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AFC Win Totals Over/Under, Divison Winner Predictions

(Image credit Mark Konezny/USA Today Sports)

Written by: Nicholas Mullick


It is almost time for the kickoff of the 2021 NFL Regular Season. Like I said my favorite part of the hype is predicting the division winners and win total odds being over or under for each NFL Team. For this article, it will be focused on my prediction for AFC teams' win totals and division winners. The win total odd numbers are the ones that were recently placed on Vegas Insider website.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (Win total odd: 11)

The Ravens have a strong team this season. Lamar Jackon is one of the top QB’s in the conference. This team did get bad news with JK Dobbins suffering a season-ending Torn ACL. But they do have depth with Gus Edwards. I am not at all confident with the current Ravens receivers except for Tight End Mark Andrews. They did spend a first-round selection on Rashod Batemen but he is already suffering from an injury and will miss time this season. Their offensive line did take a hit after trading Orlando Brown Jr. Their defense is one of the top 10 in the NFL. Their defensive line, secondary, and linebacker core has a ton of talent and depth. I am extremely high on Odafe Jayson Owheh as the replacement for Matthew Judon. This special teams core with Tucker and Sam Koch is one of the best in football. This team is the best coached in the division with John Harbaugh. I am going with the over 11 wins here for Baltimore.

Cincinnati Bengals (Win total odd: 6.5)

There is a lot of potential with the Bengals. Especially as they have a solid franchise QB in Joe Burrow. He has solid targets to throw the ball and Joe Mixon is still a good running back. They have a ton of defensive line depth including B.J Hill, Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard, and Larry Ogunjobi. But there are a ton of problems with the Bengals. First, let's start with the Offensive line as it is still completely garbage as always. Jonah Williams has been completely injury-prone, they decided to add Riley Reiff, and they did select Jackson Carman in the NFL Draft which could help them. I have no confidence in this offensive line at all. Second, this defense excluding the defensive line is not good. Especially with the secondary, excluding Jessie Bates and maybe Trae Waynes. Also, it makes zero sense that the Bengals did not draft anyone to help build the secondary. Finally, I think the biggest issue is with Head Coach Zac Taylor. I was shocked that the Bengals did not fire him at the end of last season after making questionable play calls during winnable games. Then again this is the same franchise that kept Marvin Lewis for way too long. He is absolutely on the hot seat this season. I am going to go with the under here as I think the Bengals are the worst team in the division.

Cleveland Browns (Win total odd: 10.5)

I never thought I would see the day that the Cleveland Browns would be a competent and good team. Last season legit came out of nowhere. The Browns finally found their QB of the future in Baker Mayfield. The Browns are an example of why a team needs to have a strong offensive line. During the Freddie Kitchens year, their offensive line was a complete mess and held them back. When Stefanski came in they restructured the Offensive line by drafting Jedrick Willis and signing Jack Conklin at Tackle. They even acquired Wyatt Teller last year via trade. The Browns have a ton of targets and tools for Baker Mayfield to throw the ball too. The Defense is extremely strong as well with a ton of pass rushers and run stoppers. Their secondary is the strongest part of this defense; with talent like Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, Josh Johnson, Ronnie Harrison, Grant Delpit, and even spent a 1st round pick on Greg Newsome. This team won a playoff game with improper practices without their head coach. They almost defeated the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Playoffs. I am going to go with the over 10.5 wins here.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Win total odd: 8.5)

This one is an under for me. Big Ben is not the same player that he once was and suffered a massive decline since his elbow injury. This Steelers offensive line is terrible as they did not fix it during the offseason except signing backup BJ Finny and waited till the 3rd rhound to start fixing it. I like Najee Harris but I would not have taken a running back that early as the o-line was the bigger need. The Steelers as always have a good receiver core in Juju Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool. Their defense is pretty solid. I'm not confident with their secondary except for players like Joe Haden and Minkah Fitzpatrick. They have strong Edge rushers in TJ Watt and Melvin Ingram but they don't have a strong defensive line excluding Cameron Heyward. I would have Stephon Tuitt in there but he may be out for a chunk of the season due to injury. If there is one thing that I know about the Pittsburgh Steelers is that they always play down to competition whether it is in the playoffs like last season against the Browns or in the Regular Season against the Cincinnati Bengals with a 3rd string quarterback. I see them going 7-10 this season

AFC North Division Winner: Cleveland Browns

I can't believe I am saying this but I am actually going with the Cleveland Browns winning the AFC North. I never thought in a million years that I would be saying those words. I think Cincinnati has no shot of winning the division. Pittsburgh is a complete mess right now. It is going to come down to Baltimore and Cleveland and I think Cleveland is the more complete team especially at wide receiver and running back.

AFC South

Houston Texans (Win total odd: 4)

Not going to discuss much here. I am easily taking the under here. The Texans are the worst team in the NFL and it is not even close. I don't even see how they win 4 games this season. We still have no clear answer as to what will happen to Deshaun Watson but even if he is legally in the clear, I doubt Watson plays another game for the team again. This Defense is brutally bad and I am not a fan of the team hiring David Culley as Head coach for the Texans. I got to ask why Jack Easterby is Still Here?

Jacksonville Jaguars (Win total odd: 6.5)

Congrats Jacksonville you officially have the services of Trevor Lawrence. The team already lost Travis Etienne after he suffered a foot injury. He doesn't have the best receivers to throw the ball to, except Shenault and DJ Chark. This Offensive line is so-so but can do a solid job protecting Lawrence. This defense is still a work in progress for now especially as they traded Joe Schobert to the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think this number is too high and I will go under the win total odds. I think the Jaguars will win around 4 games this season. They have plenty of rebuilding left to go with this team and I am not confident with Urban Meyer as the Head Coach of this team as of now.

Indianapolis Colts (Win total odd: 9)

I don't really know what to think of the Colts. I am a big fan of head coach Frank Reich and they have an extremely impressive defense. I would absolutely put the Colts as a top 10 defense in the NFL. But something is fishy with this offense. Maybe it's because of the injuries that the team has with Carson Wentz, Ty Hilton, Eric Fisher, Sam Tevi, and especially Quenton Nelson. The biggest from this bunch is Quenton Nelson who is the best offensive lineman in the NFL as of now. I like Carson Wentz and he needed a change of scenery. The Colts are risking it by trading a conditional 1st and a 3rd round pick for him. I am not sure if he will play week 1 as he suffered a foot injury in August. I am not confident with the receiving core as TY Hilton was placed on IR due to a Neck injury and they don’t have a ton of talent at the receiving core. I would take a shot fantasy-wise on Michael Pittman as he has a lot of potential to make an impact as a good receiver on the team. They do have Mo Alle-Cox and Jack Doyle at Tight end and they are pretty solid options for the team. I think the Colts could be in contention to win the division, but this team has a lot of injury concerns and I am going to bet the under win total odds for the Colts

Tennessee Titans (Win total odd: 9)

Ryan Tannehill has resurrected his career with the Tennessee Titans after he was almost completely ruined by the Miami Dolphins and especially Adam Gase. He performed like a completely different player as he officially had competent coaching for the first time in his career. Mike Vrabel has done a tremendous job as the head coach of the Titans. Derrick Henry is one of the best running backs that I have ever seen. While the Titans did lose Corey Davis they acquired a better receiver. Julio Jones is now free from the mess that is the Atlanta Falcons. He and AJ Brown if healthy will be one of the best receiver duos in the league. Their offensive line is still a bit of a mess after they let Jack Conklin go. The Isaiah Wilson pick was a complete disaster due to his immaturity. Hopefully, Plan B works after drafting Dilon Radunz. This defense is still pretty solid. They have an ok defensive line, especially with Jeffery Simmons. They have a good linebacker core and their secondary is still holding pretty strong. Special teams are a question mark especially at kicker as the team chose not to resign Stephen Gostkowski. Their new kicker is Sam Ficken who was inconsistent during his time with the New York Jets. I do expect this team to win around 9 games but due to how bad this division is I will go with the Over Win total.

AFC South Division Winner: Tennessee Titans

I think that the Titans have the clear advantage to win this division and I could see the Colts Challenging for the division winner spot but this team is already banged up. I'm not high on Jacksonville as they need another year to build the team. With the Houston Texans what is there to say but the worst team in the entire league. Why is Jack Easterby still here in the Texans organization again?

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (Win total odd: 11)

Josh Allen proved to everyone last year that he is the franchise quarterback that this team has been looking for since Jim Kelly. I had my doubts about Sean Mcdermott when he was originally brought in as the Head Coach of the Bills but he had proven to be a solid head coach for the team. This offense is stacked. Look at the talent that they have with receiver Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis, and Dawson Knox (TE). That is a strong receiving core. The Bills offensive line is one of the best in football and will do a solid job protecting Josh Allen. There is a question on who will start at running back, but there are solid options to choose from if it is Zack Moss, Matt Brieda, or Devin Singletary. This defense is stacked and I can see this defense being the best in the conference. This defensive line is easily the best in the NFL with talents like AJ Epenesa, Star Lotulelei, Jerry Hughes, Ed Oliver, Vernon Butler, Mario Addison, and Harrison Phillips. What is scarier is they bolstered the defensive line by using draft capital on Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr. Matt Milano, AJ Klien, and Tremaine Edmunds are a good linebacking core that performed well last season. They also have a ton of depth at the secondary. They don’t have the best special teams and it could be an issue. But Tyler Bass is a dependable option at kicker. The Buffalo Bills are my pick to represent the AFC Conference for Superbowl 56. This is around the number I think the Bills will win games but I will be going with the Over for the win total odds.

Miami Dolphins (Win total odd: 9.5)

Belichick’s disciples in his coaching tree have mainly failed in the NFL. Brian Flores so far is on the right track breaking that trend. He has heavily impressed me as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. Miami did get Tua and he had an up and down season. Flores used a starter reliever tactic with Fitzpatrick and Tua at QB. I hope it is due to him recovering from injuries as I was a fan of Tua during his time with Alabama and he can improve his performance with the Miami Dolphins. Tua has a ton of receivers to throw the ball to including Devante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gesicki. Will Fuller is a good receiver they also added during free agency. They even drafted Jaylen Waddle who I thought was the best receiver in this draft class. They have good running backs in Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed. This o-line while still, a work in progress is still pretty solid. I really love the Liam Eichenberg selection for the o-line. I like this defense as well as they have a ton of depth with the defensive line, linebackers, and the secondary. I love DE/EDGE rusher Jalen Philips and Safety Jevon Holland selections. I am going to go with the Over here.

New England Patriots (Win total odd: 9.5)

The Patriots are a very underrated team in my opinion. Last season Cam Newton was the starting quarterback and it is clear that his arm strength is not what it was last season. He was a surprising cut during the season but later a report came out that Mac Jones was teaching Cam Newton the playbook. Yes, a rookie quarterback understood the playbook more than Cam Newton did. Which explains why the Patriots made the decision to cut ties with him. I have been impressed with Mac Jones in the preseason and if he keeps this up then New England may have their QB of the future. I like New England’s running back depth especially with Damien Harris and James White. Not a big fan of the receivers for New England but I like Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry at Tight End. Their defense is going to be better than they were last year. Remember they had a chunk of their starting defense not playing last year due to opting out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic. Their defense was solid as well last season without them but imagine how well they will perform with their return to the team. I am going to go with the over here as I do see New England winning 10 games this season.

New York Jets (Win total odd: 6)

The Jets are once again in another rebuild after the team messed it up last time with Sam Darnold and Adam Gase. The team decided to select Zach Wilson in the 2021 NFL Draft and hire Robert Saleh as their head coach. I love this hiring more than Adam Gase and Todd Bowles combined. Zach Wilson will be the week 1 starter and he has something that Sam Darnold did not. A ton of receivers and a good offensive line. The Tight Ends are a mess again and I would stay far away from them in fantasy. This Defense is still a work in progress. Their defensive line is the best part of this entire team. The Linebackers excluding CJ Mosley are extremely young. Excluding the Safeties Marcus Maye and Lamarcus Joyner this secondary is not good at all as the cornerbacks are extremely young and lack experience. The Jets once again have a rotational door of kickers with Matt Ammendola as the new kicker. If the Jets did not suffer a ton of injuries during the beginning of training camp I would have gone with the over, but I will go with the under with the projected win total.

AFC East Division Winner Buffalo Bills

No question as I don't see the Jets winning the division. The Patriots are unproven with Mac Jones. I could see Miami challenge Buffalo, but I think Buffalo is a more complete team.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (Win total odd: 8.5)

I debated this one a lot as I do see them winning around 8 or 9 wins. But, I am going to go with the under here. This will be Lock’s last chance as he did not play well last season and he will have to deal with Teddy Bridgewater as the backup. Melvin Gordan is a good running back for the team but the problem with him is durability. I like Javonte Williams as a cuff back option in fantasy. They have receivers for the quarterback to throw the ball to like Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant. The Broncos have a decent offensive line but need to play consistently this season. The Broncos defense is solid. Hopefully, both Von Miller and Bradley Chubb are healthy to play with each other the entire season. Their defensive line and linebackers are okay. Their secondary should be better with signing both Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller and drafted Patrick Surtain. Another thing I want to say about the Broncos is that I don’t think Vic Fangio is a good coach. If they fall apart this season then it would not be a surprise if Fangio was fired.

Kansas City Chiefs (Win total odd: 12.5)

Kansas City had a bad break last season as both of their starting tackles or guards opted out or suffered season-ending injuries. The Chiefs will still be one of the top teams in the AFC as the gang is still here. Including Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Mecole Hardman. Their offensive line was restructured after trading for Orlando Brown Jr. and selecting Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. Their defense is still good as well. With Edge rushers Chris Jones and Frank Clark. Chris Jones and Jarran Reed are good defensive tackles. Their secondary is solid with Tyrann Mathieu, Charvarius Ward, and Daniel Sorensen. The Chiefs' special teams are good and Harrison Butker is one of the best kickers in the NFL. Andy Reid is still the Head Coach of the team and with him and the gang still around they should win a majority of their games. I am going with the over win total odd here.

Las Vegas Raiders (Win total odd: 7)

I don’t understand the approach that the Raiders took during the offseason. The strongest part of the team last year was their Offensive line and what they decided to do was cut or trade a lot of them. This is not a smart move as an offensive line is extremely important to how well an Offense performs. I do like the Alex Leatherwood selection but what in the world are they going to do at center and guard. Incognito is coming off a season-ending injury and who knows if he will perform as well as he has been. I really feel for Derek Carr as the guy is easily the most underrated quarterback in the NFL. I like Darren Waller as a Tight End but I don't like other receivers the Raiders have. Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake will be a strong backfield for other teams to deal with. One thing is for sure this Raiders Defense is garbage. It is easily one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Excluding bringing in Yannick Ngakoue and drafting Trevon Moehrig, what other improvements did they make on the defense? They did draft other defenders but they're mainly going to be depth on this team. I am going to take the under 7 wins.

Los Angeles Chargers (Win total odd: 9.5)

The Los Angeles Chargers made the right choice taking Justin Herbert in the 2020 NFL Draft 6th overall. He has performed extremely well during his rookie season. The Chargers made the right decision firing Anthony Lynn as he made some questionable coaching decisions last season. Hopefully, they hired the right coach in Brandon Stanley who is a disciple from Sean McVay’s coaching tree. This is an extremely interesting team. I like what they have on offense as they have good receivers to throw to with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jared Cook. They Built the o-line by signing Corey Linsley, Bryan Bulaga, and drafting Rashawn Slater Jr. Hopefully Derwin James and Joey Bosa stay healthy this season as last year proved that their defense was a complete mess without both players on their team. I am very high on Asante Samuel Jr. as I thought he was going to go in the first round. I am going to have to go under here because this team has always been lackluster on special teams and it has cost them multiple games during Philip Rivers' years and Justin Herbert’s rookie season.

AFC West Division Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

No question with who the division winner will be here. I don't think the Raiders are any good and the Chargers and Broncos have a ton of question marks. I feel the most confident with the Chiefs.


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