Written by James Davis and Perry Griffith IV
Welcome to another edition of Blitz the Bookie. Here are the picks for week 6!
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday 3:25 PM ET
Last week the Cowboys did just enough to bring us in the money, but we did get a good look at what the Cowboys can do, and this pick is a full-on bet against Dak Prescott and that offense. Dak is completing only 61.8% of his passes, and of all eligible passers Dak is 29th in pass yards per attempt at 6.67, and he has a quarterback rating of 81.4. Prescott has been sacked 16 times, tied for 5th most in the league. With the numbers being what they are for Dak Prescott I can’t help but look at this Jaguars D, who comes into this game ranked #1 in total defense and defensive passing yards per game, and like what I see. Ezekiel Elliott is a stud but being one dimensional against this defense will leave you with a loss. Jaguars offensively do just enough to win this one by more than 3. Take Jaguars -3!
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. Oakland Raiders, Sunday 1 PM ET (Game in London)
This is largely a pick based on taking Pete Carroll’s experience over Gruden’s. In a game where both teams have to travel almost halfway around the world, I see the Raiders’ struggles continuing for one more game as they look forward to their upcoming bye week. Neither of these teams are very high-scoring with Seattle averaging 23.2pts and Oakland averaging 21.4pts per game, so it feels like we’ll get a pretty low total scoring contest. However, 2.5 points is not enough to scare me from this pick. The Seahawks are just 2-3 so far this year, but with the experience of Carroll and Wilson, they’ll be able to handle this Mack-less Raiders team. Take Seattle -2.5!
#16 Miami Hurricanes (-7) at Virginia Cavaliers, Saturday 7 PM ET
The road team in this matchup has been 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 meetings. Miami has won this matchup straight up 4-1 in the previous 5 meetings with an average victory of 15pts. Last year when these two faced off Virginia jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but Miami found a way to come back and win 44-28. Virginia will jump out to an early lead once again as they will be fresh coming off a bye week but like last year it will not be enough. Miami defensively is too dominant upfront to allow Virginia to sustain a lead. Miami's offense is averaging 41.5pts per game to Virginia’s 30.2. Miami is just the better team overall, and my model has them as double-digit favorites. Take Miami -7!
#23 South Florida (-7) at Tulsa, Friday 7 PM ET
I have made a few friends living here in Denver that attended the University of Tulsa. I’ve learned that home football games were a pretty casual activity for the student body. For some reason, they seem to usually play on Thursday or Friday nights as opposed to Saturdays. So my point is there’s no home field advantage I’m worried about here. Additionally, I’m confused why they’re not getting more points here vs. an undefeated #23 USF team. Tulsa was a 17.5 point underdog vs. a 4-1 Houston team, and Tulsa covered by a few points. Their only straight up win this year came against an FCS school, Central Arkansas. USF, who scored 58 points last week, will not be slowed down in this Friday Night Lights matchup, and I like them giving 7.
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