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Degenerate Menace (-411) - NFL Week 10 Bets


Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

by Jeremy Dennis

@menace524


They say that those that are happiest learn all the way through life. This week, I have learned three things that have increased my understanding of football gambling:

  1. Stop looking down upon rookie and back-up quarterbacks. When I was growing up (back when they didn’t have facemasks), if you had a back-up quarterback starting on your football team, you loaded up on the opposing team and took the opposing team’s defense in fantasy. Nowadays, that is never the case. The group of Herbert, Tua, and Burrow have been lights out thus far. The back-ups, Flacco, Luton, and that Gilbert kid in Dallas was also able to cover their respective games. This ain’t your daddy’s NFL!

  2. Don’t ever bet against the computer! Sure, Dallas was playing their fourth quarterback, but it doesn’t matter. The computer is not biased for things like what I just wrote in #1. Lo and behold, the Cowboys cover and were 20 yards away from stealing one against an undefeated team.

  3. I have got to stop betting in tiers. I am running like 65% on all of my crap bets and the top picks stink like the NFC East. From now on - three or four top picks and everyone else. I will figure this stuff out yet!

Last week YTD

Record 7-7 65-65-1 (50.0%)

Top Picks 0-3 13-17 (43.3%)

Betting Result DOWN 38.1 Units DOWN 109.7 Units


TOP PICKS (10 Units)


New York Giants (+3.5) vs Philadelphia


It really is difficult to take any favorite in the NFC Hot Garbage Division that has a number of more than three. Add the fact that the underdog is playing at home and there you have a Top Pick! Note that Philly only beat the Giants by one at home earlier in the season.


Miami (-2.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers


The battle of two rookies will descend upon Miami on Sunday. The computer, which has sided with the Chargers for a while, has grown tired of L.A.’s ability to hold leads. Conversely, Brian Flores seriously needs to be a Coach of the Year candidate. Since starting the 2019 season 0-7, the Dolphins are 10-7 in the past 17 and are second in the AFC East. Impressive.


Baltimore (-7) at New England


Baltimore seems to have righted the ship against a tough Indianapolis team on the road. Cam was all smiles in their Monday night victory, a walk-off field goal against the winless Jets. Mr. Newton really hasn’t done well against good defenses and should have trouble again here.


THE REST OF THE STORY (5 Units)


Pittsburgh (-7) vs Cincinnati


Already going against the law of fading rookie quarterbacks. Plus, it’s the Burrow! That Pittsburgh defense though...


Washington (+3.5) at Detroit


Could Alex Smith be getting his sea-legs back? Had a strong fourth quarter in a stalled comeback attempt against the Giants. Detroit was supposed to be a dark horse to win the NFC North. Yeah, not so much.


Indianapolis (+2) at Tennessee


Say it together with me, “If Philip Rivers protects the ball, the Colts win.” I know, it is like a broken record.


Houston (+3) at Cleveland


I really don’t trust either team in the situation. However, with the underdogs going at about a 60% clip this season, it makes sense to go with the Texans.


Chicago (+3) vs Minnesota


The Vikings are certainly up and coming after winning the last two. However, the Bears are 3-1 against the spread this season at home. The computer likes them as an underdog play.


Tampa Bay (-4.5) at Carolina


Tampa won by double digits in their first meeting. While the Panthers will lose Christian McCaffrey again, they have played well without him. Brady is looking for a bounce-back game after that dumpster fire on Sunday Night.


Denver (+5.5) at Las Vegas


Las Vegas is making a playoff push after a victory over the Chargers puts them in second place in the division. It has been sort of a lost season for the Broncos who can’t seem to find an identity. The computer thinks the Raiders will win, but less than a touchdown.


Buffalo (-2.5) at Arizona


Looks like a shootout between two second-year quarterbacks. If Tua can beat the Cardinals by three in Phoenix, why can’t the Bills?


Seattle (+2) at L.A. Rams


Not feeling great about this one. L.A. has been very inconsistent from a betting perspective. Seattle is coming off a turnover-riddled game against the Bills. Look for a Russell Wilson bounceback and a win outright for the Hawks.


Jacksonville (+13.5) at Green Bay


No idea what the computer is thinking here. Maybe with new quarterback Luton (sans Stache) and a cover versus Houston that the Jags won’t lose by two touchdowns?


San Francisco (+11) at New Orleans


Yeah, I got nothing.


Let’s hope that the underdog trend continues. Now, go out there and make some money!


Enjoy!



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