by Jeremy Dennis
Week 14, for the most part, was pretty tame. There were 12 games that were mostly decided by the time that their fourth quarters rolled around. However, for those that had money on ATL-LA, BAL-CLE, GB-DET, and KC-MIA, it was an emotional roller coaster.
First, there was the Teams Who are Trying Not to Win: Atlanta and the Chargers were battling in L.A. when the Falcons got out to an early lead. This lead held until the half when Los Angeles inexplicably blew a field goal chance with some of the worst time management seen after a 15 play drive. The second half provided us with Santa Claus played by Matt Ryan who was giving out gifts to the Charger defense including one that allowed the game-winning field goal. With the line bouncing between the two teams, it was a cliffhanger betting wise.
Next, there were two games called The Tale of Down by Two Score Strategy The Lions and Dolphins (both around +7) found themselves down 10 with less than three minutes remaining. Both teams drove into scoring position. What do you do? The KC and GB bettors were screaming, “Go for the TD you losers! We have a better chance of the cover!” While the underdog gamblers were all, “Kick the damn field goal!” Needless to say, the kickers kicked and the dogs covered the points.
Finally, there is To be Number 1, You Must Number 2: Look, I don’t know what happened with Lamar Jackson on Monday night. Did he have a tummy ache? Was he really pinching a quarter going to the locker room? Who knows. Whatever happened caused him to come back with a vengeance and win the game for the Ravens (+1 to -4.5 depending on when you got it). Then the Browns dropped a number two with all of that last play crap resulting, you guessed it, another two (points). Those with the Browns +3 and more get crapped on and lose their bet.
Let’s get off the pot and make those picks!
Last week YTD
Record 8-8 109-94-3 (53.7%)
Top Picks 1-3 23-23-1 (50.0%)
Betting Result DOWN 14.5 Units DOWN 27.2 Units
TOP PICKS (10 Units)
Tampa Bay (-6) at Atlanta
I am dead serious when I say that I do not want to bet the Falcons. That team needs a complete overhaul. Tampa seems to have gotten their swagger back with a good win over the Vikings. Could be ugly in the A.
Miami (-1) vs New England
Speaking of done, how about those Patriots? Miami is vying for a playoff spot. Josh McDaniels might be in Tampa after the game trying to talk Tom Terrific into coming back to Foxboro.
Denver (+7) vs Buffalo
I think this one is a case of the line being too big. Buffalo just came off an emotional Sunday night win against the Steelers. They have pretty much sealed up the division. Might overlook this game a bit especially in Mile High. Denver had probably their most complete win against the Panthers in Charlotte.
Pittsburgh (-12) at Cincinnati
So Pittsburgh has lost two consecutive games after winning 11. Look, I am no genius, but that Burrowless Cincinnati team sucks. Did you see what the LAST PLACE TEAM IN THE NFC EAST DID TO THEM?!?
BAH-HUMBUG (5 Units)
L.A. Chargers (+3.5) at Las Vegas
Vegas is slipping. The Chargers actually won a football game. This contest looks to be a field goal either way.
San Francisco (-3) at Dallas
The Niners lost a tough one to a really good defense in Washington. This just in - Dallas does not have a really good defense.
Detroit (+11) at Tennessee
Man, the computer really doesn’t like Tennessee. Detroit probably has enough firepower to keep it within 10. Derrick Henry might rush for 678 yards in this game though.
Chicago (+3.5) at Minnesota
Did Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense turn a corner? They played well against a bad Houston defense. Minnesota’s defense isn’t great either. Another game where a field goal decides it?
Washington (+5.5) vs Seattle
Would you believe that the Football Team is going for six consecutive covers? The NFC Hot Garbage Division leader has a defense that almost outscored the San Francisco offense on their own last week. Seattle has been hot and cold of late with the hot coming in Week 14 against the Jets. Of course, it was the Jets. This might be the game of the week.
New York Jets (+17) at L.A. Rams
Did you know that the Jets have scored on their first possession seven consecutive weeks? Sometimes that helps and sometimes it doesn’t. Like last week when they lost to Seattle by 37. Rams might be looking past the Jets after lambasting the Patriots on Thursday.
Philadelphia (+7) at Arizona
Do teams have enough film to play defense against Jalen Hurts now? It remains to be seen. Arizona is a team that has been inconsistent but played well against the Giants in their previous game. Resurgent Philly makes it close.
New York Giants (+4) vs Cleveland
Simply because the Browns are due for a letdown and this is a perfect opportunity to do it.
And now, more picks the computer likes and the human doesn’t! Brought to you by the Grinch (author’s note: these picks are hitting at like 65% this season [unofficial])!
Carolina (+10) at Green Bay
Houston (+7) at Indianapolis
New Orleans (+3) vs Kansas City
Jacksonville (+13) at Baltimore
Have fun with the games this weekend. Hopefully, all of your Christmas shopping is done!