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Degenerate Menace (-411) - NFL Week 4 Bets


Photo by Jason Getz, USA Today Sports

by Jeremy Dennis

@menace524


As a sports bettor, I like numbers even if sometimes the numbers don’t like me. So, here is a fun fact: If you take the odds that the Atlanta Falcons would lose the Super Bowl against New England, the Week 2 game against Dallas and the previous game against Chicago at the end of each contest’s third quarter, your chance of losing all three games outright would be roughly 1 in 100,000. I know I haven’t had the best start to the gambling season, but at least I am not Dan Quinn. The good news is that he could probably get a job coaching defense in the Big 12. Speaking of long odds, how excited are we to see Denver and the Jets on Thursday night? Any takers? Anyone? Hello?


The numbers improved slightly over the previous week, but we are still letting the new system sort itself out. Here are the results:


Last week: Record 8-8 (50.0%) Top Picks 2-2 (50%) Betting Result: UP 7.0 Units

YTD: Record 23-24-1 (48.9%) Top Picks 6-7 (46.1%) Betting Result: DWN 22.4 Units


TOP PICKS (10 Units)


Green Bay (-7) vs Atlanta


I really have a hard time betting Atlanta for any reason (1-2 ATS). Green Bay has been throwing numbers all over the yard to the tune of 36 points per contest. If Nick Foles can throw three touchdown passes in a quarter against the Falcons, what on earth is Aaron Rodgers going to do to them? This could be bad.


Baltimore (-13) at Washington


Not much to say here except that Philadelphia is a terrible football team if the Redskins beat them by 10. I really have very little desire to bet anyone in the NFC Hot Garbage Division. If Kyler Murray blew the Football Team out of the water, the reigning MVP should bounce back after a sub-par performance in Kansas City.


Seattle (-6.5) at Miami


I understand that I gripe a good bit when I lose on a back-door cover (thanks a lot, Rams defense against the Bills!), but in this case, I would like to thank the hopeful MVP, Russell Wilson, for chucking the ball deep to D.K. Metcalf at the end of the game instead of going for a 3 pointer to win. In other news, I do not fear the Beard. Hawks by a lot.


TIER TWO (7 Units)


San Francisco (-7) vs Philadelphia


I told you, I am not betting anyone in the NFC Hot Garbage Division (0-4 ATS last week). San Francisco beat the Giants by 27 with most of their offense players coming off of some sort of developmental squad. The Niners might have more sacks than the Eagles have points.


Minnesota (+5) at Houston


Raise your hand if you thought both of these teams were going to be 0-3 in 2020. That is what I thought. I don’t know if it is possible that either of these teams can beat anyone by more than five points.


Jacksonville (+3) at Cincinnati


Joe Burrow and the Bengals are 3-0 against the spread to start the season. I always have a soft spot in my heart for Gardner Minshew. Let’s roll with the Stache again and hope that he doesn’t bite us in the butt like he did at Miami.


Indianapolis (-2) at Chicago


I was teetering on this one for a MEH bet since I don’t really know what the benching of Trubisky is going to do for the Bears. I think that Foles and Rivers are equitable under center, but the edge will go to the Colts on defense.


MEH BETS (4 Units)


Cleveland (+4.5) at Dallas

New Orleans (-4) at Detroit

Arizona (-3) at Carolina

Buffalo (-3) at Las Vegas


BETS I HATE THE COMPUTER FOR (1 Unit)


Denver (Even) at New York Jets

L.A. Chargers (+7.5) at Tampa Bay

New England (+7) at Kansas City

N.Y. Giants (+13) at L.A. Rams (DAMN YOU COMPUTER!!!!!!!)


Here is hoping y’all score like the Falcons in the first three quarters of football games! Enjoy the week!



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