by Jeremy Dennis, @menace524
Football betting should really have a disclaimer. It is very bad for one’s health. Take the Detroit-Atlanta game. Let’s say that you took the Falcons and the money line. Not feeling great at the end of the first quarter, down 7-0. A good second and the money is looking good at 14-10. A sloppy third quarter has your heart palpitating since the ATL didn’t score, but still winning at 14-13. Then comes the back and forth last period. A turnover and subsequent field goal now has a loser at 16-14. However, the Falcons put together a great drive and have gotten into field goal range. All they have to do is line it up and….wait a minute? What is Gurley doing?!? He is scoring is what he is doing. With the 2 point conversion, now winning at 22-16. Is 1:04 too much time? Yep. Lions score, kick the point, and away goes the Moneyline. I guess it could be worse. You could have had the Browns -3.5 and watch them miss an extra point at the end to cover. Yeah, I did that...
Last week YTD
Record 6-8 54-48-1 (52.9%)
Top Picks 2-1 13-11 (54.2%)
Betting Result UP 4.6 Units DOWN 9.6 Units
TOP PICKS (10 Units)
Carolina (-2.5) vs Atlanta
Why would anybody bet the Falcons right now? Plus, Carolina has been an undervalue play all season including a cover at New Orleans last week. No reason they cannot win by a field goal or better.
Green Bay (-6.5) vs Minnesota
Another interesting line. Sure Minnesota is coming off a bye week, but they are a clunker leaking some serious oil. Green Bay embarrassed Houston and has already beaten the Vikings in Minneapolis by double digits. Probably another blowout in the offing.
New Orleans (-4) at Chicago
New Orleans is already a better football team than the Bears on paper. Then, this week, the drama came out that Nick Foles already knows that the offensive play calling stinks when it comes through his helmet. Not a good look for the Monsters of the Midway.
BETTER THAN AVERAGE BETS (7 Units)
Pittsburgh (+4) at Baltimore
Not impressed by the 2020 version of the Ravens. They might win but 4 is a big number.
L.A. Rams (-4) at Miami
That pass rush against a rookie quarterback not named Joe Burrow? Sign me up!
San Francisco (+3) at Seattle
Seems like the 49ers are on the come up after a huge win against New England in Foxboro. Seattle had a disappointing finish in Arizona. The trend says to go with the Niners.
WHATEVER BETS (4 Units)
Cleveland (-2.5) vs Las Vegas - Is Baker good? Is he bad? Who the hell knows?
Tampa Bay (-10.5) at New York Giants
Buffalo (-3.5) vs New England - The end of a dynasty?
L.A. Chargers (-3) at Denver
CLEVELAND KICKER BETS (1 Unit)
Indianapolis (-2.5) at Detroit
Cincinnati (+6) vs Tennessee - DON’T FADE THE BURROW!!!
N.Y. Jets (+19.5) at Kansas City
Philly (-7.5) vs Dallas
Please note that the computer says Dallas for the last one but it obviously doesn’t take into account the quarterback situation. Things are looking no bueno in Big D. Enjoy your football weekend!