By Jeremy Dennis
We are at the point in the football proceedings where things have started to go pear-shaped. For the third week in a row, a top 10 team has been felled by an unranked opponent. The 49ers are undefeated and hung a number on Carolina last week! In Menace Land, we have learned a valuable lesson. DON’T PICK AGAINST THE COMPUTER!! That move made a 55% college week turn into a 44% college week. The whole reason I developed a formula was that I clearly couldn’t pick winners on my own! For instance, the rest of the college picks not in the Baker’s Dozen Plus One went 27-18 last week. Case proved...
College YTD Top Picks: 47-39-4 (54.7%) YTD All College Picks 243-198-8 (55.1%)
NFL YTD Top Picks: 19-13 (59.4%) YTD All NFL Picks 62-58-1 (51.7%)
Total YTD All Picks: 306-258-9 (54.3%)
Now for the Degenerate Menace Baker’s Dozen Plus One!
Florida (+6) vs Georgia: If you read my “Walking the Line” segment, you will see that I have found a trend that the line “influencers” don’t exactly do a very good job of predicting the games correctly. Since I have been tracking this game, the line moved from Georgia (-4.5) to (-6). Didn’t this team lose to South Carolina at home? Florida’s only loss was in Baton Rouge. I will take those points.
Auburn (-19.5) vs Ole Miss: As long as Auburn doesn’t play top 10 teams on the road, their offense is pretty good. Average score against Mississippi State and Arkansas at home? 54-17. Bring on the Rebels!
SMU (+6) at Memphis: Could be the game of the year for Conference USA. Memphis had its hands full with Tulsa last week in a 42-41 win. SMU eeked out a three-point win on the road as well. Let’s go for a “last team with the ball wins” mentality. As long as Memphis doesn’t win by seven.
Oklahoma State (-2.5) vs TCU: In the wild and wacky Big 12, it is hard to predict games. Coming off back-to-back losses against Iowa State and Kansas State, TCU up and beats #15 Texas. The Cowboys lose to Texas Tech and Baylor, then go off and beat Iowa State on the road. When in doubt, I like to go with the better run game. All hail Chuba Hubbard!
Baylor (-18) vs West Virginia: Ladies and Gentlemen, meet your Big 12 leading Baylor Bears! Didn’t see that coming, did we? The Mountaineers have been outscored by an average of 44-19 in their last three conference games. Not a good thing when the Bears are next on the schedule.
Appalachian State (-15) vs Georgia Southern: While the Eagles are 4-3, their biggest win to date has been versus Coastal Carolina. Their only conference loss was a 37-24 to the presumed #2 team in the Sun Belt in Lousiana-Lafayette. The Mountaineers are undefeated and ten points better than Louisiana.
Louisiana-Lafayette (-22.5) vs Texas State: Speaking of the Ragin’ Cajuns, they are 5-2 on the season with the only losses on the slate being Mississippi State and the aforementioned App. State. Otherwise, they have covered everyone else. Texas State is 1-5 against the spread.
Arkansas State (-2) at Louisiana-Monroe: I AM FEELING SOME SUN BELT THIS WEEK! Why not? I was 4-0 against the spread in SBC games last week. Another case of a good team playing a not so good team. I don’t really have any other good feeling except I am listening to my computer.
Air Force (-14.5) vs Army: Air Force has been a surprise sitting at 6-2. In the last three games, they are 3-0 against the spread. On the other end of the spectrum, Army has been quite the disappointment this season at 3-5. Their last four games have seen them winless against the number. The streak shall continue this week.
Wake Forest (-7.5) vs North Carolina State: When you think of the second-place team in the ACC, who do ya’ got? FSU - no, Miami - nope, Pitt - negative. The correct answer is the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At 6-1, they have control of their own destiny (not that they are beating Clemson in a few weeks, but let’s go with it). N.C. State is coming off a 21 point loss at Boston College. They are also starting a redshirt freshman at QB for the first time this week.
Buffalo (-9.5) vs Washington: Ok, so 17 points was a bit of a stretch when I took Minnesota to cover against the Deadskins last week. Buffalo’s defense is looking to recover after getting demolished by the Eagles. As of this writing, Case Keenum is not out of concussion protocol. Dwayne Haskins will be the reason Washington gets crushed this week.
Oakland (-2.5) vs Detroit: Oakland has covered the number in three of the last four games. Detroit is actually 2-1 on the road against the spread with those two wins being Philly (outright) and Green Bay (loss by one). Because this is less than a field goal, let’s go with the home team.
New England (-3.5) vs Baltimore: I am probably not going to bet against the Patriots for the rest of the year. Lamar Jackson is good but will be schemed out of commission by the New England coaching staff.
Denver (+3) vs Cleveland: Freddie Kitchens has not been cooking as coach of the Browns and they have lost the last three against the spread. Denver is 4-1 in their last five vs the number including beating a (+6) in a last-second loss at Indy last week. The defense continues the Broncos streak this week.
Will another top-ten college team go down this week? How is your fantasy team? Are you up on your NFL team info? For the answers to all of this, check out the previews and info at www.blitzalytics.com. Enjoy your Halloween and good luck with the slate of games. It promises to be a good one!