By Jeremy Dennis
Another week of football pandemonium! App. State goes down. Baylor needed a special teams play to save a three-point victory. Auburn beat Ole Miss by 1 at home. Then there was the New England Patriots. Getting trucked by Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in primetime. At Chateau de Menace, we are trying to figure out another algorithm to help pick which computer picks are the best picks. In the last two weeks, if you would have bet on all my college top picks, you would be two games under .500. If you would have gone to the betting page on www.blitzalytics.com, and bet the rest of the picks, you would be 18 games over .500. C’est la vie...
College YTD Top Picks: 51-44-5 (53.7%) YTD All College Picks 270-217-9 (55.4%)
NFL YTD Top Picks: 22-14 (61.1%) YTD All NFL Picks 69-64-1 (51.9%)
Total YTD All Picks: 306-258-9 (54.2%)
Now for the Degenerate Menace Baker’s Dozen Plus One!
Wisconsin (-9.5) vs Iowa: Do you want to talk about a pissed off football team? Wisconsin followed up an upset loss to Illinois with a butt-whoopin by Ohio State. They have had to stew on that since they were idle last week. Iowa has only had one road test this season, a loss to Michigan. I look for the Badgers to roll.
Florida Atlantic (-10) vs Florida International: Did you know that the only team to cover a spread against the Ohio State Buckeyes is Florida Atlantic? The Flying Kiffins are 7-2 against the number this year and poised to get to the Conference USA Championship Game. Florida International has not covered their last three ATS. This rivalry game might turn into a blood-letting.
Air Force (-21) at New Mexico: New Mexico is “cover your eyes” bad this year. Air Force is coming off a tough victory against Army. The Falcons shouldn’t have much problem with the Lobos this week.
Ole Miss (-28) vs New Mexico State: Speaking of the State of New Mexico, the Lobos’ neighbor to the north is possibly even more putrid. Ole Miss has got a fire under their butts after almost knocking off #11 Auburn on the Plains. It should be a smooth ride for the Rebs.
Georgia (-17) vs Missouri: Shall we talk about Missouri failures away from home? At Wyoming - Lost by 6. At Vandy - Lost by 7. At Kentucky - Lost by 22. So, I am sure they will have no problem covering a number against a Top 10 Georgia team who is on the doorstep of College Football Playoff consideration in Athens. Yeah, not really.
Georgia State (-2.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: The Panthers have really gotten it rolling winning the last four games and covering each spread. Since Louisiana-Monroe almost beat Florida State in Week 2, they have gone 1-5 ATS. Georgia State is going to put a stamp on their side of the Sun Belt after this game.
Oklahoma (-14) vs Iowa State: Oklahoma has had problems with Iowa State lately. The Cyclones have beaten the oddsmakers the last three years including an upset outright in 2017. The Sooners are licking their wounds after getting upset by Kansas State in Manhattan. I think the Sooners will be ready for a stretch run and they will need to put up some big numbers.
Kansas State (+7) at Texas: The last two Longhorns games have been a two-point win at home against KANSAS and a 10 point loss to TCU. Why wouldn’t Kansas State, who just beat Kansas by 38 in Lawrence, be able to win outright?
South Carolina (-5) vs App. State: I am anticipating a team letdown from the Mountaineers after a deflating loss versus Georgia Southern. Playing for the Sun Belt Championship is a small beans compared to being considered in the New Year’s Six games. I expect South Carolina to take advantage.
Washington State (-7.5) at California: After losing four straight games against the oddsmakers and being called fat by their coach, the Cougars have won the last two against the number and almost beat Oregon outright. The Golden Bears, on the other hand, have lost the last two against Oregon State and Utah after going toe-to-toe with Oregon. Washington State continues the trend on Saturday.
Oakland (-1) vs L.A. Chargers: Both teams are coming off big wins at home against NFC North opponents. The question is whether both teams will suffer a hangover in this game. Just like me last weekend, it is always better to be home when you are hungover.
Chicago (-2.5) vs Detroit: Aren’t the Lions ranked 32nd in total defense this season. Could the Bears possibly win by a field goal? Maybe? Just this once?
Baltimore (-10) at Cincinnati: I am now bitter at Baltimore for two things: Outplaying New England last week and ruining my perfect NFL Top Picks and letting Cincinnati back-door cover the last time they met in Baltimore. I will be stubborn and pick this again. At least the starter at quarterback is Ryan Finley and not Andy Dalton.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) vs L.A. Rams: Since losing the first two games both against the spread and outright, the Steelers have been a money-making machine going 5-1 ATS since. Plus, the one loss was by a point to the Dolphins. The Rams have been uneven and are coming off a bye week. Let’s hope that Los Angeles has to play catch-up at Heinz (yes, I absolutely went there).
This weekend will play host to one of the biggest regular-season college football match-ups in recent memory. Hopefully, the game will be close (not really, the computer thinks Alabama -7 is the way to go) and comes down to the wire. For all things football, go read the stuff at www.blitzalytics.com. Have fun this weekend and stay warm!