Degenerate Menace (-411) - Week 13


Photo by Matt Lunsford, The Mercury

By Jeremy Dennis

@menace524


What a weird week here at the Chateau. It started with inadvertently typing the wrong team in my picks on Tuesday (you could not pay me enough money to pick Akron in any instance). Things were looking up after the early games Saturday, then crap hit the fan during the evening games. Waking up on Sunday, I found that we finished 5-0-1 in college (yay!). Then followed an NFL Sunday Sh*t Show. Isn’t gambling grand?


College YTD Top Picks: 61-53-5 (53.5%) YTD All College Picks 319-264-11 (54.7%)


NFL YTD Top Picks: 27-17 (61.3%) YTD All NFL Picks 80-79-2 (50.3%)


Total YTD All Picks: 400-342-14 (53.9%)


Two regular-season weeks left of college! Let’s get to the Degenerate Menace Baker’s Dozen Plus One!


College


Wyoming (-7) vs Colorado State: If you look at the Cowboys’ record against the spread, you will see that they are 6-3. Not bad. Now, consider the fact that two of their three losses were by a half-point, I would say that is pretty good. The Rams are 6-3 ATS and should have been better if not for a Pick Six by Air Force at the end of last week’s game. I think Wyoming looks better with the eye test.


Kansas State (+2.5) at Texas Tech: If you have been reading this column from the beginning, you have noticed that I have done well with Kansas State. Especially when they are underdogs. While the game against the Mountaineers was disappointing for them, I foresee a bounce-back week in Lubbock.


Air Force (-22.5) at New Mexico: This is the make-up game for two weeks ago where I picked Air Force to cover. The stance doesn’t change hereafter the Lobos got whomped by Boise State.


Miami-Florida (-20.5) “at” Florida International: The “at” basically stands for “not really an away game” as FIU is only 15 miles away from The U. The Hurricanes have been on an uptick lately covering four of their last five. The Panthers have been playing like they have been infested by ticks, losing their last four ATS.


Navy (-3.5) vs SMU: Despite the battering by the Fighting Irish in their previous game, The Midshipmen are a good football team, standing at 8-2 on the season. SMU, standing at 9-1, seems to be having trouble on defense. They gave up a half-century to East Carolina and have been allowing 40 points per game to their opponents over the last 5. With Navy’s ball-control offense, SMU may not get as many touches and therefore not score as much. That is the hope, anyway.


Marshall (-7) at Charlotte: Marshall has won 5 games in a row including Florida Atlantic. They seem to be peaking at the right time as they lead the C-USA East. Charlotte has won three in a row, but the victories have been against the lower half of the conference schedule. The 49ers will need another week to become bowl eligible.


Virginia (-17) vs Liberty: When I was doing this computer thing last year with a different formula, the computer picked Liberty to cover against the Cavaliers and the outcome was a 45-24 loss against a similar spread. Enter the new formula that is doing 4 percentage points better than the old one. I am thinking we might have a similar outcome from a score perspective.


Tennessee (+4) at Missouri: If there was a Dumpster Fire Virus, then the Volunteers just passed it to the Tigers. While the Vols have actually won four of their last five (only loss to Alabama), Missouri has been “Cover Your Eyes” bad in their four consecutive losses. They have scored 27 points in four games. The trusty calculator says that is 6.75 points per contest.


Georgia (-13.5) vs Texas A&M: With Georgia standing at #4 in the Playoff Ranking, do you honestly think that they are going to let a spirited Texas A&M team get in their way? If Clemson can beat them 24-10, why can’t Georgia?


Wake Forest (-7) vs Duke: OK, we are going to look past the Demon Deacons last two games which were humiliating losses to Clemson and Virginia Tech. What we are going to focus on is Duke stinking up the joint in their last four including a 49-6 clunker versus Syracuse at home. That is fair and unbiased reporting, right?


NFL


New England (-6.5) vs Dallas: I told you that I was going to pick New England for the rest of the year. Sure, that was before they got destroyed by Baltimore. But, I am 1-0 since….


Detroit (-3.5) at Washington: If Sam Darnold can beat the Redskins in Maryland by 24, I am sure that Jeff Driskell can beat this sorry team by 4, right?


Atlanta (-4) vs Tampa Bay: What in the name of Pete happened to the Atlanta Falcons since their bye week? Were they visited by the Ghosts of Defenses Past? After allowing 35 points per game before the bye, they are averaging 6 points on defense in two games after it. Not against patsies mind you, this is against the top two teams in the NFC South. Now comes Jameis Winston. He has been giving the ball away more than the ladies give samples at Costco on Saturdays.


Baltimore (-3) at Los Angeles (Rams): The Rams have only scored 53 points in the last three games. Only one of those games is against a true playoff contender in Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson has apparently found the secret sauce because his last four games saw the Ravens offense score 157 points. Three of the four teams in that streak were the Pats, Texans, and Seahawks. L.A. could be in for a heap of trouble.


Let me remind you to head to www.blitzalytics.com for all of my picks. While, I know the top picks for college haven’t exactly been panning out, if you would have bet all of the college picks my program chose, you would be sitting on a good chunk of change. I would have been if gambling were legal. So get in there and make some picks!


#betting #JeremyDennis