By Jeremy Dennis
@menace524
Apparently several mirrors were broken at the Chateau de Menace this week. We had no fewer than eight bad beats on the college front this week which turned a possible 32-19 week to a 24-27 week. It does make me feel better that we are improving on the top college picks (7-3). WE WON’T, HOWEVER, TALK ABOUT THE NFL TOP PICKS!!! Ok, enough of the yelling:
College YTD Top Picks: 28-20-2 (58.3%) YTD All College Picks 130-100-3 (56.5%)
NFL YTD Top Picks: 10-6 (62.5%) YTD All NFL Picks 32-31 (50.8%)
Total YTD All Picks: 162-131-3 (55.2%)
Now for the Degenerate Menace Baker’s Dozen Plus One!
College
Ohio State (-18) vs Michigan State: You are going to notice a trend. We will be
dancing with who brung us. Ohio State is playing on another level right now and if Michigan State gave up 31 to Indiana at home, Ohio State could score, well, 100.
Kansas State (-1) vs Baylor: Kansas State had a slight problem last week losing by ten to Oklahoma State. Baylor got a big conference win against Iowa State but their only road game thus far was a 21-13 squeaker at Rice. The Wildcats should carry the day at home.
North Carolina (-10.5) at Georgia Tech: Did you know that Georgia Tech holds the record for the most points scored in one game at 222? Did you know that they scored exactly 220 less points than that against Temple last week?
Iowa State (-3.5) vs TCU: In the Big 12, you can never really go wrong with picking the home team (or following Oklahoma). TCU’s only loss was to a resurgent SMU squad while Iowa State’s two losses have been by a combined 3 points to Iowa and Baylor. With the margin this close, let’s go with the home team (and hope they win by 4).
Wisconsin (-37) vs Kent State: Northwestern was a stern test for the Badgers last week. Wisconsin gets a MAC break Saturday against Kent State where they do a pretty good job of covering big numbers against inferior opponents. Taylor and Company should have an easy go of this one.
Temple (-11.5) vs East Carolina: This is probably a stretch considering Temple’s performance at Buffalo a couple of weeks ago. However, East Carolina’s toughest win was against Old Dominion. The Temple defense should give the Pirates fits on Saturday.
Penn State (-28) vs Purdue: Penn State just dismantled Maryland in College Park last week. Purdue has been bitten by the injury bug this year. Penn State could be eclipsing the 50 point barrier again Saturday against the Boilermakers.
Oklahoma (-33) at Kansas: Oklahoma’s average margin of victory is 36 points. Usually, we don’t pay too much mind to these stats in the first few games of the season. For comparative purposes though, three of the four teams that Oklahoma has played (according to the Sagarin Ratings) are better than Kansas. This has the making of a 63-21 rout.
Buffalo (+3.5) vs Ohio: Both of these teams have a little Dr. Jekyl - Mr. Hyde thing going on. The Bobcats cover the spread on the road vs Pitt and Marshall then throw up an absolute stinker against the Ragin’ Cajuns at home. Buffalo handily beats Temple at home then loses by two touchdowns to Miami-Ohio. Something has got to give here. Let’s go with Buffalo getting points at home.
SMU (-13) vs Tulsa: SMU is now a ranked team for the first time since 1984. They are certainly one of the best non-Power 5 teams a third of the way through the season. I am wary that Tulsa has covered the number in three of their first four games. Both teams give up around 26 points a game on defense but SMU scores 19 more a game on offense. Let’s ride with the Mustangs.
NFL
Houston (-5) vs Atlanta: The Falcons are in a tailspin after a humiliating loss at home against Tennessee. Houston is also reeling after a pitiful performance against the Carolina Panthers. The best analysis for the Falcons is that their heads aren’t on right. I am two-for-two betting against Atlanta and looking to keep the streak alive.
New England (-16) at Washington: Washington has regressed after the first half of the first game against the Eagles. New England’s special teams scored as much against the Bills as the Redskins offense did against the Giants. They should just let the Patriot defense play against the Redskin offense and see who scores more.
Jacksonville (+3.5) at Carolina: Ok, it is time to Respect the ‘Stache! Gardner Minshew is 3-0 against the spread when starting for the Jags. The only issue we have to watch this week is whether his knee is okay after the game-winning drive last week against Denver The way Carolina is rallying with Cam Newton injured, it is plausible that Carolina could win at home but the ‘Stache is keeping it under 4.
San Francisco (-3.5) vs Cleveland: The 49ers are coming off a bye week and the Browns just completed a stunning and complete upset of the Ravens in Baltimore. Does Baker Mayfield have another upset in him? Will San Francisco pick up where they left off after beating Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago? This has all of the makings of a great Monday night game. I will lean towards the home team.
I could have had some snide remark about the Miami Dolphins getting points versus the bye week, but I am better than that (Miami +6). The Menace will be on location in Gainesville this week to partake in the top 10 tilt between Auburn and Florida (I took Auburn -3). If you want to compare your picks to the Blitzalytics panel or just take our word for it and use our predictions, go on over to www.blitzalytics.com/betting. Good luck this week!