By Jeremy Dennis
It was a tough week of football at Chateau de Menace. 6-8 is not exactly a money maker. I am currently in my study at the Chateau trying to figure out a new term for when a team that was bet on is owning the other team on defense, yet that other team is still within a score of the spread. Then, in the last two minutes of the game, said crappy team miraculously puts together a 70+ yard drive for the Back Door Cover. What do we call that? Back Door Blowski? Violation at the Back Door? How about this crass one: Back Door Cover, Sin Vasolina. This maybe in reference to the Cincinnati-Baltimore game last Sunday. Baltimore was up 23-10 with the only touchdown on the Cincy side being a kick return. Last drive of the game, HERE COME THE BENGALS! 12 plays - 75 yards. Came ends 23-17 and the Bengals win +11. Ugh.
College YTD Top Picks: 37-30-3 (55.2%) YTD All College Picks 182-145-6 (55.7%)
NFL YTD Top Picks: 15-9 (62.5%) YTD All NFL Picks 47-44-1 (51.6%)
Total YTD All Picks: 229-189-7 (54.8%)
Now for the Degenerate Menace Baker’s Dozen Plus One!
Wisconsin (-31) at Illinois: I bet Wisconsin is getting tired of not being in the National Championship discussion since Ohio State is overpowering the conversation in the Big 10. I think these guys are going to play pissed. Illinois did cover last week, but then again, everybody covers against Michigan (except Iowa).
Florida Atlantic (-5.5) vs Marshall: The Fighting Kiffins are actually turning into a respectable football team. They are the only team to cover against Ohio State and are currently 4-1 against the spread. Marshall, on the other hand, has lost their last three against the number. FAU could put a hurting on the Herd this week.
Clemson (-23.5) at Louisville: Let’s quickly put two facts on the table: Louisville gave up 59 points to Wake Forest. Louisville lost its starting quarterback for the year. This doesn’t exactly give me warm and fuzzy feelings about the Cardinals covering 24 points against the #2 team in the country.
Texas (-21.5) vs Kansas: Texas is 5-0-1 against the spread this season and is looking for revenge after a hard-fought loss against Oklahoma. Kansas is off a bye week and is very random about when and where they are going to cover. I think I would worry more if the spread was higher, but 21.5 is just too much for Kansas to navigate.
Navy (-14.5) vs South Florida: Navy is playing good football now with their only loss on the season being against Memphis at the Liberty Bowl. All football in Tampa seems bad right now between the Bulls and the Buccaneers. Let me put it to you this way: South Florida lost to Georgia Tech. Anchors aweigh!
Penn State (-9) vs Michigan: From a gambling perspective, Michigan has screwed me too many times. I AM NOT PICKING THEM AGAIN! Am I bitter? No…..maybe a little. The Nittany Lions are going to roll them on Saturday.
Kansas State (+3) vs TCU: I have a hard time believe this line when the Horned Frogs signature win has been against Purdue. I am taking the Wildcats to win outright.
USC (-10) vs Arizona: It looks like Clay Helton has got the Trojans back on track. They played Notre Dame tough and the offense is back intact after QB Clovis returned. Also know that USC has covered the spread in both games at home. Kevin Sumlin will be lucky to have a job at the end of the year.
LSU (-18.5) vs Mississippi State: Very simple math here: If Auburn, whose offense is nowhere close to LSU’s hangs a 50-spot on the Bulldogs, Lord knows what LSU will do. Plus, State is having quarterback problems, play-calling problems and Big Orange problems after getting upset by the Vols last week.
SMU (-7.5) vs Temple: The Owls are 3-0 against the spread at home. The Owls are 0-2 against the spread away from home. Let’s see...Oh! This game is being played in Texas and not Pennsylvania! Oh! and SMU is 5-1 against the spread.
Jacksonville (-3.5) at Cincinnati: The Duval Stache will be travelling to the Queen City to take on the abysmal Bengals. Weirdly, though, Cincy is only 3-3 against the spread (that sound you hear is gnashing of teeth, but whatever) this year. I still think the Stache will do it.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta: Yeah, I was surprised when the numbers went a little off-script last week and told me to pick the Falcons against the Cardinals. That is why I did not make it a pick of the week. Of course, if Matt Bryant had made that extra point, there might have been a chance for a cover. The computer and I are making no such mistake with the Rams in Atlanta this week.
Buffalo (-17) vs Miami: Buffalo is 4-1 against the spread this year and coming off of a bye week. Miami achieved their first cover of the year against the lowly Redskins. I think the Bills defense is going to have a field day this week.
San Francisco (-10) vs Washington: The 49ers are a well oiled machine that just dismantled the Los Angeles Rams in Hollywood. The Redskins are a P.O.S. jalopy that could barely beat the Miami Dolphins. Have I mentioned that Daniel Snyder is an inept owner?
I promise you that we are coming to the point where my computer’s numbers are catching up to the lines. Of course, it would help that out of the entire slate of games, I would pick more that win, but we will get to that too. If you want to compare notes, go to www.blitzalytics.com to check out the previews of those games as well as the panel’s picks. Good luck with the week’s action!