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Dynasty: Buy or Sell

Photo Steven Bisig, USA Today Sports

Written by Chaz Turnbow

Hello dynasty league lovers, CC is back with some players who you should be planning to make a move to acquire or to try and sell for a player to better help you compete for a championship this year. If you’ve been following along with my dynasty series here at Blitzalyitics, you’ll know that I treat player values as fluid and their values should depend on your team’s plan. As I outline these players for teams to acquire and sell, be honest with your team's readiness to compete and which camp they fall under.

I’m firstly going to begin with teams that are rebuilding. Most teams that fall under this phase won’t know it until midseason when they’re 3-5 and want to sell older players for a younger approach and more draft capital. Other teams know and recognize that they should be building toward the future right now because they only have a few assets that will be fantasy relevant this year or there are other powerhouse teams in the league. But what incentive does a powerhouse team have to sell a young player that will presumably be on the rise in the coming years? Well, that's why you target teams in the playoff hunt that need that little push to make a move towards the postseason.

Rebuilding Buy at RB: Benny Snell Jr.

The Steelers RB room is packed. James Connor, Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell Jr., and Anthony McFarland Jr. James Connor looks to be the starter that will carry the load for them this season, after that who knows? Connor is entering the last year on his contract and is an unrestricted FA in 2021. Jaylen Samuels is likely last in the pecking order here and can be cut next year with very little consequence. Anthony McFarland brings the speed to compliment, but size concerns limit his upside as a workhorse back. Benny Snell Jr. is a powerful runner who was a workhorse at Kentucky and is the early favorite to lead the Steelers in carries in 2021 and beyond. His stock is low because he doesn't figure to be a major contributor in 2020 and the Steeler just drafted an RB, so a lowball offer might get the job done here. Especially from a contending team.

Rebuilding Buy at WR: DK Metcalf

I know what you’re thinking. “Well duh, he was a first-round pick last year in rookie drafts! Also, why would a team be willing to move on from him after one year?” DK had a great rookie season in Seattle, posting 58/900/7. He did so as a WR2 on a primarily running team, with a limited route tree to boot. With all that in mind, how is his stock lower than it was last year to the point where a rebuilding team could afford him? You have to read your opponent's situation. While DK had a great rookie year, he still looks to be the third-best WR asset from that rookie class, at least right now. Where does DK likely finish in 2020, a low-end WR2? If you can provide a player who will likely finish with higher production this season and maybe even 2021 and some draft capital, for the potential asset that is DK Metcalf that’s worth the push.

Rebuilding Sell at RB: Derrick Henry

If you’re trying to rebuild, there are select studs that you should be willing to move for a younger stud, or for draft capital. Derrick Henry is one of those studs. His stock is very high and should be a high commodity as an RB1 for a competing team. If you don’t think your team is in playoff contention, think about selling Henry to get some value from a team that could use him. Henry is slated to play under the franchise tag in 2020 but after that, we don’t know his future. As a rebuilding team, the future is your concern. Look at the recent wave of RBs that have signed extensions. Would you rather have David Johnson or a couple of 1st round picks? Same question with Todd Gurley. Le’Veon Bell? Sell while he has a guaranteed season of production left and his stock is high.

Rebuilding Sell at WR: Julio Jones

Julio Jones is an ELITE WR in terms of talent, as well as fantasy. Dynasty wise, he’s past 30 and has lived under the ‘Probable’ designation his entire career and the cause of a lot of stress for owners in the past. Am I complaining about owning him? No. Would I be comfortable selling him for a king’s ransom to someone willing to pay for him when I don’t think I’m competing? Absolutely. You could get a lot of capital for Julio Jones and I would not pass that up as that could accelerate my rebuild by itself.

Now I’m going to address the teams that are competing. This is for the teams that should be maximizing their chance to win a championship right now. Maybe you felt like your team missed the playoffs last year because you needed more production out of your flex or your WR2. Here are some players you should seek to buy or this offseason and/or midseason on route to the postseason.

Competing Buy at RB: Aaron Jones

Buy low on an RB who had 19 total TD’s in 2019? Well, the Packers had a “questionable” draft where they drafted AJ Dillon in the 2nd round. He’s sure to vulture some goal-line opportunities from Jones early on. Most importantly, this is Jones’ contract year, and the Packers look to be rebuilding, or at least not maximizing this window to win with Aaron Rodgers, and I don’t envision this team has a high chance of re-signing Jones after the season. So I believe Jones could be on the move in a lot of dynasty leagues this season. He will still be a productive back this season.

Competing Buy at WR: AJ Green

AJ Green hasn’t been healthy for a long time. This alone drives his price super low, and when last healthy he was one of the most dynamic WRs in the NFL. He won’t cost a lot to acquire and if he comes back to form he will benefit from being the WR1 of one of the most hyped QB prospects coming into the NFL in years. He might not be worth much in 3 years, but if I can acquire a WR2 for a 3rd round pick I’m taking that every time.

Competing Sell at RB: Kareem Hunt

Oh, remember Hunt’s rookie year? Dropping 40 points on the Patriots head in his first game? Well if you don’t find someone in your league who does and is willing to wait for him to become the RB1 on a team. Hunt staying with the Browns was an unforeseen circumstance that limits his upside behind Nick Chubb. If you need immediate production, moving Hunt might be your best bet as a player to move so you can snag an RB with a path to more touches.

Competing Sell at WR: Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk flashed as a great asset at times last year, but with DeAndre Hopkins coming to town and Larry Fitzgerald still kicking, he stands to have his targets eaten into. Kirk has a chance to be second on this team in targets on an offense that should be better in year two of the Kliff Kingsbury experience. His value in the long term doesn’t change with the impending retirement of Larry Fitz, but his production and ceiling in 2020 have taken a hit, and I would invest in a more surefire producer in my quest to win a 2020 fantasy championship.

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