As early as we are in the NFL offseason, it’s never too early to think about fantasy, especially if you’re in a dynasty league! Below are my current dynasty football rankings for the upcoming 2019 season. This takes into consideration production and projected production years into the future. After each group I’ll give my take on each and explain my thought process. If you don’t agree with what you read, come find me on twitter @GH_Blitzlaytics!
By: George Haraktsis @GH_Blitzalytics
Quarterback
1. Patrick Mahomes, KC
2. Andrew Luck, IND
3. Baker Mayfield, CLE
4. Deshaun Watson, HOU
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB
6. Carson Wentz, PHI
7. Russell Wilson, SEA
8. Jared Goff, LAR
9. Cam Newton, CAR
10. Matt Ryan, ATL
11. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
12. Sam Darnold, NYJ
13. Kyler Murray, ARI
14. Drew Brees, NO
15. Jameis Winston, TB
16. Josh Allen, BUF
17. Mitch Trubisky, CHI
18. Lamar Jackson, BAL
19. Kirk Cousins, MIN
20. Dak Prescott, QB
21. Derek Carr, OAK
22. Matthew Stafford, DET
23. Tom Brady, NE
24. Philip Rivers, LAC
25. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Details: Patrick Mahomes belongs in the #1 spot for standard fantasy rankings as well as dynasty. He tore up the league on his way to 50 passing touchdowns and a league MVP. At only 23 years old, Mahomes has many years of great fantasy production ahead of him. Baker Mayfield at #3 probably seems high, but consider this. If you extrapolate his 2018 season to 16 games, he’d have about 31 touchdowns and 4,200 yards for the year. Most QBs show us their absolute floor in their first season. So let’s say he only improves slightly over the next few years and only averages 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns over his career and manages to keep his rushing and interceptions the same. That would average around 317 fantasy points each season, which would be good enough for QB rankings 4, 2, and 6 over the 2016-2018 seasons. The rankings also probably seem low for both Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, but you have to consider their ages and loss of key weapons in the offseason. Kyler Murray has made his way into the top 15 due to the Cardinals need for a difference-maker and his ability to use his legs. If I had to pick anyone to potentially outplay their position, it would have to be Jameis Winston. The Bruce Arians situation is very enticing, but it is hard to trust a guy who has been so inconsistent in his career.
Running Back
1. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
2. Saquon Barkley, NYG
3. Christian McCaffrey, CAR
4. Alvin Kamara, NO
5. Melvin Gordon, LAC
6. David Johnson, ARI
7. Joe Mixon, CIN
8. Todd Gurley, LAR
9. James Conner, PIT
10. Nick Chubb, CLE
11. Dalvin Cook, MIN
12. Sony Michel, NE
13. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ
14. Leonard Fournette, JAX
15. Kerryon Johnson, DET
16. Marlon Mack, IND
17. Derrick Henry, TEN
18. Kenyan Drake, MIA
19. Josh Jacobs, OAK
20. Aaron Jones, GB
21. Mark Ingram, BAL
22. Phillip Lindsay, DEN
23. David Montgomery, CHI
24. Miles Sanders, PHI
25. Damien Williams, KC
26. Tarik Cohen, CHI
27. Devonta Freeman, ATL
28. Chris Carson, SEA
29. Jerick McKinnon, SF
30. Royce Freeman, DEN
31. Lamar Miller, HOU
32. Derrius Guice, WAS
33. Tevin Coleman, SF
34. Rashaad Penny, SEA
35. Ito Smith, ATL
36. Jordan Howard, PHI
37. Kareem Hunt, CLE
38. Austin Ekeler, LAC
39. James White, NE
40. Justice Hill, BAL
Details: You could argue Ezekiel Elliot or Saquon Barkley at #1 here and I wouldn’t fault you for either, but I will go will with Zeke personally. While Barkley is most likely the most talented of the two, I foresee Elliot’s situation being more steady and predictable in the coming years. He has an above average quarterback who will be locked down for a while, and an offense centered around him. While Barkley, who will still succeed, is in an offense who has certainly improved the offensive line, but just lost OBJ and has Eli Manning as the QB and Daniel Jones as the QB of the future. I’ll take the certainty in Elliot. David Johnson outside of the top 5 could come back to bite me, but this is the perfect spot for him. This team did not improve their line much, but added new weapons and a freakish quarterback who will certainly help out Johnson. He is the most likely to outplay his value here. Why is Derrick Henry so low after such a great end to the year? Consistency. Let’s see if he can do it again. Nick Chubb owners should definitely be scared of Kareem Hunt, but only for 2018. Hunt will certainly cut into Chubb’s workload for the second half of 2019, but that’s it. After this year it will be Chubb’s team, and a great one at that. That’s why he’s still in my top 10. It is strange to see Le’Veon Bell so low here, but consider this — his coach didn’t want him in the first place, he has a very raw quarterback under center, a terrible offensive line, and is seemingly the only great offensive option on the NYJ. Proceed with caution.
Wide Receiver
1. Odell Beckham Jr., CLE
2. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
3. Davante Adams, GB
4. Michael Thomas, NO
5. Julio Jones, ATL
6. Mike Evans, TB
7. Juju Smith-Schuster, PIT
8. Keenan Allen, LAC
9. T.Y. Hilton, IND
10. Amari Cooper, DAL
11. Stefon Diggs, MIN
12. A.J. Green, CIN
13. Antonio Brown, OAK
14. Adam Thielen, MIN
15. Kenny Golladay, DET
16. Brandin Cooks, LAR
17. Corey Davis, TEN
18. Robert Woods, LAR
19. Jarvis Landry, CLE
20. Chris Godwin, TB
21. Calvin Ridley, ATL
22. D.J. Moore, CAR
23. N’Keal Harry, NE
24. Robby Anderson, NYJ
25. Mike Williams, LAC
26. Allen Robinson, CHI
27. Cooper Kupp, LAR
28. Tyler Lockett, SEA
29. Courtland Sutton, DEN
30. Will Fuller, HOU
31. Tyler Boyd, CIN
32. Alshon Jeffery, PHI
33. Sterling Shepard, NYG
34. Sammy Watkins, KC
35. Christian Kirk, ARI
36. Julian Edelman, NE
37. Dante Pettis, SF
38. Parris Campbell, IND
39. Mecole Hardman, KC
40. James Washington, PIT
Details: Michael Thomas sneaking into the top 5 in dynasty might be a surprise to some with Drew Brees “coming to the end” of their career. I think Brees has plenty of time left ahead of him, and their connection is undeniable. Draft Thomas and enjoy many more years of production. Courtland Sutton could absolutely outplay his value here, as he has a very good chance to develop a productive relationship with Joe Flacco this year, and could turn into one of Drew Lock’s favorite target in the years to come with his size and jump ball ability. Most wanted to see Deandre Hopkins at #1 and Odell Beckham Jr. at 2 but I flipped the script. OBJ has a great offense, a young quarterback who will look for him, a very solid offensive line, and weapons to take the pressure off him. Hopkins has all of that, except the offensive line. That may not be a big deal for a WR, but consider if that leads to an injured Deshaun Watson? Not good news for Nuk. The only player I hate where I have in my rankings is Kenny Golladay. With Golden Tate gone and his breakout last year I could see Golladay absolutely killing it as Stafford’s number 1, but I could not find a higher spot for him.
Tight End
1. Travis Kelce, KC
2. Zach Ertz, TE
3. George Kittle, SF
4. Evan Engram, NYG
5. O.J. Howard, TB
6. David Njoku, CLE
7. Hunter Henry, LAC
8. Noah Fant, DEN
9. T.J. Hockenson, DET
10. Irv Smith, MIN
11. Eric Ebron, IND
12. Mike Gesicki, MIA
13. Chris Herndon, NYJ
14. Vance McDonald, PIT
15. Dallas Goedert, PHI
16. Jared Cook, NO
17. Trey Burton, CHI
18. Jordan Reed, WAS
19. Austin Hooper, ATL
20. Hayden Hurst, BAL
Details: The top 3 here of Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle, are probably a similar top 3 in standard leagues as well. These 3 guys are the centerpieces of their respective passing offenses, have young and talented quarterbacks throwing to them, and will all be under 30 by the start of the 2019 season. These guys are the elite and will be for years to come. This seems crazy high for Noah Fant, but he is now paired with a QB who loves his TEs and will be paired with a young quarterback once Flacco is gone. We know how much young QBs love their TEs, Fant has years of production ahead of him. Eric Ebron falls out of the top 10 here. Strange, but probably the right move. He had an amazing season, but Jack Doyle is now back and Ebron is in the last year of his deal. If he moves on from Luck, his production will take a huge hit. Vance McDonald has a huge chance of breaking out this season and could easily outplay his value. The Steelers lost their best offensive weapon, and someone will need to replace a portion of that in the coming years. One person I would stay away from is Trey Burton, he seems to have no role in that offense and cannot develop a relationship with Trubisky. Be weary.
Defense/Special Teams
1. Chicago Bears
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Denver Broncos
8. Cleveland Browns
9. New Orleans Saints
10. Buffalo Bills
Details: This is one of the toughest position groups to pick bar none. As long as Khalil Mack is under contract, The Chicago Bears should be number one. The Jaguars take a tumble here, but they’ve lost a few guys and their future is somewhat muddled. The Cleveland Browns, after their many additions and subtractions, could be low on my list here, but I need to see the product at work before moving them any higher. If the Buffalo Bills reach their potential, they could easily sneak into the top 5.
Kicker
1. Harrison Butker, KC
2. Justin Tucker, BAL
3. Greg Zuerlein, LAR
4. Graham Gano, CAR
5. Wil Lutz, NO
6. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
7. Mason Crosby, GB
8. Dan Bailey, MIN
9. Jake Elliott, PHI
10. Matt Prater, DET
Details: In all honesty, this is probably a crapshoot. Kickers are cycled out year after year, week after week. Follow the presumed predictability of their offenses and use of the kicker. Which is why Butker, Tucker, and Zuerlein are in the top 3. It’s a kicker anyways, who cares!