By: Alexander Amir
With free agency and the draft far behind us, it’s time for team owners to seriously begin research for this year’s fantasy season! These rankings will change a lot throughout the summer, but for now this is my approximation of the order in which these players should be drafted if a league were to begin today. I’ll give a brief explanation of my thought process for each position group — if you’re not satisfied with it, at me on twitter @ajamir21!
Quarterback
1. Aaron Rodgers, GB
2. Andrew Luck, IND
3. Patrick Mahomes, KC
4. Deshaun Watson, HOU
5. Matt Ryan, ATL
6. Russell Wilson, SEA
7. Baker Mayfield, CLE
8. Drew Brees, NO
9. Cam Newton, CAR
10. Carson Wentz, PHI
11. Dak Prescott, DAL
12. Tom Brady, NE
13. Kyler Murray, ARI
14. Philip Rivers, LAC
15. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
16. Jared Goff, LAR
17. Jameis Winston, TB
18. Kirk Cousins, MIN
19. Matthew Stafford, DET
20. Derek Carr, OAK
21. Lamar Jackson, BAL
22. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
23. Josh Allen, BUF
24. Mitch Trubisky, CHI
25. Sam Darnold, NYJ
Details: Patrick Mahomes anywhere below #1 might seem like an egregious take, but no QB has been a back to back fantasy points leader since Daunte Culpepper from 2002-2004. Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill this offseason, which is an unimaginable loss of talent given his scheme fit and speed, plus he has the hardest strength of schedule amongst all QBs according to FantasyPros… Baker Mayfield showed flashes of excellent games last year, with seven 17+ point games. With Odell Beckham Jr. joining the fold, Mayfield is poised to take a huge step forward… I expect Ben Roethlisberger to take a big step back without both Antonio Brown and Le’veon Bell… Kyler Murray will be fantasy relevant due to at least his legs; Lamar Jackson had 15+ fantasy points in all of his starts last season, and Murray is faster than him and has a better arm… Jameis Winston could jump in my rankings with offensive guru Bruce Arians now coaching the team, but for now his track record is too inconsistent to put higher.
Running Back
1. Saquon Barkley, NYG
2. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
3. Christian McCaffrey, CAR
4. Alvin Kamara, NO
5. Melvin Gordon, LAC
6. David Johnson, ARI
7. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ
8. James Connor, PIT
9. Todd Gurley, LAR
10. Dalvin Cook, MIN
11. Joe Mixon, CIN
12. Aaron Jones, GB
13. Marlon Mack, IND
14. Devonta Freeman, ATL
15. Kerryon Johnson, DET
16. Sony Michel, NE
17. Derrick Henry, TEN
18. Leonard Fournette, JAX
19. Josh Jacobs, OAK
20. Nick Chubb, CLE
21. Mark Ingram, BAL
22. Phillip Lindsay, DEN
23. James White, NE
24. Tarik Cohen, CHI
25. Damien Williams, KC
26. Rashaad Penny, SEA
27. Royce Freeman, DEN
28. Jordan Howard, PHI
29. Tevin Coleman, SF
30. Chris Carson, SEA
31. Miles Sanders, PHI
32. Derrius Guice, WAS
33. Lamar Miller, HOU
34. Kenyan Drake, MIA
35. David Montgomery, CHI
36. Latavius Murray, NO
37. Jerick McKinnon, SF
38. Austin Ekeler, LAC
39. LeSean McCoy, BUF
40. Ronald Jones II, TB
Details: Saquon Barkley should be the 1st back off the board in all formats. The Giants offensive line is only better and their QB situation can’t get any worse… Todd Gurley is far lower than I have seen in a long time, but the arthritis in his knee scares me. The Rams will likely manage his workload and we saw what kind of an effect the injury had on him last year… Josh Jacobs will get a boatload of touches on all downs in the Oakland offense, and he has fresh legs to manage it… Nick Chubb will be a beast for the first 8 weeks of the season, but when Kareem Hunt returns it’s probably going to be a straight up timeshare — I can’t trust that in the fantasy playoffs… The Redskins backfield is by far the most crowded in the league, which is why their highest rated back is Derrius Guice at #32. I would stay away from Washington entirely at least until it’s sorted out… I bet Rashaad Penny leads Seahawks running backs in fantasy points. Backup Mike Davis is no longer on the team, Chris Carson currently has a knee injury and has already missed 14 games in two years, and Seattle might go even more run heavy with Doug Baldwin gone.
Wide Receiver
1. Davante Adams, GB
2. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
3. Odell Beckham Jr., CLE
4. Mike Evans, TB
5. Julio Jones, ATL
6. Michael Thomas, NO
7. Juju Smith-Schuster, PIT
8. Antonio Brown, OAK
9. T.Y. Hilton, IND
10. Keenan Allen, LAC
11. A.J. Green, CIN
12. Adam Thielen, MIN
13. Amari Cooper, DAL
14. Stefon Diggs, MIN
15. Julian Edelman, NE
16. Kenny Golladay, DET
17. Alshon Jeffery, PHI
18. Robert Woods, LAR 19. Jarvis Landry, CLE
20. Brandin Cooks, LAR
21. Tyler Lockett, SEA
22. Cooper Kupp, LAR
23. Chris Godwin, TB
24. Sammy Watkins, KC
25. Mecole Hardman, KC
26. Allen Robinson, CHI
27. Calvin Ridley, ATL
28. N’Keal Harry, NE
29. D.J. Moore, CAR
30. Marvin Jones, DET
31. Tyler Boyd, CIN
32. Dante Pettis, SF
33. Courtland Sutton, DEN
34. Golden Tate, NYG
35. Christian Kirk, ARI
36. Mike Williams, LAC
37. Will Fuller, HOU
38. Corey Davis, TEN
39. Robby Anderson, NYJ
40. James Washington, PIT
Details: Mike Evans is poised for a giant fantasy season with new coach Bruce Arians, who will undoubtedly utilize him in all sorts of ways… Juju Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown are such hard projections for me, but I think they both land in the top ten. The former will be hurt by Brown’s absence, while the latter will see a decrease in QB play…. Julian Edelman will once again be a PPR maven and will see even more looks with Rob Gronkowski retired… similarly, I have extremely high hopes for rookie N’Keal Harry, who will take over Gronk’s red zone targets… Mecole Hardman is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Andy Reid will use him exactly the same way he did Tyreek Hill, and Hardman has the athleticism to make it happen… Jarvis Landry will be competing with Odell for more targets, but that will take the attention off him. He will be facing exclusively single coverage, and a quick hit offense is Baker Mayfield’s bread and butter… Mike Williams will be a nice later round find, particularly with Tyrell Williams’ departure.
Tight End
1. Travis Kelce, KC
2. George Kittle, SF
3. Zach Ertz, TE
4. O.J. Howard, TB
5. Hunter Henry, LAC
6. David Njoku, CLE
7. Evan Engram, NYG
8. Chris Herndon, NYJ
9. Delanie Walker, TEN
10. Eric Ebron, IND
11. Benjamin Watson, NE
12. Jared Cook, NO
13. Jack Doyle, IND
14. T.J. Hockenson, DET
15. Austin Hooper, ATL
16. Kyle Rudolph, MIN
17. Trey Burton, CHI
18. Jordan Reed, WAS
19. Dallas Goedert, PHI
20. Mark Andrews, BAL
Details: Travis Kelce is now very clearly Kansas City’s #1 option with Tyreek Hill’s release, while Sammy Watkins and Hardman will still keep the defense honest… like I discussed with Mike Evans, Bruce Arians will likely maximize O.J. Howard’s capabilities… Chris Herndon is my sleeper pick at tight end, as he has no competition for targets and will be a safety blanket for a still developing, young Sam Darnold… Eric Ebron’s stock drops with the return of Jack Doyle, but I think that offense can still support him as a top 10 tight end… rookie tight ends rarely do well, but Detroit’s Matt Patricia is trying to remake the Patriots. That means big things for T.J. Hockenson… Dallas Goedert showed some productivity last year and is easily the most valuable handcuff at the position.
Defense/Special Teams
1. Chicago Bears
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Los Angeles Chargers
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. New England Patriots
8. New York Jets 9. Buffalo Bills
10. Houston Texans
11. Tennessee Titans
12. Indianapolis Colts
13. Denver Broncos
14. Kansas City Chiefs
15. Washington Redskins
Details: Defense is too hard to predict at this stage, so I essentially ranked these defensive units off of talent and schedule. AFC East teams have 10 games each against the AFC and NFC East, two divisions featuring some of the least explosive offenses in the league (save for the Patriots). That’s why they have 3 teams in the top 10 with the Patriots, Jets, and Bills… Kansas City had a sneaky good defense last year and added Frank Clark, Tyrann Mathieu, Emmanuel Ogbah, Juan Thornhill, and Darron Lee to offset the losses of Dee Ford, Justin Houston, Steven Nelson, and Eric Berry.
Kicker
1. Justin Tucker, BAL
2. Harrison Butker, KC
3. Greg Zuerlein, LAR
4. Wil Lutz, NO
5. Mason Crosby, GB
6. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
7. Aldrick Rosas, NYG 8. Robbie Gould, SF
9. Jake Elliott, PHI
10. Jason Myers, SEA
11. Bret Maher, DAL
12. Adam Vinatieri, IND
13. Greg Joseph, CLE
14. Matt Prater, DET
15. Chris Boswell, PIT
Details: This is in some ways the easiest to predict, because kickers who do well usually do so for a sustained period of time, and kickers on good offensive usually stay fantasy relevant. The only surprise here is Greg Joseph at #13 — I’m a believer in Cleveland’s offense.