Written by Jordan Jensen
Sept 12, 2019
Twitter: @Jcubedblitz
Week On of the National Football league has come and gone, and while I took some real lumps, I still managed to make some money. Let’s run it again in Week Two, where some interesting bets can be made this week.
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Line: Panthers -7
Over/Under: 49
An important rule of mine that didn’t apply to Week One when teams had more time to prepare is don’t bet on Thursday night games; there are too many unpredictable factors to consider when both teams are less prepared than they normally are. Maybe that’ll change in a few years when there is enough historical data. If you want to bet, seven points is a pretty high line and you should take the Bucs. I’d be more interested in the under.
Prediction: Buccaneers beats
Over/under: Under
Confidence level: 3
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Line: Titans -3
Over/under: 44.5
This is another bet to avoid. Tennessee’s defense rose to the challenge in Week One against a hyped Cleveland team, but I can’t shake the feeling that was a fluke, so my confidence is low. That said, the Colts don’t have as good of an offense as Cleveland (I still believe) with Brissett under center, so I can see a repeat. If pressed, I would go with the Titans to cover at home as both the Titans and Colts enjoy running the ball, keeping the score low. However, 44.6 is a little bit low for an NFL game, so I like the under.
Prediction: Titans cover
Over/under: Under
Confidence: 4
LAC at Detroit
Line: Chargers -3
Over/Under: 47.5
The Chargers scraped out a win against Indianapolis on the back of Austin Ekeler’s impressive performance and the Lions could only manage a tie against a Cardinals team with low expectations. I’m certainly excited to see the second game of Kyler Murray’s career, but he’s still too young to beat a veteran quarterback in the NFC North at home. Detroit’s defense comes up big in Week Two and Kerryon Johnson grinds out a solid game this week.
Prediction: Detroit beats
Over/Under: Under
Confidence: 6
Buffalo at NYG
Line: Bills -1.5
Over/under: 43.5
Josh Allen struggled mightily in the first half of Buffalo’s game against the Jets but managed to right the ship in the long run. Meanwhile, the New York Giants are a giant (no pun intended) dumpster fire. New York also has multiple key offensive personnel out for a multitude of reasons and Saquon Barkley, as freakishly enthralling as he is to watch, won’t be able to carry an entire team from the running back position save for a few amazing games. The Bills should cover this line.
Prediction: Bills cover
Over/Under: Over
Confidence: 7
Arizona at Baltimore
Line: Ravens -13
Over/under: 46
This is a game I’m going to watch from start to finish. I am thoroughly excited to see both Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson play again as soon as possible. As I understand it, the Dolphins were so bad last week that Baltimore didn’t need to reveal their new look offense, so they technically still have an ace up their sleeve. I’m onboard the Kyler Murray fan wagon after Arizona’s exciting comeback last night, but I need to see him play better for four quarters before I start throwing the Cardinals straight bets on a line like this. Baltimore’s defense is considerably better than the Cardinals, and while that will propel them to victory, this line is a little bit too large for me to sit nonchalantly; when betting, take the Cardinals and/or the over.
Prediction: Cardinals beat
Over/under: Over
Confidence: 4
New England at Miami
Line: Patriots -19
Over/under: 47.5
The Miami Dolphins are not good at football and are tanking their season just to obtain the #1 pick, but the pride of NFL players and history New England has in Miami is tough to ignore on a line this large. This line is actually right on the money once garbage time is taken into consideration, so while I won’t be betting this game, it wouldn’t be crazy to bet on “Tom Terrific” as Miami Dolphins player’s agents attempt to jump ship.
Side bet: If you’re in any eliminator challenges, then you’re likely choosing New England to beat the Dolphins this week. What could ease the pain of losing a league like that so early in the season is spending a few bucks on the low, low chance the Dolphins actually pull this one out. They are 5-1 in the last 6 contests after all...
Prediction: Patriots cover
Over/under: Under
Confidence: 2
Dallas at Washington
Line: Cowboys -5.5
Over/under: 46.5
This line was -4.5 for Dallas earlier in the week, and that was clearly a good bet. Dallas is a Super Bowl contender now that Zeke is back in the mix, but their lines may not have fluctuated back to where they should be after last week. Dallas now has a solid defense and the Redskins are without the luxury; they also have the historical data on their side. I take Dallas on this line but I also take the under as running the ball doesn’t typically garner many huge lines.
Prediction: Dallas covers
Over/under: Under
Confidence: 8
Jacksonville at Houston
Line: Houston -9
Over/under: 43.5
I’m a big fan of Jacksonville’s defense, and nine points is high enough that I’ll lean towards selecting them to beat this line against a team that just can’t seem to protect their quarterback. That said, Jacksonville lost a major piece of their puzzle when Foles went down, but Houston’s defensive was equally unimpressive in Week One, and it’s obvious they’re already missing Clowney’s production. Clearly Houston wins this game but won’t have the offensive production that showed against New Orleans. Jacksonville also likes to run clock early and often so this one should stay closer than it seems.
Prediction: Jacksonville beats
Over/under: Under
Confidence: 6
Seattle at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers -4
Over/under: 46.5
This will be one of the more fun games to watch in Week Two. While Seattle wasn’t exactly impressive against Cincinnati, they showed a great amount of promise both offensively and defensively. Seattle is also starting Ezekiel Ansah for the first time, giving them even more quarterback pressure. Normally Ben Roethlisberger looks like a massive oak tree in a lot of games, but Clowney and Ansah are large, large men that are coming to chop the tree down. Seattle beats the line here and clicks offensively, so take the over. A parlay, which is a sucker bet by the way, could be a fun stretch gamble on both lines in this game.
Prediction: Seahawks beat
Over/under: Over
Confidence: 8
San Francisco at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals -2
Over/under: 45
The Bengals were a little bit out of sorts last week when Mixon went down with an ankle injury. I’m not convinced he should be rushed back this week, but it sounds like he’ll play. San Francisco looks a bit shaky as well, and I can’t decide which team I like worse. I won’t be betting but if you do, take the home team; at least Tyler Boyd provides some spark.
Prediction: Bengals cover
Over/under: Under
Confidence: 5
Minnesota at Green Bay
Line: Packers -3
Over/under: 44
I made a mistake betting against Aaron Rodgers when he faces an NFC North opponent and this time it’s in Lambeau. To be clear, I have a great amount of respect for the Vikings this season. Their roster is littered with talent, Dalvin Cook ran like a maniac in Week One, and they have an elite defense. However, all that goes out the window when you’re playing a game of football chess against Aaron Rodgers. I take Green Bay and the under.
Prediction: Packers cover
Over/under: Under
Confidence: 7
Kansas City at Oakland
Line: Chiefs -7.5
Over/under: 53.5
Over a touchdown is a large line against anyone but the Chiefs this year. They just lost their best receiver and still appear to be a very high scoring offense. While Oakland did win and Josh Jacobs, Tyrell Williams, and Darren Waller certainly impressed, the Denver team that Oakland pounced on was woefully behind schedule in terms of development. Oakland loses this one big and it’s one of those games for Patrick Mahomes as he develops rapport with new speedster Mecole Hardman. That said, Oakland tacks on points and maybe even keeps it close early, so take the over.
Prediction: Chiefs cover
Over/under: Over
Confidence: 9
New Orleans at LAR
Line: Rams -2.5
Over/under: 52
This isn’t one that should be bet on, as both of these teams are capable offensively and defensively, which is why the line is roughly around the three points given automatically to the home team. If you’re going to bet, take the under just because both teams defenses are underrated. The Rams will also be running the ball too frequently to build up many points over the course of the game. If you have a gun to my head, I go with the Saints to beat the spread since Drew Brees is a legend.
Prediction: Saints beat
Over/under: Under
Confidence: 3
Chicago at Denver
Line: Bears -2.5
Over/under: 40.5
Chicago is not as bad of an offense as they looked in Week One against the Packers, who provided a new look defense for their old rival. Denver also looked absolutely terrible against Oakland. This is one of my more confident lines of the week along with the Chiefs. Don’t panic on Chicago; they’ll right the ship shortly.
Prediction: Chicago covers
Over/under: Over
Confidence: 9
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Line: Eagles -2
Over/under: 51
One of the most surprising games last week was Atlanta vs Minnesota. Many had Minnesota picked, but I don’t think anybody thought it would be as big of a blowout as it turned into. The Vikings are one of the better teams in the league, but Atlanta should at least have a great offense with Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones. Atlanta will begin to return to form, but I don’t think a full 360 is in the cards for them. Meanwhile, after a brief half to shake off the rust, Carson Wentz showed us he’s still a stud. I understand the Falcons are at home, but this line is one of the more comfortable of the week as terrible as Atlanta looked in Week One.
Prediction: Eagles cover
Over/under: Over
Confidence: 7
Monday: Cleveland at NYJ
Line: Browns -3
Over/under: 46
I’m not even close to jumping off the Cleveland Browns bandwagon. Personnel is huge in the NFL, and the Browns have all of the pieces they need to be good. The Jets have one of my favorite runners of all time in Le'Veon Bell, but he alone won’t be enough to stop a Browns team with a giant chip on their shoulder after a disappointing Week One loss.
Prediction: Cleveland covers
Over/under: Over
Confidence: 6
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