(Image credit Jerome Miron/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
I can't believe that it is Week 10 and we are at the halfway point of the NFL regular season. Before we take a look at my picks for week 10 let's take a look at my week 9 pick performance. And which teams are on a bye week.
Week 9: Record 5-9
Overall record: 59-73-3
Teams on a Bye Week
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans
New York Giants
Now that we have gone through how I went in Week 9 and showed what teams are on a bye week, I will now give my weekly NFL picks with spreads for week 10. The Spreads from these games were all found on Draftkings.
Thursday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (Spread +7.5)
Miami just had their second victory against the Houston Texans and they looked like they checked out in the second half. Tua has been a massive disappointment as he is dealing with a finger injury and who knows who will be the starting quarterback. Jacoby Brissett was the quarterback last week and he was horrible against a horrendous Texans secondary. But to be honest when you are getting an insane amount of pressure because your o-line can’t block then you understand why he looks as bad as he did. The Dolphins o-line may be worse than the Steelers o-line and that is saying something. This week they face the Baltimore Ravens defense which may be dealing with injuries but has a ton of talent to have an impact on this offense. Miami's defense will have a difficult time stopping Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. I think this spread is fair as the Ravens do play games close but I think Baltimore will cover this spread. By the way, if you have not taken a look at my week 10 survivor pick article the Baltimore Ravens would have been my survivor pick.
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
Sunday Football 1:00 PM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (Spread +9.5)
When I first saw this spread I was shocked that it was not a double-digit spread. Yes, Washington is coming off a bye but so is the Buccaneers and they will be healthier entering this game. Washington has been one of the disappointing teams in the NFL Season as I expected Washington to be a lot better than what they currently are. I don’t hate Taylor Heinicke but I don’t see him being the starter long-term starter for this team. The defense has been a huge disappointment and this secondary has been awful this season including cornerback William Jackson III. What a terrible signing he has been for the Washington Football team and I wonder if they decided to cut ties with him next season or if they Osweiler Effect him. I just think that Tampa Bay is a lot better than Washington is on offense and defense. I will take the Buccaneers in this game even though Washington will be the home team.
My Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5)
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (Spread +8)
The Detroit Lions have easily been one of the worst teams in the NFL today but I got to be honest I really like them this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers are such frauds and are such an overrated football team as the games they have won they played close. It doesn't help that in those wins they played down to competition against the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks (With Geno Smith as the QB), Cleveland Browns (Without Baker Mayfield and Running backs), and Chicago Bears where they should have lost that game but they can thank the refs for that win. The Steelers are such an untrustworthy team to bet on due to their constant playing down to competition. Then again Mike Tomlin is still the head coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers for some reason. I really like the Detroit Lions because they had extra time to prepare for this game and the Steelers love to play games close due to their constant playing down to competition on a weekly basis. Also, this spread is way too high for me not to pick against the Steelers. I will take the Detroit Lions in this game and the Lions will absolutely be my super lock for this week.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+8)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Spread +12.5)
The Buffalo Bills were upset last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars and are not in a good move entering this game. They should beat up on the New York Jets this week no question. Especially as we have no clue who will be the QB for the New York Jets. If Mike White is healthy he should be the starter but I am not sure what his health status is. If not the Jets will have to go with either Josh Johnson or Joe Flacco because I doubt Zach Wilson will be ready to go for this week. The Jets defense has not been good and they have surrendered the past three weeks a total of 130 points. That is an average of around 43 points per game which is not good. I think the Bills offense will torch the Jets defense and I will take the Bills in this game but if they don’t win this game then there is a real problem involving this Bills team.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills (-12.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (Spread -8.5)
When I took a look at the Playoff Picture the Atlanta Falcons would currently make the playoffs in a wildcard spot if the season ended today. That is crazy to think about but remember there are plenty of games left to go but if Atlanta keeps winning they can make the playoffs. They have been a bit impressive this season. I think the MVP of this offense is Cordarrelle Patterson as this has been his best season. Matt Ryan may be declining but he still has plenty in the tank with Kyle Pitts at Tight End. Their defense may be horrendous but AJ Terell is turning into a strong long-term piece for this Falcons defense. This is their true test this week as they faced the Dallas Cowboys. On Paper the Dallas Cowboys are the better team but I wish this team was properly coached and I would have more confidence in Dallas. I think the Cowboys will win this game but I will take the points with the Falcons but I am not going to be betting on this game.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+8.5)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (Spread -1.5)
This to me is the game of the week. Both teams will be battling with a potential tiebreaker scenario for a wildcard spot in the playoffs this season. Cleveland looks like a better team once they get rid of the locker room distraction of Odell Beckham Jr. Even analytically Baker Mayfield is a lot better when Odell Beckham is not playing for the Cleveland Browns. The Browns will be at a disadvantage as running backs Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton both tested positive for Covid-19 and will not play in this game> it will be interesting to see how the Browns do on offense and defense now that they are healthier and now they got to go play in New England in a test facing against the patriots. Speaking of the Patriots on a side note: Why in the world was Mac Jones not suspended or even fined for his blatant dirty play with Brian Burns last week. He basically pulled a Vontaze Burfict and was caught twisting the ankles of opposing players. What is ridiculous is that Mac Jones said the reason he did this was that he was trying to make a tackle when he fumbled. Yeah and I’m Batman, You tell me which is more believable. Besides that dirty play Mac Jones has been very solid as the QB for the Patriots and has made some solid throws through his rookie career. If the Patriots had stronger receivers then they would potentially have a top offense. This defense has also been solid and Matt Judon is a fantastic signing. I debated this one but I am leaning toward the Patriots, but I am not betting on this game.
My Pick: New England Patriots (-1.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Spread -10)
I am not going to go long with this game. Even though the Jaguars won last week against the Bills it honestly made picking this game easier for me. I will absolutely take the Colts in this game. I think the Colts are better in every way against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Colts got more time to prepare for one of the worst teams in the AFC. It also hurts the Jaguars that Trevor Lawrence is dealing with an ankle injury and they have to play this game in Indianapolis. I am definitely taking the Colts in this game.
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts (-10)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (Spread -2.5)
This would have been the game of the week if the Saints were healthy and Derrick Henry was not injured for the Titans. But that is unfortunately not the case. I still don’t know what to think about the New Orleans Saints. This offense is mainly successful due to how good this o-line is and Alvin Kamara is one of the best running backs in the league. Imagine if the Saints offense had a consistent quarterback on this roster. I won't be shocked if this team decides to invest in selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. The Saints defense has been solid as well and will provide a challenge to the Titans. Now the titans were fantastic last week against the Rams but it was clear Matthew Stafford was dealing with a back injury and should have been inactive last week. The Titans defense is still a mess and has not been as strong as they have been. The offense did a solid job but is not the same as it has been since Derrick Henry got hurt. Jeremey McNichols is more of a pass-catching back and the team decided to bring in Adrian Peterson as their starting back until Henry is healthy. AP is not the same player he was with the Viking. This game is a tough one for me to pick. I am leaning towards the Titans but I will not be touching this game at all.
My Pick: Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Sunday Football 4:05 PM
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (Spread -2.5)
Say what you want about Minnesota if there is one thing that they proved to me last week against the Baltimore Ravens. They play tough. They played a really tough and close game for the past few weeks and I have been impressed with them. Even though Mike Zimmer has had the game pass him by and made questionable decisions. There is no doubt that they love Zimmer as head coach and want to succeed for him. This defense is a complete mess and it is no surprise that offenses are throwing the ball more against them. I expect Justin Herbert to do that as he is a great quarterback in the NFL. This Chargers o-line is fantastic and should do a great job protecting Herbert and I expect the running game to do a solid job.
While writing this news came out against the domestic abuse allegations that are placed on Dalvin Cook putting a big question mark on his availability for this game. It would be a loss for the Vikings offense if he would not play this week. It is clear that the Vikings will be distracted by the Dalvin Cook situation so I will take the Los Angeles Chargers in this game.
My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (Spread -6)
This is the first injury game of the week. Especially as we have no clue who will be starting for both teams. Scratch that as with the Carolina Panthers Sam Darnold won’t play after all as his shoulder injury is looking long-term. He is expected to miss around 4-6 weeks and will be placed on IR. Honestly, I would not be shocked if this is Sam Darnold’s last game as the starter this season. If PJ Walker plays the way he did in the XFL. Darnold has disappointed me because I thought he was going to be the next big QB in the league. Carolina at least has Christian McCaffery back at running back so we will see how much better he will perform now that he should be completely healthy for this week. Carolina’s defense is also injured including DE/EDGE Rusher Brian Burns (Thank You Mac Jones) which is a big loss if he is not ready to go this week. Arizona’s defense excluding JJ Watt is healthy but the question is the offensive injuries. No word yet on if Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins will be playing this week but I think they will be back this week. It is clear that the Cardinals are healthier than Carolina is and I will take Arizona in this game.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals (-6)
Sunday Football 4:25 PM
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (Spread -3)
I would have labeled this game as a Tank Game for the tournament for the first overall pick but I decided not to as the Denver Broncos upset the Dallas Cowboys. I don’t know what to think of the Denver Broncos at this point. In one game they look completely terrible and outcoached and with other games they look like the best team in the division. Teddy Bridgewater looks a lot better during his game against the Dallas Cowboys. While he was playing injured it has become clear to me that Vic Fangio and the Broncos staff have given up on Drew Lock. I think Lock’s time in Denver is not looking bright at all. It is weird saying this but this defense looks a lot better ever since Denver traded Von Miller. But they have to face a team in Philadelphia where they are a wildcard as well. I have been a Jalen Hurts supporter and he has been sold this season. I really don’t know if for the long term he is the guy but he shows a ton of flashes. The defense is not that good but is mediocre at best. But I am not a fan of either coach in this game as Vic Fangio is on the hot seat, but Nick Sirianni as the Eagles coach is just making me question his coaching moves every game. I honestly debated which team to go with here and I will not touch this game. But I will take the points with the Philadelphia Eagles.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (Spread -3.5)
Imagine if this game had both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers at QB in this game. I have no clue yet if Wilson will play in this game but him being activated from IR is a good sign. Who knows if Aaron Rodgers will play either due to contracting Covid-19. Rodgers has been a distraction since contracting this disease and I have to be honest. I really like Seattle in this game. I think Jordan Love will be the starter for Green Bay but he was awful in his first start against a horrible Chiefs defense. Seattle’s defense is awful as well but they're on the same tier as the Chiefs defense is. I would wait to bet on this game though until later in the week when we know for sure who will or will not play.
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Spread +2.5)
Oh boy, where to begin with this matchup. I will start with the Las Vegas Raiders. This team can’t catch a break this season as this team has had a total of three falls from grace this season. One from Head Coach Jon Gruden for his disgraceful emails. The Second is from WR Henry Ruggs after he killed someone while driving under the influence. Now CB Damon Arnette who was recently released after videos came out where he was threatening to kill someone and holding multiple guns. No surprise that days later he was released from the Raiders, it had to be done. You can't threaten someone and pose with guns while doing it. I was never a fan of the Raiders selecting Damon Arnette and I thought that it was a complete reach at the time. Now with Arnette gone, make that two first-round picks that fell from grace due to their off-the-field issues. The Raiders 2020 NFL Draft Class not even a year and a half in is easily the worst in that draft no question. I feel bad for this team so much as they have a ton of talent to make an impact this season but with the increasing off-the-field problems with this team, they have lacked focus. They have a chance at making an impact this week as they are facing a Broken Chiefs team. I want to ask the Chiefs: What the heck happened to Patrick Mahomes? He has not looked his usual self this season and It's making me question what is going on behind the scenes. I wonder how valuable Clyde Edwards-Helaire is to this offense because since he has been hurt this offense has not functioned well. Their defense is a complete mess and has been a disappointment this season. But at least they are not as distracted as the Raiders currently on. I am not betting on this game at all but I think the Chiefs should win this game.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Monday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Spread +3.5)
This is the second injury game of the week but unlike the first one, this is in primetime. I will start with the Rams as it is clear that Matthew Stafford is injured. He was limping all over the place against the Tennessee Titans. It is clear that his back injury is a lot worse than thought. The Rams need to be very careful with back injuries because look at how that ruined Tony Romo’s career. The 49ers are an extremely frustrating football team that is also dealing with injuries at QB. Jimmy G still has a nagging calf injury and Trey lance who is not ready is dealing with an injury too. Last week was a disgraceful performance by the 49ers as the Cardinals did not have their starting QB or WR in this game and Chase Edmonds left the game with an injury as well. I don't trust the 49ers at all and Mike Shannahan is on the hot seat now and I will take the Rams in this game. But I will pass on betting on this game.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams 49ers (-3.5)