Image Credit: (Tim Heitman/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Twitter: @nicholasmullick
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 10. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6) Week 7 (9-5) Week 8 (7-8) Week 9 (7-5-1)
Total: (67-64-5)
Not bad, I got the same amount of winning bets from last week,but over 500 for this week. I hope I can keep it up.
Superlock Record (4-5) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8: Tennessee Titans, Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
I was not stressed at all as the Seahawks are way better than the Cardinals currently are.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 9 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 10. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3) It looks like Carolina is going to be sticking with PJ Walker as the starter. Which I kind of understand as Darnold is coming off of IR and may still be rusty and Baker Mayfield has not impressed either. I do think once Darnold is ready, that he will get another shot to start when PJ either struggles or gets hurt. However, PJ was just horrendous against a beaten up Bengals defense. The Falcons as well have injury issues and I doubt AJ Terrell plays in this game which is an issue. What is also an issue is how terrible the Falcons pass rush has performed. I will say the Falcons offense will be better if Patterson plays, which is very likely. I like what Atlanta is doing, but what is going on with TE Kyle Pitts? They are not utilizing him properly as I have been watching film on him and he has been getting open, but Mariota is just not throwing to him. They better figure out their issues with Kyle Pitts because if not, I can see the Falcons trading during either free agency or during next year's trade deadline. As for this game, I am going to pass on betting it as I don’t have confidence on the other side. I will take the better team and I feel it is Atlanta.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Sunday Morning Football (9:30 AM)
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
This game is going to be the first regular season game in the history of the National Football League (NFL) to be played in Germany. I am very excited to see how it turns out, and I get to have breakfast while watching football which always puts a smile on my face.
Quick Question, How are the Seahawks underdogs in this game? I get that there is more travel involved with the Seahawks going to Germany then it will be for Tampa Bay, However the Seahawks are way better than the Buccaneers are. I still think the Buccaneers have a ton of problems and they unconvincingly beat a bad LA Rams team which is a big concern. I still think the Buccaneers are poorly coached and I just can’t trust the Buccaneers. Give me the Seahawks all day this week and I am going to bet this game. I would have made this my superlock, but I have one game that I am more intrigued with.
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Sunday Football (1:00 pm) Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-3) Yuck, this game is just a very terrible matchup. The Titans are a much better team, but if they were not in the AFC South I guarantee you they would be in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. The offense is just abysmal and Todd Dowling the offensive coordinator for the Titans has got to go. He is on the list of coordinators on the hot seat once the season is over. Even if they make the playoffs I think the Titans should get rid of Dowling as the play calling is just abysmal. Titans defense is mediocre, but is better overall than the offense is. Speaking of abysmal we got the Denver Broncos and oh boy what is there really to say that is not said. The Broncos are a terrible team, but with the bye week they have extra time to prepare for this game and I kind of like them this week. If Denver loses this game then Nathanial Hackett needs to be fired. Then again I have said that since that disgraceful week 5 game against the Indianapolis Colts. I am taking the Broncos here because this is their last chance to show me that they belong and I still believe that they have talent on this team. I am not going to bet on the game as there are better options to bet.
My Pick: Denver Broncos (+3)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
I have to ask as the Jaguars are my number two team, Is Trevor Lawrence terrible or is it that the pieces surrounding him are under performing? Lawrence has just not been performing that great this year and it is getting concerning as he was supposed to be a generational talent. Christian Kirk has done well, but the Jags receiver core needs to step up. I will say Travis Etienne has performed very well for the Jags this season. I do hope Lawrence performs well as I was a big fan of him during his Clemson days. The Chiefs are just too talented and with this game being in Arrowhead, this is an easier pick to take the Chiefs in Survivor. They would would have been my survivor pick for this week if I was still alive for this week. I think they win this game and cover the spread
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Ohh, an interesting one finally. Well for draft purposes, Welcome to the 4th Tank Game in the Tournament for the First Overall Pick. Two teams with one goal in mind to try and suck for Will Anderson. Wait nevermind the Saints 1st Round Pick is Philadelphia Eagles property due to that strange trade up in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Saints on Monday Night were terrible against the Baltimore Ravens. I don’t understand why they are favorites in this matchup at all. Especially as the Steelers are the home team and they may be getting TJ Watt back on defense. He is going to heavily boost this defense so much and it will be scary seeing how they will be performing with him back. Plus Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week as well which made me more interested in taking them here. Give me the Steelers here.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-4) Not going to go on long here. This seems like a great spot for the Browns. Especially as the Browns are getting healthier and are coming off a bye week. They have plenty of time to prepare for this game and should perform well here. However the Dolphins offense is just too much for the Browns defense to handle. Give me the Miami Dolphins in this spot. Yes, I know Miami’s defense is bad too, but they should perform well against a decent Browns offense. Spread wise I won’t bet it, but I am more inclined to bet the over total points which last I checked was 48.5. That is a better bet to make over the spread in this game.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins (-4)
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-6) Many ask why this spread is low? Well Bills QB Josh Allen is dealing with an elbow injury and there is talk that he may not play in this game. So the Bills may start Case Keenum in a revenge game. I would not be shocked if Keenum starts this week and against the Cleveland Browns next week to ensure that Allen is 100% healthy. If Allen is not healthy or gets severely hurt then the Bills would be in deep trouble with their goal of winning a Super Bowl. Many are just easily betting Minnesota here, but I am 50/50 on it. This game is a test for the Vikings as they have not really faced great competition as excluding the Miami Dolphins who have they really beaten that is a great team. Don’t say Arizona as they are a terrible team. I just can’t take Minnesota here, give me the Buffalo Bills here. I might bet it once Allen’s injury status is more clear.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills (-6)
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5)
I am bit concerned regarding the Giants losing S Xavier McKinney as he was calling defensive plays on the field to the team and now he is out probably a month or 2 due to a hand injury. The only other thing I am iffy on is that the Giants run defense is not that great and Dameon Pierce should run all over this defense. However besides that I just don’t see how the Texans can cover their spread as they are just horrendous. Plus the Giants are coming off a bye and should be well prepared for this game. I would not be shocked if the Giants won by double digit points, and I will take the Giants.
My Pick: New York Giants (-6.5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
I don’t care what type of hot streak the Bears are, like the late Dennis Green “They are who we thought they were…”. They are still a tanking team and it is my due diligence to Welcome you guys to the 5th Tank Game in the Tournament for the first Overall Pick. I will say the way Justin Fields is performing is a freaking miracle with how poorly he is surrounded with talent. Yes I know they added Chase Claypool, but still the Bears are not surrounded well. Imagine when they fully give him tools to succeed. However this defense for the Bears is terrible and with how well the Lions have performed on offense, I can see them expose the Bears. The lions defense is terrible too, but I think Detroit is the better team. I am leaning towards taking the Lions here, but I will not be betting on this game. I may go with the over 48.5 point total
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Sunday Football (4:05 pm) Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5)
Ok You know the drill here with two teams who are terrible facing off against each other. Welcome to the 6th Tank Game in the Tournament for the First Overall Pick. Two teams who have not been performing well this season and with the Colts latest coaching change fundamentally enter the Tank Tournament. However I got to be honest, I really like the Colts here. The Colts may be a terrible team, but the Raiders are just abysmal. Especially as this team is poorly coached and my goodness Josh McDaniels has learned nothing from his mistakes from Denver and they blew a 17-0 lead against a terrible Jaguars team. Do you really expect me to take the Raiders who are a touchdown favorite? No. I see them winning this by 3 points, give me the Colts here and I debated this game to use as my superlock.
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)
Sunday Football (4:25 pm) Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (+5) This is my favorite game of the week to bet as Dallas is my superlock. No question. How are the Packers not double digit underdogs here? I don’t understand it as the Packers are a dysfunctional mess. They could barely put up points against the Detroit Lions who have one of if not the worst defense in the NFL right now. What makes me think they can put up points against the Cowboys who are a Top 5 defense in the NFL? If it were me running the Packers I would purge big pieces and start a rebuild. First off, Matt Lafluer needs to go, as he is such an overrated coach and this team is so poorly prepared almost every week. What happened to utilizing Aaron Jones? I get he is hurt, but even when healthy they just barely use him. Also I kept wondering if Aaron Rodgers is hurt or not this season, now I am starting to think that he just doesn’t want to play with the Packers anymore. He looks so unmotivated and I get the Packers receivers are not great, but some of his throws are just horrendous. I have given up on the Packers this season and If it was me I would start Jordan Love this season, just to see what the team has in him. This is a mismatch and I am absolutely betting the Cowboys this week, to me it is free money.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-5) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
Uhhh, I want to label this a Tank Game, because I think both teams are terrible, but I just can’t. The Rams are performing terribly this season and yeah they just look defeated. The Cardinals are also just aggravatingly bad as well. I really don’t know where to go with this game, especially as both Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford may both not play in this game. Stafford is dealing with a Concussion and Murray is dealing with a Hamstring Injury. I decided to lean on the better coached team and I feel that is the Rams with McVay by a country mile. Kingsbury is another coach who should be gone as well, but I wonder if that extension he signed is going to keep him as the coach for another year. Yeah I am going to take the Rams here, but stay far away from this game.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-3)
Sunday Night Football Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Can I label this game as the Injury Bowl? Both teams are dealing with a ton of injuries. At least the 49ers are getting healthier now. It is clear that the 49ers are more properly coached and the Chargers were trying to gift the Falcons that win last week. Joe Lombardi and Brandon Staley need to be fired at the end of this season, even if they are in the playoffs which I really doubt. There are big problems with the Chargers and I really don’t think this game is going to be close at all. I will take the touchdown here and lay it with the 49ers. I can really see the Chargers losing this game by double digit points.
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Monday Night Football Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11) I am going to make this one quick as this is an easier pick here. I think the Eagles are clearly the better team and should win the game, however I just think this is way too many points. Washington is a terrible team, but they are not as horrendous as other teams in the NFL. Would I be shocked if Washington gets destroyed. No, but like I said I still could care less about the Commanders on the field as off it is just more interesting. I think the Eagles win, but Spread wise I will take the points.
My Pick: Washington Commanders (+11)