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NFL Spread Picks: Week 11

(Image credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today Sports)

Written by: Nicholas Mullick

I can't believe that it is Week 11 of the NFL regular season. Time has gone fast. Before we take a look at my picks for week 10 let's take a look at my week 10 pick performance. And which teams are on a bye week.

Week 10: Record 5-9

Overall record: 64-82-3

Teams on a Bye Week

Denver Broncos Los Angeles Rams

Now that we have gone through how I went in Week 10 and showed what teams are on a bye week, I will now give my weekly NFL picks with spreads for week 11. The Spreads from these games were all found on Draftkings.

Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (Spread +7)

A Super Bowl 51 Rematch as the Patriots will face the Atlanta Falcons. Say what you want about Bill Belichick but man he has done a fantastic job with his team this season. Mac Jones has been the best QB as of now taken in this draft class. The running back core is a great duo including Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. The receiver core is a bit shaky but so far Kendrick Bourne is proving that he was worth the salary that was given to him during the offseason (Even though it is an overpayment). Their defense is good as well and Matthew Judon has been a slam dunk signing made by the team. The Falcons are not an awful team but boy they make me shake my head with performances like last week against Dallas. To make it worse RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson is injured and I have no idea if he will play this week. Most of the time the better team wins on Thursday night if they are healthy. New England is a healthy team and I just think New England is better in every way against the Atlanta Falcons who are still rebuilding. So I will go with the Patriots in this game as I feel that they are the better team. But this spread is a bit fishy after the Falcons got destroyed against the Cowboys so I will not bet this game.

My Pick: New England Patriots (-7)

Sunday Football 1:00 PM

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Spread +3.5)

Guess what time it is everyone. It's the 6th Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. The Miami Dolphins upset many survivor pools last week when they defeated the Baltimore Ravens. Tua looked fantastic once he went into the game when Jacoby Brissett got injured. This offense was clicking and looked functional when Tua came into the game. The o-line for Miami is a complete mess. For Miami’s defense, they got a player in S Jevon Holland. He made plays all over the field last week and the Dolphins Defense looked better lately. I doubt Zach Wilson will be starting this game with an injury but I won't rule him out completely. There is still no word yet on who the QB will be either Joe Flacco or Mike White. If it was me who made the decision I would start Mike White despite his awful performance against the Bills. The Jets have weapons through this offense. The Jets defense is a trainwreck and has given up a ton of points in the last few weeks. I debated this game a lot and I think the spread is fair. I will take the better-coached team here and take the Miami Dolphins. But for now, I will stay away until we hear more about who the starting QB will be.

UPDATE: Apparently the Jets will be starting Joe Flacco in this game. My question is Why? Mike White yes had a bad game but he faced one of the best defenses in the NFL Today. I think it is a week too early to give up on Mike White and Joe Flacco is not the answer for the long term. Mike White is young and can develop into a solid QB and I want to see him play again against a weak defense to see how he does. If he struggled against Miami and Wilson is still hurt then I would put in Joe Flacco. But this move just does not make sense. I hope Flacco is the best now that he no longer has to deal with Adam Gase though.

I think with Flacco being the QB this has just made this choice a much easier pick to make going with the Miami Dolphins. I will be betting on this game now.

My Pick: Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Spread +2.5)

This is an important game for both teams here. Especially when it comes to tiebreakers on whoever wins the NFC North. There is no chance Detroit wins this division and I doubt Chicago does either due to poor coaching. The Packers are on paper the better team but are dealing with injuries. One big injury that won't play is Aaron Jones who suffered an MCL injury against Seattle and probably won't play for a few weeks. The Packers secondary is beaten up as well but never count Green Bay out when Aaron Rodgers is at QB. I wonder when David Bakhtiari will return as he is an extremely talented o-lineman and has been fantastic whenever he is on the field. They will have to go to Minnesota who loves to play close games so the spread is fair. But man the Vikings need to make the playoffs to save coach's jobs. I don't think Kirk Cousins is terrible but I just don't have a lot of confidence in him. The Vikings offense is solid and who knows what is going on with Dalvin Cook but he should play this week. This Vikings defense is horrible and I think Green Bay should come into Minnesota and beat them but this game will be close. This game is a no-bet for me but I will take the Packers.

My Pick: Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (Spread +6)

I don’t even know what to think anymore about the Ravens anymore. They have games where they look like the best team in the league by beating the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Then the Ravens would have games where they look awful like they did last week against the Miami Dolphins and almost lose to the Detroit Lions (They're lucky to have Justin Tucker as a kicker). But this week Baltimore should be better as they face a team that is less talented, has injuries, and terrible coaching. Matt Nagy is not a good coach and Justin Fields looks solid but when Nagy was out with Covid Fields looked like a much better and different player. Who knows how healthy this Bears defense will be and I will take on the Baltimore Ravens in this game even though Chicago is the home team.

My Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-6)

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (Spread -7)

This to me is the game of the 1 PM games. Do I have to ask how this spread is so High? This is way too many points for me to not take the Indianapolis Colts here. The Colts are a lot healthier than they were weeks ago and have been excellent the past few weeks. Yes, they were two weak opponents but Buffalo has been struggling excluding a terrible Jets team. The running game has been key to the Colts offense as Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have been fantastic in their roles. Wentz may be up and down but his o-line being completely healthy will help give Wentz time in the pocket. The Colts defense has continued to be excellent throughout the season. The Bills are a great team and woke up from last week but this is a true test where they face a more competitive and properly coached team in the Indianapolis Colts. This is a big test for both teams but this spread is way too high and this game will absolutely be close and I will take the Indianapolis Colts in this game. This is a must-bet at the number it currently is right now.

My Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+7)

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (Spread -3.5)

The Ron Rivera Bowl as I like to label this game as Rivera used to coach the Carolina Panthers. No word yet on who the Carolina Panthers will be starting this week as Cam Newton Impressed with his touchdowns but PJ Walker was the full-time starter and had a strong performance against Arizona. Newton Looked solid but if it was me I would have Carolina start PJ Walker at QB. I hate to say it but I think Sam Darnold's season as the starter may be done if he does not heal from his injuries quickly. To be honest it does not truly matter who is at QB but if RB Christian McCaffrey is healthy enough to play this week then beat the Panthers. This offense lives and dies whenever this man is on the field. I want to throw out that Washington lost their best player in defense Chase Young for the season due to a Torn ACL which is a massive loss for their struggling defense. I will be taking the Carolina Panthers in this game.

My Pick: Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (Spread -10)

The Lions were this close getting their first win against a Steelers team that loves to play down to competition. Yes, Ben was out due to covid but the team played down to the worst team in football. Anyways we will get to that later. If the Lions had a competent quarterback then they would have absolutely won their first game this season. Jared Goff is not that and my goodness I knew he was overrated in Los Angeles Rams but my goodness. Goff is horrendous and I keep saying it but I'd rather have David Blough at QB than Goff. He is that bad. The only pros are the running game and maybe the o-line was solid. This week they have to face a Cleveland Browns team that has been inconsistent this season. Baker Mayfield is dealing with an injury but should be healthy for this week. He needs a strong season if he wants to get extended by the Cleveland Browns. No word yet on if Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt will be back to play but I am not sure. The Browns are the better team and are the home team as well. The Team is too injured for me to take on those points. I will take the Detroit Lions in this game spread wise but Cleveland should win this game. If you have not read my latest Survivor Pick article then the Cleveland Browns would have been my survivor pick for this week.

My Pick: Detroit Lions (+10)

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Spread +6.5)

I debated making this game a tank bowl during Sunday night but the 49ers destroyed the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night. The 49ers looked solid in that game but looking into it Stafford is clearly hurt and the Rams bye week is much needed for Stafford to heal his injuries up. Jimmy Garoppollo was solid and had an opportunity to impress the Jaguars. Deebo Samuel's return has boosted the 49ers. The defense is solid too but their secondary is not that good and it resulted in Dre Kirkpatrick losing his job as he got cut. Trevor Lawrence was injured but he looked fine against the Indianapolis Colts but the Jaguars offense has an opportunity to impress. Here is a big problem for the San Francisco 49ers, they are a west coast team and will have to play a game on the east coast which is very difficult to do. I think this is too many points and I think the Jaguars have a chance to win this game. So I will be taking the Jacksonville Jaguars.

My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Spread -10)

I am not going to go long with this game at all. I think it is a mismatch and Tennessee should win and dominate the Houston Texans in this game. The Titans have been fantastic and have not lost a beat even without RB Derrick Henry. The Texans defense is not good at all and I think AJ Brown and Julio Jones will destroy the corners in the receiving game. To add to it the Titans are the home team. I will go with the Titans and will be betting on them this week.

My Pick: Tennessee Titans (-10)

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (Spread -1.5)

Last week the Eagles were impressive with the Denver Broncos last week. The Offense and Defense looked good but then when you look into it we realize that the Broncos are tanking and are undergoing a rebuild on their defense and still have no long-term answer to the Quarterback position. This week they will have to face a New Orleans Saints team that almost won against the Tennessee Titans without Alvin Kamara. Barring a setback from Kamara’s recovery time Alvin should be ready to go for this week. I am not sleeping on the Philadelphia Eagles as they have been underrated this season. I am still a pro. Jalen hurts Guy and he did fine last week even when Dallas Goedert got hurt. I think that Hurts will be fine against the Saints defense. This was a game I debated a lot choosing and it is going to be a no bet for me but I will take the Saints as I feel they are better coached and are a stronger team.

My Pick: New Orleans Saints (+1.5)

Sunday Football 4:05 PM

Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders (Spread +1.5)

The Las Vegas Raiders can’t catch a break this season as they already had three falls from grace this year (Jon Gruden, CB Damon Arnette, and WR Henry Ruggs III). Former Raiders OT Trent Brown who now plays for the New England Patriots in week 8 of the 2020 season had to be hospitalized after the Raiders accidentally caused air to enter his bloodstream. Medical mistakes happen but in a recent interview, he admitted that he was hospitalized after the incident and claims it took him eight months before he felt right again. It almost got to the point where Trent Brown almost retired as a result. When I heard that two things came into my mind. First, thank goodness that did not happen as I was always a fan of Trent Brown the player and the person. The second is No wonder why the Las Vegas Raiders traded Trent Brown away for pennies on the dollar. Would you as a person want to be a part of a team that almost ended your career and your life? Especially in the middle of a pandemic. Absolutely not. So add that to the list of distractions that the Raiders have to deal with this time.

So getting back to the game I won’t go too much into this game. I have no idea who to go with as the Raiders could once again be distracted with the Trent Brown news. The Raiders offense has never been the same since Henry Ruggs’s Fall From Grace. They Brought in DeSean Jackson to replace him in this role but that is like bringing in Michael Vick to be the replacement for Lamar Jackson. DeSean Jackson is not the same player as he was. The Bengals are a poorly coached football team but I expect Joe Mixon to have a strong game. The Raiders run defense is not the best. Like I said, not betting on the game but I will go with the Bengals I guess.

My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)

Sunday Football 4:25 PM

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Spread +2.5)

I guess the Colt McCoy excitement is over as they were upset by a returning Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. But one thing was clear to me as since JJ Watt suffered his injury the Cardinals have been a complete disaster on defense. The Cardinals are also dealing with injuries. I doubt DeAndre Hopkins plays vs Seattle and Who knows if Kyler Murray will be back at QB. If he is I he will not be at 100%. Speaking of injuries QB Colt McCoy is also dealing with a pec injury and might not play and their third-string quarterback is. Hold on, I need to look this up Chris Streveler. For those that did not know Chris Streveler played in the CFL with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and then signed with Arizona in 2020. Seattle is also a mess as well plus Russell Wilson looked nowhere near 100 percent last week at all. He made some awful throws in this game. Chris Carson returned to practice and who knows if he will be ready to go for this week. If Seattle can't beat the Cardinals this game they are done in my opinion. They won't make the playoffs with how tough this division is. The Seahawks need this one badly but if they lose at least they have a top 1st round pick to help build this team-up. Oh wait, they don’t have that. The New York Jets do because of the Jamal Adams trade. I think Seattle, for now, is the play until we hear an update regarding the injuries for Arizona but I'd wait for the injury reports to fully bet on the game.

My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (Spread -2.5)

This is the game of the week for me. I love both QB’s on this team as both are the heart and soul of their teams. This is a game many have considered as a potential Super Bowl matchup at the end of the year. I can see why fans think that however, The Cowboys like I said are extremely talented on offense and defense but this team is poorly coached and I can't trust them. The Chiefs are not the strongest on defense and the offense has taken a few steps but they have a good coach in Andy Reid. Both had strong performances last week but this is the true test between the two teams. I will not be betting the game but I will go with the home team in the Kansas City Chiefs.

My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (Spread -5)

This is an easy game for me to take in this game. I love the Los Angeles Chargers in this game. I think the Chargers have a better offense, defense, and special teams than the Steelers do. I won't say coach even though I still don't get why Tomlin is still the Steelers Head Coach. But Brandon Staley is still a rookie coach and he has been up and down. Mason Rudolph should be better in this game but the Steelers defense was abysmal last week and is dealing with injuries. Justin Herbert is going to throw all over this injured Steelers defense. I'd be shocked if the Steelers won this game. I will take the Chargers with pride in this game and the Chargers are my super lock for this week.

My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

Monday Night Football

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Spread -10.5)

Both teams are on a bye this week and it was much needed for Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have had a ton of nagging injuries that they are dealing with. What has been a big weakness is Tampa Bay’s secondary that just lost Richard Sherman due to a calf injury which is a big loss. Who’s gain is it the Giants offense as Daniel Jones could throw over a weak Buccaneers defense. I think Tom will be prepared to beat the New York Giants as they are a team he has struggled with in his career cough* cough* Super Bowl 42 and 46 cough* cough*. Honestly, The Giants defense had been better than usual and should do a good job making this close. I think Tampa Bay is better but I think it's too many points for a Giants team coming off a bye so I will take the Giants spread-wise and the Buccaneers to win this game.

My Pick: New York Giants (+10.5)

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