Image Credit: (Eric Hartline/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Twitter: @nicholasmullick
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 11. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record
Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6) Week 7 (9-5) Week 8 (7-8) Week 9 (7-5-1) Week 10 (7-7)
Total: (74-71-5)
Another .500 betting record for me last week, not going to complain.
Superlock Record (4-6) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8: Tennessee Titans, Week 9: Seattle Seahawks, Week 10 Dallas Cowboys
What a joke. I guess Mike McCarthy decided to revert back to his horrendous coaching tactics against the Packers. I can’t believe they lost that game. I really regret not using the Colts as my superlock.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 10 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 11. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (+3)
This is a very intriguing Thursday Night game as I still don’t know what to think of the Titans. The Packers I still believe are a horrendous team and they were lucky that Dallas gave that game away. The Packers did make the right decision cutting WR Amari Rodgers who was a total flop of a 3rd round pick. Christan Watson finally had his breakout game with three touchdowns and hopefully Aaron Rodgers now has trust to throw it to him. The Packers still have a ton of issues and I still believe Matt LaFluer is an overrated coach. The Titans offense has been decent and their defense with all the injuries has been mediocre. I prefer the Titans roster and coaching staff over the Packers right now, so I will take Tennessee here. I will pass on betting this game as I don’t have a strong lean in this game.
My Pick: Tennessee Titans (-3)
Update: While the article was uploading this game was completed and the Titans won this game 27-17 and thus I am 1-0 with my spread picks. All I got to say for the Packers, is that the season is pretty much over and if I was them, I would start Jordan Love for the rest of the season.
Sunday Football (1:00 pm)
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-12)
Look I think it is clear that the Ravens are the better team and if they lose this game then the Ravens have massive issues. Plus it may be time to begin the discussion of a post era of John Harbaugh. That is not happening as I see the Ravens winning the game, however it is just too many points for me not to take Carolina. Especially excluding the game against New Orleans and the New York Jets, they have blown a lot of long leads this season. Could that change this week, maybe but I still have a bitter taste in my mouth with Baltimore being double digit spread favorites, especially with how beaten up they are on offense. I will take the points with Carolina, but I am staying away from this game.
My Pick: Carolina Panthers (+12)
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)
Let's be real the Eagles should have won last week, but the Refs heavily helped the Commanders win that game. I was so frustrated watching that game and knowing how Goedert got hurt with that missed facemask infuriates me. Now they face a Colts team that everybody is hyping about. Let's be real, the Raiders are a mess and are coached by Josh McDaniels who should have been fired immediately when that game ended. The Colts are still garbage and The Eagles are a real team. This spread is way off and I would not even bet the Colts if they got 10 points here. Give me the Eagles and if they lose this game then the Eagles have real problems as the Colts are still a bad team. Especially now that they signed both Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph to help ring chase and boost the Eagles defense. I contemplated making the Eagles my superlock, but I decided not to as there is one game I liked more.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
As of now it looks like this game will still be going on. If you are not aware Buffalo is going to be getting a lot of snow the next few days. That alone and the uncertainty of how the Bills are going to be practicing the next few games, I really like the Cleveland Browns in this game. This is way too many points and I get the Browns are mediocre, but this game is clearly going to be close. The Browns are one of the best running teams in the league and I think Hunt and Chubb are going to have big games this week. Plus even if there was no snow, I still think Josh Allen is hurt as some of the throws he made in that Vikings game was way off. I am taking the Browns here and I may even bet on this game depending on the firm number regarding how much it will snow.
UPDATE: As this article goes out it looks like Buffalo will get around 2-6 feet of snow. So this game may get pushed. I also am currently in Buffalo, NY as well and will be getting a bunch of the snow that hits here.
My Pick: Cleveland Browns (+8.5)
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3)
This is a game I am very interested in as everyone knows how I was high on the Lions this season and still like Dan Campbell as a head coach. The Giants are clearly going to make it to the playoffs and Brian Daboll is another example as to why coaching matters in the NFL. I want to ask, Am I the only one that thinks this spread is very strange? I like the Lions, but with how well the Giants are performing, I don’t think I can bet the Lions currently with how much of a trainwreck their defense is. If it was a touchdown, maybe I would consider it but three points is just too small. I am taking the Giants in this game and I may even bet this game as well.
My Pick New York Giants (-3)
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
I think this is a very underrated matchup this week, probably as I have no clue what to think of both teams. For Chicago, Imagine if the Bears had surrounded Fields with an o-lineman and receivers as he has been performing well this season. He has carried Chicago and if he is this good now ,my goodness I can’t wait to see what he does with talent around him. Herbert being injured is a big loss for the Chicago offense. Besides Fields playing well, I think the Bears are a bad football team. Looking at Atlanta, they are clearly in a slump. I still think they are a well coached team and could still win this division if they play well, however I want to see Desmond Ridder play at QB now. Especially as Mariota is starting to get on my nerves with some of the awful decision making he has had with his throws. The one criticism I also have with Mariota is that he has been under and over throwing Kyle Pitts all season. One other thing I don’t understand is that Smith has a background being a TE coach. Why is he not able to turn Kyle Pitts into a great weapon for Mariota like he did in Tennessee when Delanie Walker was the TE? He is being so mismanaged. Besides those two things, I like where Atlanta is going with their rebuild. The spread is fair to me, but I am leaning towards the better team and that is clearly the Falcons. This game is a no bet for me.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Here we have a very important game for both teams. Well, not really when looking at it deeper. Welcome to the 7th Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Whoever wins benefits nobody in this game, who does benefit is either the Lions and Eagles. Remember the Lions have the Rams 1st Round Pick due to the Stafford trade and the Eagles have the Saints pick due to the trade up in the 2022 NFL Draft. So the Rams and Saints are battling for pride.
When looking at this game, I have no idea where to go as both teams are done this season. The Rams are horrendous and dealing with injuries. With Cooper Kupp now out for probably the season this offense got worse. No update on if Stafford starts yet, but I am guessing he won’t. I might be in the minority, but I would rather have John Wolford as my QB than Andy Dalton. Dalton has been done for years as a starting QB, but he is cooked as well. I doubt Jameis plays as back injuries are no joke, but even if he does, the Saints are just awful. As injured as the Rams are, there defense is solid. I am leaning with the Rams as 4.5 is just too many points for a horrendous Saints team to be favorites, but this game is clearly a no bet. On a side note too, Dennis Allen has got to go as the head coach for the Saints. I don’t blame the Saints for promoting him as they were in a bad spot, but he is a terrible head coach. Stay away from this game betting wise, but I will take the Rams.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3)
Ok I get New England won against them earlier this season, but they should not be favorites in this game at all. The Jets had a bye week and have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. Same can be said about the Patriots, but the difference is the Jets have arguably the best defense in the NFL. Although I am still a bit concerned with Zach Wilson and the coaching staff, they gained a bit more confidence after they defeated the Bills weeks ago. Also I would rather have Zach Wilson at QB than Mac Jones who has heavily regressed this season. As a fan of the Jets, I want this team to win as I am sick and tired of the Patriots always winning. I am going to take the Jets here as on paper they are better. It does go against the coin that has been 100% right with every pick the Jets have had.
My Pick: New York Jets (+3)
Washington Commanders at Houston Texans (+3.5)
I like this game a lot, betting wise. Give me the Washington Commanders here. I still think the Commanders are mediocre, but they are a thousand times better than the Texans. The Commanders are getting DE/EDGE Chase Young back and this defense is going to get a lot better with him back. The Texans besides RB Dameon Pierce, this team is absolutely terrible and are the clear favorites getting the 1st pick in the draft. I am taking the Commanders this week. The Commanders would have been my survivor pick if I was still alive in that pool and you know what, Washington is also my superlock for this week. It just sucks that I care more what happens off the field than on it with the Commanders. Sell The Team Snyder!
My Pick: Washington Commanders (+3.5) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
Sunday Football (4:05 pm)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3)
The Raiders get another game at 4:05 and they're facing the Denver Broncos. You know the drill, roll those tanks as it is the 8th Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Two teams battling for a high draft pick, and in the journey of which head coach will be fired first. I have no clue who is a worse head coach Josh McDaniels of the Raiders or Nathanial Hackett of the Broncos. Both teams are in a bad place right now and while the Broncos defense is good, their offense is horrendous. It is such an indictment on both QB Russell Wilson and Nathanial Hackett that if they can only score 18 points, they would have been 8-1 right now. But hey at least they have their 1st Round Pick to help build the offense, Oh Wait they can’t as it is property of the Seattle Seahawks due to the Russell Wilson trade. At least Denver has Miami’s 1st Round Pick for this year, I guess that is a positive. As for this game I mean my goodness I really don’t know where to go here. I am going to take the Broncos as they are more healthier, but I ain't touching this game money wise.
My Team: Denver Broncos (-3)
Sunday Football (4:25 pm)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)
Did you know this game opened up with the Cowboys being 2.5 point favorites. So this game dropped a point, which is stunning as the Vikings beat the Bills and the Packers upsetted the Cowboys last week. It is clear that this game has potential to be the game of the week. Dallas’s defense got exposed last week and made Christan Watson look like a star last week. I can see the Vikings again exposing this team, however it looks like Justin Jefferson is dealing with a Toe/Foot issue which is a bit of a concern. Even if Jefferson does not play, I have more confidence in the Vikings then I do with the Cowboys. I prefer O’Connell then McCarthey as the head coach. I will probably no bet on the game, but I will take the Vikings.
My Pick Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)
This is a trap game. If it was not for the Storm that is coming for Buffalo I probably would have made the Trap Survivor Pick. The Bengals are coming off a bye and looked great against Carolina, but the Steelers are on paper better than the Panthers. Plus, the Steelers defense is getting back Minkah Fitzpatrick in this game and him and Watt just make this defense so much better. No word on if Ja’Marr Chase will be back in this game and that is another big positive for taking Pittsburgh. One thing for sure is that the Bengals defensive line is beaten up right now and I really can see Najee Harris having a big game this week. Could the Bengals win, possibly, but it will be close. I am leaning towards the Steelers this week and I can potentially see them win this game.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5)
This is an easy one here, give me the Chiefs as I think they smoke a beaten up Chargers team. The Chargers have an insane amount of injuries and have a head coach who is likely out of a job at the end of the season. I hate to be honest here, but I really think Justin Herbert is going to waste his career with the Chargers. He is so talented and he deserves to go to a real team/franchise that will actually surround him with competent coaching and talent that never gets injured. Herbert is so talented and I would not disagree calling him a Top 5 QB in the NFL. It is just a shame that the Chargers just can’t catch a break. This game is a must bet and just take the Chiefs and don’t look back.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+8) *In Mexico City, Mexico*
This game will be played in Mexico City and I like how the NFL has been expanding internationally and having games all around the world. As of now, there is no word who is starting at quarterback for the Cardinals in this game. Hamstring injuries are tricky to determine when players are 100% healthy as they linger and I am not so sure Kyler Murray will play in this game. Colt McCoy is banged up with his knee injury and who knows if he will be ready to go. So Arizona may have to start Trace McSorley at QB. Remember, the guy many labeled as the next Taysom Hill in when he was Baltimore. Honestly even though the 49ers should take care of business here, I kind of like Arizona here. The Cardinals won’t win the game and many don’t have confidence in them due to Kingsbury still being here as the head coach. However if McCoy is the QB which I think he will be, I think he can keep this game to a one score game. So I will take the Cardinals here.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+8)