Image Credit: (Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 10. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6) Week 7 (9-5) Week 8 (7-8) Week 9 (7-5-1) Week 10 (7-7) Week 11 (5-9)
Not a great week of spread picks for me and I need to rebound this week to get more wins than losses.
Superlock Record (5-6) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8: Tennessee Titans, Week 9: Seattle Seahawks, Week 10 Dallas Cowboys, Week 11: Washington Commanders
Hey I won the superlock last week. Not shocked as the Texans are horrendous, but the Commanders are still a team that I care more for off the field than on it. I will continue to stress this, but Sell the Team Snyder.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 11 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 12. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (+9)
I got to say both teams impressed me last week. For Detroit, yes I know the Giants suffered a ton of injuries, but Detroit really came to play against them. Kudos to Jamaal Williams last week as he ran for three touchdowns in that game. The Bills impressed because with all of the stuff thrown after them with the gigantic snowstorm that hit the Buffalo region. Trust me I am currently in Buffalo, NY and that storm was bad. Luckily I was in Northern Buffalo, so where I was did not get hit as bad as it was in Southern Buffalo. However we still got a ton of snow. This game almost got canceled as there was a chance the Bills would not be able to even fly out of the city to play the game in Detroit. For them to play the way they did just impresses me and goes to show how great of a head coach Sean McDermott is.
I really went back and forth with this game, as it is clear Buffalo is on paper the best team in the NFL. I can really see the Bills win by double digit points as the Lions defense is awful. However Detroit’s offense is getting healthier and I think Chark will be better with another week back playing. I will play it safe and take the points with the Lions, but the Bills should clearly win this game.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+9)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9)
This is the first game in many years where I am very intrigued watching the Cowboys play on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys destroyed the Minnesota Vikings last week and when watching just made me confused as to why they lost to Green Bay last week. The Giants are in trouble as the injury bug. WR Wan'Dale Robinson is out for the year due to a Torn ACL which is devastating as he was showing flashes in his rookie season. On the o-line Jon Feliciano suffered a neck injury which is concerning. CB Adoree’ Jackson and CB Fabian Moreau left with injuries and is a big concern with that secondary. S Jason Pinnock (Who I am still annoyed the Jets decided to cut in the preseason) also left with a Jaw injury.
The amount of injuries is why the Cowboys are 9 point favorites. I still just can’t trust Dallas as they have been such an inconsistent team this year. Especially as the Cowboys have been going up and down lately. This being a division game, I will take the points with the Giants as they are still a well coached and talented team to be underdogs by 9 points.
My Pick: New York Giants (+9)
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Out of all the games that are available to pick this week, this is my favorite game. Give me the Minnesota Vikings here. Yes, I know the Vikings got blown up against Dallas last week, but this is a nice bounce back spot here for the Vikings. The Patriots have a really good defense and they have had phenomenal performances, however their offense is awful. That's what happens when you have two hacks in Joe Judge and Matt Patricia running the offense. Even though it scares many with Kirk Cousins always struggling in primetime, but I think he breaks that in this game. I will take the Vikings here and I contemplated using the Vikings as my Superlock for this week.
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Sunday Football (1:00 pm)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (+3)
This feels like a weird spread to me as I did not expect it to be this small of a spread. Especially as Tampa is coming off a bye week and I thought Vegas would make this spread a bit higher. Especially with how bad the Browns defense is I would have thought this spread was going to be +6. Add onto that the Browns played a team with improper practices for weeks and at a neutral site was telling to me as well. I got to ask, Why is Joe Woods still employed as the defensive coordinator for the Browns? I am stunned that he has not been let go yet as the Browns defense has been poorly coached this season. Even though Watson is coming back soon, Brissett is not a problem on this team as he has been performing well this season. I don’t expect much to change when Watson returns and the Browns have a great run game. Tampa’s run defense is still pretty solid. Something is fishy about this spread though, and I probably am not going to bet on this game, but I am leaning towards taking Tampa Bay in this game.
My Pick Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (+1.5)
I am not a fan of the 1:00 games, but this is clearly the best game of this time slot. The Bengals will be without Joe Mixion which sucks, but It looks like Ja’Marr Chase could play this week for the Bengals which is a big back as the Bengals really need him back on offense. However I think this is a great revenge spot for Ryan Tannehill as he has wanted to get back at the Bengals after losing to them in the playoffs. I remembered reports coming out that Tannehill sought therapy after losing that game and everyone knows how badly he wants to win this game. Tennessee also has had extra time to prepare for this game as they played on Thursday Night Football last week as well. Plus with the Titans being the home team, I am going to take Tennessee here. I may even bet on this game.
My Pick:Tennessee Titans (+1.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4)
This is a big game for both teams that could help tiebreaker wise when it comes to the playoffs.To me one thing is for sure, Washington is a way better team with Taylor Henicke at QB than Carson Wentz is. I can tell you one thing: I would rather have Henicke over Marcus Mariota this season. I am shocked Mariota is still the starter, but I guess Atlanta wants to wait until they are eliminated from the playoffs before they start Desmond Ridder.If it were me though I would put him in sooner rather than later as Ridder could help them get to the playoffs as the QB play has been abysmal. It also doesn’t help that Kyle Pitts will be out for at least a month due to his knee injury. I mean they were not utilizing him properly, but with a change at QB maybe that would have changed. I like Washington this week and if Young officially returns, then this game is a must bet. It's a shame I just can’t care on the field as much as I do off it with the Commanders. That is of course all on the incompetent and sidgraceful ownership tenure of Dan Snyder. Sell the Team Snyder!
My Pick: Washington Commanders (-4)
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-12.5)
I am not going to go long here and there is a reason why. I think the Miami Dolphins will crush the Houston Texans in this game. Both teams are in a different spot where the Texans are trying to tank for either Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud and the Dolphins are trying to make it to the Super Bowl. The Dolphins are on a bye week and are the home squad. Plus the Texans are now starting Kyle Allen at QB. Take the Dolphins spread wise and even in survivor as they would have easily been my pick for this week.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins (-12.5)
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
That last game was a simple one to make, so why not make the next game feel more important. Well draft wise of course, as it is the 9th Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Two teams who have had their seasons not go to plan. I got to be real though, I really like the Carolina Panthers this week. Mainly because the Panthers have made yet another change and have Sam Darnold at QB. I think Darnold is the best QB on the team as PJ Walker is injured and Baker Mayfield stinks. Carolina’s defense is not the greatest, but is still a solid defensive core that should handle business against a terrible Denver Broncos offense. I mean they did well against the Baltimore Ravens as well. Even though he is an interim coach I would prefer Steve Wilks at head coach than Nathanial Hackett. I really like the under 35 total points in this game as well as I can really see the Panthers winning in a 17-14 game. Also Denver’s offense got worse with them releasing Melvin Gordon and I know he has had a fumbling problem, but he is the best weapon this offense had at running back.
On a side note, Melvin Gordon went too far with what he posted on social media, comparing his exit from the team of him fleeing like OJ Simpson did. If you want to see the post it is down below.
I get what he means by that, but come on comparing his exit with the Broncos to OJ is pushing it. As for this game, I am going to take Carolina.
My Pick: Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)
I really don’t know what to think about the Ravens this season anymore. Like they are a talented team and have the tools to do well this season, but it seems like they pull a Mike Tomlin where they play down to competition against weaker teams. They don’t hold leads or dominate games they should. The coaching has not been great this season from John Harbaugh. The Jags are statistically a good team, but just can’t win games when it mattered. I still think Baltimore wins obviously as they are more talented, but I am 50-50 with this spread, as they play close games and blow leads. I am also a bit concerned with Lamar Jackson being 100% as he is currently dealing with a hip injury as well. I will take the points with the Jaguars and play it safe, but I will not be betting this game.
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-5)
Last week as a Jets fan really got me annoyed and tipped the cap for me with Zach Wilson. I have been so unsure about him, but last week broke me and it is time for the jets to bench him. I don’t think the coaching staff has the balls to do it. Hold up let me check my phone.
Maybe the Jets do have a good coach. Finally the Jets did it, they benched Zach Wilson and Mike White will be the starter for this game. It is well deserved as for what Wilson said in that press conference, he should be benched in this game. This offense may not run well and if White struggles then they could easily go back to Zach. White in at QB is clearly an upgrade and morale booster in the locker room. Many players have been annoyed with how Wilson Handled himself after that game. It is clear the Jets are the better team on paper.
One thing that I am still lost about what is truly going on with Justin Fields. It is clear that he is dealing with a shoulder injury. I hate the way that the Bears have been so unclear with Fields' injury is.
On one hand there are reports saying it is a dislocated shoulder and others say it is an AC Sprain. Point is nobody truly knows what is going on with him. I mean,I seriously don’t understand what it means when they're calling the injury season ending/day to day. That is like saying that their roof has collapsed or the roof is only dripping. One thing is for sure Justin Fields is not 100% at all and that is not good at all for Chicago. There defense is bad and the offense has mainly been good due to how well Fields has performed this season. If it was me I would not be shocked if Trevor Siemian is the starter this week, but I am not sure.
This defense for the Jets should take care of business and dominate this game. With it being in Metlife, I am going to take the Jets in this spot.
My Pick: New York Jets (-5)
Sunday Football (4:05 pm)
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Out of all the spreads here, I have to ask how are the Seahawks 3.5 point favorites in this game? Seattle is coming off a bye week as well and this spread week makes no sense. The Raiders are a horrendous team and the only reasons they beat Denver last week is due to Melvin Gordon constantly fumbling the football and the Broncos having a worse head coach than McDaniels is. McDaniels is a terrible coach as well and if it was me he would have been fired after that Colts game, but the Raiders are not doing that probably due rumores of Mark Davis having money issues. I am taking the Seahawks here and this game is a must bet.
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
No update on if Kyler Murray will be ready to go for this week, but I guess later on in the week it will be clearer. Also the Cardinals even fired Sean Kugler who was their run game coordinator and offensive line coach. This seems like a panic move, but there is a reason why.
Apparently he was released for allegedly groping a woman in Mexico City, Mexico. It is a very disgraceful action for him to do that and It is super telling that they immediately decided to let go of Kugler too. Absolutely well deserved and I don’t see how he comes back from this one. Also its not a good sign when this the second coach that has been released from this organization for similar actions. Remember RB Coach James Sexton was also placed on leave for sexual assault alligations. He also eventually resigned as well from his job in Arizona.
Despite the questions surrounding the QB position and the distraction coaching wise, I kind of like the Cardinals this week. Despite the Chargers performing well against the Cheifs, they have a ton of injuries still. Arizona is getting healthier and with them being the home team I am going to take them this week. Even if they loose, which could be the case, I think they can cover the 4.5 points here.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
Sunday Football (4:25 pm)
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5)
Imagine saying earlier in the season that this game would not be important. However The Rams are just done as they have been derailed by injuries. They just lost DT A’Shawn Robinson for the season due to his knee injury and it looks like the Rams are going to shut down Matthew Stafford for the season due to his Concussion/Elbow injury. So it looks like the Rams starting QB will not be John Wolford, but Bryce Perkins. Perkins has actually been with the Rams for a few seasons and last week he showed promise. It's too bad the Rams are facing the Chiefs this week. I hate betting big spreads like this, but I will take the Chiefs here as I can see the Chiefs defense just dominating Perkins all game. I will end by asking the Rams a question, Why did you release RB Darrell Henderson?
My Pick: Kansas City Cheifs (-14.5)
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
Another easy pick for me to make here, give me the 49ers with this pick. This game is easily my superlock for this week no question. Their offense is super scary and the New Orleans Saints are going nowhere fast. At least their 1st round pick can get the Saints somewhere high, well to the Philadelphia Eagles of course due to that Chris Olave trade up. The Saints are just done and I can see the 49ers winning by like 20 points in this game. Not going longer, just take the 49ers and move on.
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
The Packers season is pretty much over after that loss against the Titans. It stuns me that Aaron Rodgers is still starting and I always thought it was more of a mental thing then an injury thing, however it looks like it is an injury issue.
First off, kudos to Rodgers playing the season with a broken thumb. This just adds ammo though as to why the Packers should start Jordan Love for the rest of the season. Now despite my concerns with the QB, I think this is too many points here. The Packers have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. While I think LaFleur is an overrated coach, I think the Packers can hold this score under a touchdown. Do I see them winning, no because the Eagles are super talented and should be undefeated right now if it was not for the refs in that commanders game.
My Pick: Green Bay Packers (+7)
Monday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Can this game get a big sponsor from a tank company? It will be a very important game long term after all. Welcome to the 10th Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Two teams with one goal in mind to tank to help build their team for the long term, as this season is clearly going nowhere with both teams. Look I get the Colts looked great against the Eagles and Raiders, however the Eagles had an off week and the Raiders are abysmal. The Steelers look a lot better with Watt back on defense and Pickett has been sold this season. I have no interest in betting on this game, but I am going to go with the Steelers here. I still can’t trust a team favorite with a declining Matt Ryan at QB, I’m sorry.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)