Image Credit: (Kevin Jairaj/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Twitter: @nicholasmullick
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 13. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6) Week 7 (9-5) Week 8 (7-8) Week 9 (7-5-1) Week 10 (7-7) Week 11 (5-9) Week 12 (12-3-1)
Total: (91-83-6)
Last week was the best week I have had betting wise, letts see if I can keep it up
Superlock Record (6-6) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8: Tennessee Titans, Week 9: Seattle Seahawks, Week 10 Dallas Cowboys, Week 11: Washington Commanders, Week 12: San Francisco 49ers
Shocked that the 49ers only scored 13 points, but besides than not a surprise that the 49ers performed well against the New Orlean Saints.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 12 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 13. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+4) This spread was originally 5.5 points, but apparently there is some sort of flu bug going on with the Bills as a lot of players are dealing with an illness so it has been dropping lately. Plus the bills have not looked that fantastic lately and almost lost to Detroit during Thanksgiving. We can all agree on paper that the Bills are the better team compared to the New England Patriots. Especially on offense as the Bills have the better quarterback and are more properly coached. Defense wise I wonder how the Bills will look without Von Miller as while he will return, I doubt he plays until the playoffs. I really don’t know where to go here and my unconfidence on either side is making this game a no bet for me, but I will take the Bills here.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills (-4)
Sunday Football (1:00 pm) Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) A large majority of the fans in the NFL are swarming towards betting the Ravens here. Can you really blame them though? The Broncos are one of the most dysfunctional organizations in the NFL right now. They have an incompetent head coach in Nathaniel Hackett and I am shocked that he still has a coaching job in the NFL today. Russell Wilson is turning into a cancer with the way he has played and handled himself off the field this season. They can’t cut him as just looking at the Dead Cap makes me want to puke.
The Broncos are in a really rough spot and are going nowhere this season. Baltimore would have been my survivor pick easily this week, but 8.5 points is a bit much for me to want to bet them spread wise. Especially as they have been pulling a Mike Tomlin and playing down to competition almost every week. They even have blown large leads and won close games. It is a no bet for me as I don’t want to touch the Broncos, but it is too many points.
My Pick: Denver Broncos (+8.5)
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) The AJ Brown Revenge game and I heavily expect the Eagles to throw to Brown. It is clear to me that the Eagles are a way better team than the Titans are. Ignoring their record they are a very fraudulent team and if they were not in the AFC South, they probably would have more losses then wins today. This should be a great right game for the Eagles as they should win games like this to ensure they get the 1st seed. Beating the Titans can help with that. I do think that 5 and a half points is a fair number though , so I will take the Eagles here. If this number rises to 7 points then I will take the Titans
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) I really want to make this game a tank game in the tournament for the 1st Overall Pick as it is in both teams interest to tank for a top draft pick long term. However, I decided not to as the Falcons still have a shot to make the playoffs. If the Falcons want to make the playoffs this year, Can they please start Desmond Ridder? I mean seriously as Mariota while not being abysmal, has still not made great throws at all. I want to see what the Falcons have in Ridder as he is the future of the Falcons, not Mariota. Arthur Smith this year has showcased that he is a pretty good coach as this team had no expectations and to win as many games as they have is still impressive. If this team was not cursed with blowing leads, they probably would lead the division. As for the Steelers, they have looked well excluding the fact that Keith Butler and Matt Canada are still employed as coordinators on the team. Man T.J. Watt returning has made this defense perform better and Pickett has looked well as the QB for the Steelers. I like where they are going and to me they are a team to watch next season. Especially when they invest in free agency and get rid of awful coaching. Then again this is the Steelers and it is not the “Steelers Way” to fire coaches so we will see what happens there. As for this game I kind of like the Steelers here as I think they are the better team over Atlanta.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+1)
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3) This is my favorite game in the NFL this week right now. The Vikings are a very great team this week and they are facing a rising Jets team with MIke F’n White as the quarterback. I know it's the Bears, but my goodness is Mike White so much better last week and even performing in the rain too which not a lot of people are talking about. Boy I went back and forth with this one. One one side I am leaning on the Jets as their defense is clearly one of if not the best defense in the NFL today and the offense has looked better on Mike White. I am leaning on the Vikings as they have looked phenomenal this season and they are so much more motivated with Kevin O’Connell as the head coach. This is a tough one here and I am going to probably avoid betting the game, but when in doubt I will take the points with the Jets.
My Pick: New York Jets (+3)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (+1.5) Even though both teams are on a hot streak, they have another streak they want to focus on, by getting higher draft capital. Welcome to the 11th Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Two teams who think they are competing for playoffs in reality are competing for a higher draft pick. Well you can probably convince me otherwise with Detroit, but like Dennis Green once said, “they are who we thought they were…”. Look I get why the Jags are the favorites as they did pull an upset against the Baltimore Ravens, but to me that game told more about the Ravens then it did with the Jaguars. We can all agree that the Jags defense on paper is better than the Lions are, but I still don’t think the Jags offense is that great. I doubt Travis Etienne plays and if he does, he will be on a snap count. Even though I have been iffy on Trever Lawrence this season, he has been playing better the past three games and I don’t think he has thrown an interception since they faced the Broncos. The Detroit offense has been doing great this year too and Jared Goff has been playing fine lately. The best part of their offense is RB Jamaal Williams and the Packers are clearly regretting letting him go during the offseason. I am leaning towards the Lions here as they have extra time to prepare for this game as they played on Thanksgiving.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+1.5)
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (+2) It makes sense why the Giants are underdogs with all of the injuries that they are dealing with. Plus the Commanders are performing well this season and are making me eat my words for putting Ron Rivera on the hot seat. Taylor Heinicke is so much better than Carson Wentz is at QB. Wentz to me as a starting quarterback in the NFL is pretty much done now as this was his true last chance with the Commanders. This is a very important game for both games as it can lead to tiebreaker scenarios when it comes to the playoffs and maybe the division. I have to ask, Is Chase Young ever going to play this season? There has been like 6 weeks where he is about to make his return and last second they just pull him out of starting. I get being cautious with him, but If he does not then the knee injury must be super bad if that is the case. I just don’t know what side to take here. I am not going to bet on this game, but I am going to take what I feel is the better team and to me it's the Commanders.
My Pick: Washington Commanders (-2)
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (+7) Now this is a game that I really like betting wise. This is the game where Deshaun Watson is back starting and I really think he will be very rusty in this game. I doubt he performs like the old Deshaun as it has been like 2 years since he last played a down of football. Plus I kind of think excluding the running game for Cleveland, they are a really bad team. I get Houston is bad, but I really see the Texans winning this game as the Browns will overlook this game. This is also way too many points for me to trust the Browns. Give me the Texans and I can really see them winning this game. I am making the Texans my superlock this week as well.
My Pick: Houston Texans (+7) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+4.5) Now let's get into the important games, as this is the 12th Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Even though there is an unknown with who is starting at QB, they're going to start Aaron Rodgers are they? I don’t get it as Jodan Love looked great against the Eagles and I want to see him start more as this season is starting to go nowhere for the Packers. Maybe an injured Aaron Ridgers can play well against a Chicago Bears team that has quit the season. They have given up and with WR Darnell Mooney and S Eddie Jackson done for the season, what reason is there to not tank. I am taking the Packers here and I may even bet this game.
My Pick: Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Sunday Football (4:05 pm)
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
This is the game of the week for me and it is the McDaniel bowl. I mean I hate to say potential superbowl matchup, but come on this is definitely a potential matchup in February. By the way did you know that the 49ers have not given up a second half point in like a month. That is just an insane fact I never knew about until I researched this matchup. It looks like both tackles in Miami, Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson are injured which is a big loss knowing how talented the 49ers defense is. That to me is the only reason why I am leaning towards the 49ers, as this game was a tough one to pick. I expect this game to be high scoring and I find it more intriguing that the over/under of this game is 46.5. I am betting the Over in this game and it seems like a must bet this week as both offenses are fantastic. Spread wise, I will take the 49ers, but I am not confident.
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+7)
Talk about a difference a year can make. At this point last year the Rams were easy Superbowl picks, now they are picks to potentially win the Tank Bowl and possibly get the 1st or 2nd Overall Pick. Oh wait, its Detroit Lions property due to the Matthew Stafford Trade. The Rams have seemingly given up for the Season as it looks like Matthew Stafford is going to be shut down for the year along with WR Allen Robinson. Also DT Aaron Donald is injured and I doubt he plays this week as well. Seattle should take care of business and win this week as they are so much better. If the Seahawks lose this game, then there are real problems with the Seahawks. I think that this is a nice bounce back spot for Seattle and I think the Seahawks also cover this spread. I don’t see the Rams covering this game, I am sorry. My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Sunday Football (4:25 pm)
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (+1)
I debated this or the 49ers/Dolphins game of the week. By the way this game originally opened as the Bengals being 3 point underdogs. Which of course now dropped to 1 point underdogs. For the Bengals, there is no word on if Ja’Marr Chase or Joe Mixon will play in this game. I guess they are if this spread is continuing to drop, but I am not sure. Even if they are back, I still think the Chiefs are the better team and their defense, especially their pass rush, is better than it was the last time these two teams faced off against each other. I got to ask, Is it just me or has the NFL and many in the media not talked or hyped about the Chiefs this year like they did last year? It seems very light in regards to the hype with chiefs and it feels strange. Especially as I think the Chiefs are no question the best team in the NFL. I will take the Chiefs in this game.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-1)
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-1) This spread makes no sense. Look, the Chargers are a terrible team that is being carried by Justin Herbert, but the Raiders are so much worse. I don’t care if the Raiders beat Seattle, they were trying to give that game to the Seahawks. Brandon Staley is a terrible coach that is probably out of a job at the end of the year, but Josh McDaniels is so much worse. If I was the Raiders I would run all game as the Chargers run defense is just so bad. However overall the Chargers are just better on paper and there is no way should be underdogs in this game, so I will take the Chargers here and I may even bet on this game.
My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (+1)
Sunday Night Football Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) Uhh I hate that this is the game for Sunday Night. Can they switch this game with the Chiefs at Bengals or Dolphins at 49ers? Nothing against the Cowboys as they well deserve this spot, but not against a horrible Colts team. I will make this quick, I will take the Colts spread wise and the Cowboys win the game. It's just too many points for me to trust the Cowboys being 10.5 point favorites, especially with Mike McCarthey as the head coach.
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+10.5)
Monday Night Football New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) No word yet on who the starting quarterback for the Saints will be. I am just going to say this now, if the Saints are not going to play Jameis Winston in this game, then they should just shut him down for the season. I get back injuries are no joke, but I hate the fact that they are playing with Winstons injury. But despite who is starting at QB for the Saints, I am taking them in this game. Tampa’s o-line is a trainwreck already and with Tristen Wirfs out for a while Brady is going to get hit hard. I have been outspoken about Todd Bowles as the head coach before the season began and got a lot of heat, but I have been so right about him being a terrible head coach. He has not learned from his tenure with the Jets and is making the same mistakes over and over again. Bowles is horrendous with his time management and holding those timeouts because the clock is going to run out anyway is one of the dumbest reasonings I have ever heard of.
My Pick: New Orleans Saints (+4)