Image Credit: (Sam Navarro/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 14. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6) Week 7 (9-5) Week 8 (7-8) Week 9 (7-5-1) Week 10 (7-7) Week 11 (5-9) Week 12 (12-3-1) Week 13 (8-7)
One away from 100, but getting more wins than losses is a plus. Last week was the best week I have had betting wise, letts see if I can keep it up
Superlock Record (6-7) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8: Tennessee Titans, Week 9: Seattle Seahawks, Week 10 Dallas Cowboys, Week 11: Washington Commanders, Week 12: San Francisco 49ers, Week 13: Houston Texans
I had the right Idea going with Houston this week, but they have just given up this season.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 13 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 14. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams (+6)
I like games like this, as it showcases the value of the future, well for draft picks. Welcome to the 13th TANK Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. The best part is that this game is in primetime and the NFL realizes the value of Tank Games. Now, we don’t know who will be starting at QB for the Rams this week now that they acquired Baker Mayfield via waivers. If It was me I think it would be John Wolford starting. It would be a bad idea immediately starting Baker this week as he has little to no knowledge on the playbook. I could see Josh Freeman going into bad territory if they start Baker. The Rams are pretty much done as they have had an insane amount of injuries in this game. Even though I have been vocal against the Raiders, mainly due to the horrible coaching of Josh McDaniels, they should win this game. 6 points seems like a bit much for me to want to bet on here, but I am leaning towards the Raiders as the Rams are so banged up right now. I won’t bet it, but if I was alive in Survivor I would have gone with them this week.
My Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (-6)
Sunday Football (1:00 pm) Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5) Wow did not expect the Lions to be favorites in this game. This is coming from a guy that is a big Dan Campbell guy and is intrigued with what the Lions have been doing. The Vikings were lucky last week with the Jets failing to score in the red zone, but they got to perform better. This spread just feels bizarre as the Vikings are clearly the better team on paper and I wonder if they know something that we don’t. Whether it is due to injury or anything else. I will take the points with the Vikings as it is just too good of a spread to pass on. I debated this as my superlock, but decided not too.
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) The battle of the 2 notable teams that have been playing down to competition the past few years. We have the veterans of the Pittsburgh Steelers who have for many years been notable for playing down to massly inferior competition during the Tomlin Years. They are playing against the Baltimore Ravens who have been studying Tomlins techniques on how to play down to competition as the Ravens have done it for multiple weeks this year. No Lamar Jackson as he will be out a few weeks due to a knee injury. Is it me, or did Lamar look like he has been playing hurt the past few weeks? This may help long term resting him for a few weeks when it comes to playoffs. Plus Tyler Huntley is a good backup to have as well. The Steelers have been better and defense got healthier with TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick's return. There the only two superstar players on that defense and it showed this season. On offense, I like how Kenny Pickett is performing the past few weeks and lets see if he will keep this up. Along with hopefully getting a competent offensive coordinator next year. As for this game, I kind of am leaning towards taking the points with Baltimore here. I will pass on betting the game as I am not confident.
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+7)
When I first saw this spread, I was a bit shocked it was 7 points. While the Giants are a solid team, the injuries have really kept growing. However, that tie against the Commanders told more about Washington than it did with the Giants. I don’t think the Giants have the power or the depth to beat the Eagles this week. What is there really to say about the Philadelphia Eagles. They are such a great team, that they got a GM of a football team fired (Oh, We Will get to that later in this article). They are a big favorite to represent the NFC in the superbowl. In regards to this game, I feel 7 points is a bit much, but I think the Eagles will win the game and cover the spread. I don’t think I will bet it unless the spread falls, but I doubt that will happen.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
I seriously don’t believe that the Browns are a QB away from competing and last week proved it Deshaun Watson looked very rusty against the Texans. Yes they won, but that was despite Watson there. What sucks is the Texans secondary is on the mediocre trend for defense. Cleveland still has a big amount of problems, and just look at how bad their defense has been coached lately. I am still shocked Joe Woods is still employed as the defensive coordinator of this team. It would stun me if he is the defensive coordinator for the 2023 season. As for this game, I really like the Cincinnati Bengals here as they are getting healthier and I feel they have less problems compared to the Cleveland Browns.
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
This is my game of the Afternoon slot as both teams are battling for potentially in the AFC East. This spread is super disrespectful as the Jets are a better team with Mike White than Zach Wilson. I get the Bills are the home team, but come on with how good the Jets defense is, this should be around a 5 or 6 point spread. I can see the Jets winning this game as the Bills compared to the last time they faced the Bills don’t have Von Miller which is a big loss. I can see the Jets winning this game, so I will take the Jets here in this game.
My Pick: New York Jets (+9.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4)
Ok so lets get this out of the way now, but as a result of the Eagles destroying the Titans last week a change was needed, so they decided to fire GM Jon Robinson. Wait What? First off, this seems weird to fire him as the Titans are 1st in the AFC South and playing for playoffs. I am shocked the Titans did not wait until the end of the playoffs. Second, excluding the AJ Brown and Julio Jones trades that have flopped for the Titans, he has not been that bad of a GM. The drafting has not been fantastic the past few years, but they gotta stop with throwing him under the bus for the Isaiah Wilson and Caleb Farley selections. At the time he selected Farley he was hands down the best corner in the draft and it is not his fault that Farley’s back has not held up in the NFL. As for Isaiah Wilson, well that guy was one of the quickest and most stunning fall from graces I have seen in the past few years. The guy flushed his career right down the commode with his action. I believe that Robinson will get another position in the NFL no question as he built the Titans from a trainwreck to a rising team.
As for this game, it is an important game for the Titans. If they lose this game then trouble could be afloat. This division is down to the Jags or Titans. I think the Jags are still a bad team and I doubt Trevor Lawrence is 100% healthy entering this game. The Titans are the more well coached team and because this game is in Tennessee I am leaning towards taking them. I will say this though RB Derrick Henry needs to wake up and play better as he has been in a slump the past few weeks. Maybe he can wake up and run all over the Jaguars here.
My Pick: Tennessee Titans (-4)
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-17)
The largest spread of the season so far. I mean I am not going long here as I legit could care less about this game. The Texans are just horrendous and if the Cowboys can score as many points as they did against the Colts then they should cover this spread. I think they will, so I am taking the Cowboys here in this spot.
My Pick Dallas Cowboys (-17)
Sunday Football (4:05 pm)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+9.5)
Thank god this game is flexed out at primetime as it is just sad watching the Broncos offense play. I mean it really is and I used to love Russell Wilson when he played with the Seahawks, but he has not worked out at all. Even Culturally in that locker room, I doubt his teammates are big fans of him either. Sucks that his dead cap will be keeping him here for many seasons to come. But hey at least their 1st round pick will help build this offense, oh wait its Seattle Seahawks property. I have to ask, When are the Broncos going to fire Nathanial Hackett? He is easily the worst Head Coach in the NFL right now, and I doubt that he is the coach of the future for this game. The worst part is watching that excellent defense be wasted this season. As for this game, yeah I am taking the Chiefs here as I have no confidence in Denver.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Sunday Football (4:25 pm)
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-4)
I don’t even know what to think about this game. Carolina recently released Baker Mayfield which was just inevitable, but I think he was there best QB. This is coming from a guy who was a big Darnold fan from his USC and New York Jets days. Facing off against Seattle is a test for Darnold as the Seahawks defense excluding there secondary has been really bad the past few weeks. If Darnold can’t perform well here, then that is yet another nail in his coffin as a starting QB in the NFL. Although the Seaahawks will be without Kenneth Walker as he is out due to his injury, I really like the Seahawks here. Carolina an east coach team traveling to play the Seahawks on the west coast is a big benefit for Seattle as well and I will take them here. I may even bet this game if the spread remains.
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Oh dear, where to start with the Buccaneers. They got really lucky that they faced the Saints last week who just mismanaged it. Why did the Saints just run Zone Defense the rest of that game? Brady has been exposing that style of defense for years. Tampa’s offense is a mess, their defense is beaten up, and they are so poorly coached, I really like the 49ers this week and I think Brock Purdy could impress this week. He played well last week and worse for worse the 49ers will just win via their defense just dominating Tampa Bay.
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Sunday Night Football Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)
Here we go, as this game got moved from being a 1:00 game to a primetime spot. Emmanuel Acho watch out as there could be some social media moments in this game. Can we make an exception and have him commentate in this game with how much he has spoken up about Herbert and Tagovailoa. It looks like Tua will be ready to go this week for the Dolphins which is a plus. On paper the Dolphins should take care of business as I got to say, the Chargers are just a mess right now. The coaching is a big problem as Brandon Staley is a terrible coach that should be gone at the end of the season. Also Chargers if you keep Staley at least get Joe Lombardi out of here as he is a bad offensive coordinator. He is Matt Canada level of bad and get that guy out of here. The Chargers have injury issues as well on this team. My question is simple: Why is the spread that low? 3.5 points just seems too small here and I don't understand why it is low. Is it because the Dolphins have to travel across the country from the east coach to the west coast? I am taking the Dolphins in this game and I am taking the Dolphins as my Superlock this week.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Monday Night Football New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5)
This spread is super off. When I first saw this spread, I could not believe it. I get that the Cardinals are coming off a bye week, but the Patriots are coming off a mini bye playing last week on Thursday. The Pats offense may be run by hacks and I think Mac Jones is terrible, but Arizona is poorly coached. Kingsbury has got to go at the end of this season as he has done a bad job coaching the team. I would even throw in Steve Keim to that list as I am shocked he is still the GM. I just feel the Patriots (Excluding on offense) are more properly coached so I will take the Patriots.
My Pick: New England Patriots (-1.5)