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NFL Spread Picks Week 16 (2022)



Image Credit: (Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports)


Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/

Twitter: @nicholasmullick

Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 16. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.


Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6) Week 7 (9-5) Week 8 (7-8) Week 9 (7-5-1) Week 10 (7-7) Week 11 (5-9) Week 12 (12-3-1) Week 13 (8-7) Week 14 (6-7) Week 15 (6-10)


Total: (111-107-6)


Superlock Record (7-8) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8: Tennessee Titans, Week 9: Seattle Seahawks, Week 10 Dallas Cowboys, Week 11: Washington Commanders, Week 12: San Francisco 49ers, Week 13: Houston Texans, Week 14: Miami Dolphins, Week 15: Cincinnati Bengals


It was scary the first few minutes of that game, but the Bengals woke up and won. The Buccaneers are just freaking horrendous.


Now that I looked back on how I did Week 15 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 16. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.


Thursday Night Football

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1) I don’t care what anyone says about both franchises, I will always say that the Jags vs Jets game is my favorite game of the week no matter how bad, mediocre, or good they are. They are both my favorite franchises in the NFL and no matter the result of this game I really can’t lose. Either one of my favorite teams will win so I won’t lose which is a plus. For the Jets, last week was such a heartbreaker losing to the Lions. There are three things I took away is that first off, the Jets defense has to play better as the past few weeks they have been on Airplane Mode during games where they have not played to potential.Third, Saleh has to do a better job with the way he utilizes his timeouts as he has been inconsistent all season with his in game management. I am buying into Saleh as a coach, but he is starting to remind me of Anthony Lynn when he was the head coach of the Chargers.. Third, man the Jets really need a QB next season as Zach Wilson sucks. He does the hardest parts being a QB well, but messes up the basics. When Mike White is healthy, he is the quarterback. He won’t play this week, but White better bet the starting QB when he is healed. Also, the Jets better not start Joe Flacco if Wilson goes down with injury. No disrespect to Flacco as he was talented with the Ravens, but I never want to see Flacco start another game as a New York Jet ever again.

If it was me, I really think the Jaguars should win their division as Tennessee is an absolute mess (Oh we will get to that later). But man the Jags showcase that coaching matters in the NFL and how great they are performing goes to show how bad of a coach Urban Meyer was with the team.


No word on if Quinnen Williams will return for the Jets, which is a concern t as Travis Etienne could destroy the Jets defense if Williams is out. Trevor Lawrence is finally performing well and carved up the Dallas Cowboys defense. I am 50/50 with this game and I probably won’t bet it unless Quinnen is officially out this week, but I am leaning towards taking the Jaguars here.


My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+1)

Saturday Football (1:00 PM)

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+3.5)

I got to say, it was hilarious with the way New England lost that game against the Raiders last week. After that game finished I asked a lot of my friends, “Can Matt Patricia be fired now?”. I don’t care if Jakobi Meyers and Rhamadore Stevenson were idiots in doing a lateral. Why in the world did the Patriots not call a Hail Mary at that moment? I mean it is a 56 yard throw and Mac Jones can throw it deep, why not just take a shot and give Mac a shot? That game tells me that the Patriots either don’t see Mac Jones as the guy at QB or Matt Patricia doesn’t like Jones. I am guessing that the answers are both.


I really like the Cincinnati Bengals in this game and it makes no sense that this game spread is as low as it is. The Patriots are garbage and their offense is a mess right now. The coaching on offense is a mess and I really don’t think that the Patriots have their franchise QB. The Bengals play scrappy football, but I just don’t see how the Bengals don’t cover the spread. This game is absolutely a must bet for me, it won't be my superlock as there are two games I like more, but its close.


My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)


Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+9.5)

If this was the spread a month ago it would seem strange. However, something strange is going on with Seattle. I think it is due to injuries going on especially at wide receiver, but they have seemed to have run out of gas at this point. It is crunch time for Seattle, but remember the Seahawks have extra rest as they played Thursday Night last week. I don’t know if it will be enough to win the game, but I really like the Seahawks spread wise. The Chiefs play games close and I can’t remember when they covered a large spread like this last season. I will take Seattle here.


My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+9.5)


New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Both teams despite winning did not come across that great last week. The Giants should send Christmas Gifts to every official that refereed that game against the Commanders as they got a ton of help from them. The Vikings despise coming back from a 33 point deficit are such frauds. I was sus on them the past few weeks, but last week showcased it. This game is such a trap game as the Vikings on paper are better, but the Giants are still a good football team. The Giants have no wide receivers, but the Viking Secondary has not been great this season. I kind of like the Giants here as this feels like a bad spot for the Vikings. You would be out of your mind to bet on this game or even choose the Vikings in survivor.


My Pick: New York Giants (+3)


Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7)

If there is one team that has heavily been exposed this season it is the Tennessee Titans. This team is an absolute mess. They looked awful against a beaten up/poorly coached Chargers team, The Titans offense is an absolute mess and Derrick Henry most weeks has not ben utilized in a consistent way. Ryan Tannehill can’t stay healthy and even when healthy has been inconsistent this season. Tannehill might not even play this week due to his ankle injury and the Titans will have to start Malik Willis who is still very raw as a prospect. I will say on the Titans offense they may really have something in TE Chigoziem Okonkwo as he has shown flashes the past few weeks. He has looked better than Austin Hooper this season. The Titans defense is super up and down as well and I get this is the Texans, but you really think that they are good enough to hold a touchdown lead/win. I don’t think so and I will take the points with the Texans who at this point have players auditioning for jobs next season. Tennessee needs to wake up as if they don’t make the playoffs this year, then it would not shock me if Mike Vrabel is gone as the head coach at the end of the season.


One last thing I have to say about Tennessee, Todd Downing, their offensive coordinator, like get this guy out of the coaching staff. I don’t care if Tennessee makes the playoffs or not as Downing is just a horrendous offensive coordinator. He is in the Joe Lombardi/Matt Canada tier as offensive coordinator.


My Pick: Houston Texans (+7)


New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Now lets get into an important game, when deciding the draft picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Welcome to the 17th TANK Game in the tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. I get the Browns still technically have a chance making the playoffs, but they area long shot now. Look, I get that he is rusty, but my goodness Deshaun Watson is horrible. He is not ready to be the starting QB and has made some awful throws all season. As long as he is the quarterback this season, I don’t see the Browns making the playoffs. In 2023 it maybe a different story, but I would be very concerned regarding Watson. Brissett to me is the better quarterback right now than Brisett is. Also something that could be an issue is that RB Nick Chubb has a foot injury and might now even play. Even though they have Kareem Hunt, Chubb is there best offensive weapon. The defense is still garbage and will be worse as it looks like Myles Garrett & Jadeveon Clowney also might not play as they have not practiced yet. Even if healthy, I can’t trust this defense with Joe Woods as the defensive coordinator.


As for the Saints, they are the one team in the NFC South that really looks done. Andy Dalton arm strength is gone and he looks cooked. I doubt Jameis comes back this season too either. I hate saying this as I was a Alvin Kamara fan, but he is starting to show signs of decline lately. If you are in a Dynasty League, I would absolutely trade him during the offseason for prospects or draft picks. The thing that holds me back from betting the Saints is that Dennis Allen is a horrible head coach. He is a good defensive coordinator, but he is a horrendous head coach. I will say the Saints defense is still very solid and I expect them to perform well and hold off a rusty Watson. I do like the Saints in this game, but like I said earlier, I just can’t bet this game.


My Pick: New Orleans Saints (+3)


Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)

These are two teams that I hope make the playoffs in the NFC. In Carolina’s case I hope they win the division as I think that they are the best team in a terrible NFC South division. In the case of the Lions, they are a rising team that has a lot of exciting youth/coaching that is exciting. I wonder if Carolina is done as they lost to a Steelers team who was trying to give them a win in that game last week. The Lions are just the better team overall and the spread is right for me to take the Lions here. If this spread rises to 4 maybe 5 points then I may switch to the Panthers side.


My Pick Detroit Lions (-2.5)


Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (+8.5)

I am not going long here. I think the Bills are more talented and should win this game. Heck I would have made them my survivor pick for this week. But it just feels like too many points, especially with Fields being the QB for the Bears and the weather is going to suck for this matchup where it will be cold and snowy. So I will take the points with the Bears, but there is no way the Bills lose here.


My Pick: Chicago Bears (-8.5)


Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Look I get the Falcons are a mediocre team, but 7 points is just too many points. Yes the Ravens defense is arguably in the Top 5 in the NFL, but their offense is a mess without Lamar at QB. Huntley is a very mediocre QB and he has not been playing well at all. If the Ravens could not score against a terrible Browns defense, what makes me think they can against the Falcons. Also Greg Roman is definitely on the hot seat as they have been poorly coached this season and we all know that Harbaugh is not going anywhere if they don’t make the playoffs. Although Ridder has not looked great last week, I can really see Atlanta playing this game close. I am leaning towards Atlanta here and this was also a consideration for my superlock, but there is one game I liked more.


My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+7)


Saturday Football (4:05 PM)

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Oh dear where to begin here. First of all, let's be real, the refs jobbed the Commanders last week. There were so many calls that went against them that I was fuming after that game. The calls were so bad that it almost seemed like the Refs wanted the Giants to win. It was absolutely heinous and it ruined another solid game. This is coming from a guy who hates the Commanders organization and the owner Dan Snyder (Sell The Team Snyder!!!).


As for this game, come on. I get the 49ers are on track and they really look like they have something in Brock Purdy, but 7 is just too many points. It is a bit scary when an east coast team has to travel to the west coast to play a game, but the Commanders are still a good team. I think the 49ers are the better team and should win this game, but I am taking the points.


My Pick: Washington Commanders (+7)


Saturday Football (4:25 PM)

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-6)

Looks like Jalen Hurts will not be playing this week due to his shoulder injury. If it was me, I probably would not play him until maybe a portion of Week 18 if I was the Eagles. So now the Eagles are going to start in my opinion the best 6th round QB in NFL History, Gardner Minshew. Who cares about Tom Brady and his 7 rings, Minshew is super talented and can throw over mountains like Uncle Rico did.


Ok, Jokes aside I think Minshew is still a good option at QB. In my opinion Minshew is the best and most dependable backup QB in the NFL. He is going to have his hands full with Dallas’s defense which has been great this season. I don’t know what happened last week as Dallas gave up last week against the Jaguars. Then I remembered Mike McCarthy is the head coach and it made me understand more. I kind of like Philly here as it is too many points, but lets be real there are better games to bet.


My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+6)


Saturday Night Football

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Now let's get to the important games for draft picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Welcome to the 18th Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Both teams at this point are long shots to make the playoffs and let's be real they are not getting in. Maybe if they had competent coaches on both sides that could change. Josh McDaniels is still a terrible head coach for the Raiders, and the Steelers Coordinators are garbage. It looks like Kenny Pickett is going to start for the Steelers which is a boost on offense. This has potential to be another bad weather game and last I checked this game may be played in -2 degree weather which is going to be a pain in the neck. I really don’t know where to go here with this game, but I think I will be leaning towards the Steelers as Tomlin is the better coach, Pickett is returning, and I still can’t trust the Raiders.


My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)


Sunday Football (1:00 PM)

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-5.5)

To me the game of the week with my bias is the New YorkJets vs Jacksonville Jaguars, but if I did not choose that game I would have gone with Packers vs Dolphins. This is a must win for the Packers as they pretty much have to win out to make the playoffs. Problem is the Packers have to face the Miami Dolphins who are desperate to get a win in a crowded AFC Playoffs fight. This one was a tough one as I can see this game going either or here. I think it will be a close one. I say Miami wins the game, but the Packers Cover the Spread.


My Pick: Green Bay Packers (+5.5)


Sunday Football (4:30 PM)

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams (+1) Dang, they did not move this game out of this spot. I guess they want to make this game an important one and showcase the value of a special tournament. As it is the 19th Tank Game in the tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. I have to ask, unless you are a Detroit Lions or Seattle Seahawks fan, does anybody really care about this game? I guess maybe Broncos or Rams fans as they have nothing to lose and they could benefit from getting a win. This is a great time frame to play as a background noise during a Christmas party. You know what, I am going to flip a quarter for who I will go with for this game, as I could care less about it. Heads is for the Rams, Tails is for the Broncos. It landed on Tails, so I will go with the Broncos.


My Pick: Denver Broncos (-1)


Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (+8) I don’t care if the Buccaneers are likely a playoff team, the NFC South is a Tank Division, so Welcome to the 20th Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. It looks like Trace McSorley is going to start for the Cardinals, which is not surprising. I wonder who will be the backup if it will be David Blough or James Morgan, but I am not sure. What I do know is that Tampa Bay is horrible. They are going to be the worst team in the NFL that makes the playoffs no question. You can debate the Titans, but at least they have competent coaching. Todd Bowles is a horrible head coach and Byron Leftwich is looking like a fraud every week as the offensive coordinator. I like the Arizona Cardinals here as there is no way that Tampa should be 8 point favorites. Could they win this game, probably. I do think this game will be close and I can see a scenario where Arizona just wins outright. I will take the Cardinals and you know what, they are my superlock for this week, so I can have a reason to watch this game.


My Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+8) *Superlock Pick Of The Week*


Monday Night Football Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (+4) Looks like the starting QB for the Indianapolis Colts is going to be Nick Foles which is not a shock at all. Matt Ryan is done and his arm strength is gone. I think Foles as the starter is telling with Sam Ehlinger. I got to say, I am shocked that Jeff Saturday is still the interim head coach after that disgraceful game against the Vikings. That loss pretty much ended his chance of being the permanent head coach. I seriously hope that is not the last game in Matt Ryan’s career as he deserves to go out in a much better way. The Colts are done and even though they technically have a chance making the playoffs, let's be real they are not making it in. As for this week, The Colts here are a more attractable bet now with Foles starting. Look I know the Chargers are better on paper, but they are a freaking miracle with their record being high when looking at the horrendous coaching and injuries surrounding the Chargers. Justin Herbert is a fantastic QB who is carrying this team through the season. I think that the Chargers should take care of business against a dead Indianapolis Colts team. I don’t care who is starting for the Colts now, if the Chargers lose this game then that is going to be a big problem the closer it comes to the playoffs. You know what, I have hope for the


My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (-4)



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