Image Credit: (Dale Zanine/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 3. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7)
Not bad as last year I went I got above a .500 Record which is a plus and hopefully I can keep it up during my spread picks for next week.
Superlock Record (1-0) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2 Cleveland Browns
Like I said I am going to keep a record of my Superlocks each week. For this week due to the Browns brutal loss against the Jets I lost my superlock last week. Luckily the Jets are my team so I came out of that game with a smile.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 2 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 3. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Spread -4.5)
You know last week was bittersweet for me betting the Browns. I am glad my favorite team in the Jets won, but I lost my superlock last week due to the Browns shenanigans last week. I mean that game told me more about the Browns than the Jets. It was a brutal loss for the Browns and I got to say their secondary is a big weakness. Their defensive coordinator Joe Woods got burned yet again using the same schemes that the team got exposed against Carolina. Also I got to say Grant Delpit has struggled so far this season and he needs to get his act together for this week. This week is a must win for Cleveland, but I really am not so sure about how the Browns will do defensively if Myles Garrett is not playing. Apparently he has a neck issue and might not play. Someone who wont play is DE/EDGE Jadeveon Clowney as he is out of this game due to injury. Offensively the Browns did fine and my questions rely on defense.
As for Pittsburgh they’re a team that is very mediocre without TJ Watt on that defense. I mean they lost to a Matt Patricia led offense who was trying to give the win to the Steelers. On offense, I think that they are terrible and they got rid of Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator. His play calling is just horrendous and coaching is a big reason why. You know who else is horrendous, QB Mitchell Trubisky. He made some terrible throws last week in that Patriots game and I really wonder when Pittsburgh is going to make a change at QB, because I just don’t see Trubisky starting every game for Pittsburgh. As for this game, you would be insane to even bet this game, because it can go either way and there are better games to bet. I will take the points with Pittsburgh as 4.5 points is a bit much and I see this being a 3 point game, but I think Cleveland will win the game.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)
UPDATE: I am writing this article during the game and when I finished the Browns Steelers game just ended. I keep saying this but the Steelers have to get rid of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. He is the big problem with the Steelers with the horrendous play calling. I may be bold here, but Matt Canada is worse than Randy Fincter was as the offensive coordinator. I would say he should get fired, but the Steelers don't fire coaches and either have them retire or conveniently let their contracts expire. One other thing I got to say is Mitchell Trubisky is horrible and the ship has long sailed for him being a franchise QB in the NFL. He will be a journeyman in this league and the Steelers need to start Kenny Pickett this season. Not Mason Rudolph as he is somehow still a Steeler, but I don’t see the Steelers as a playoff team with Trubisky as the starter. I am sorry. But since the Browns won 29-17 I lost this game spread wise.
Sunday Football (1:00 PM)
Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans (Spread +2)
Oh dear wear to begin with this game. A predictable disaster in the Raiders vs a disappointing disaster in the Titans. So why do I call the Raiders a predictable disaster, well it's because they are coached by Josh McDaniels. Even though it has been 2 weeks it seems like McDaniels has not learned his lesson from his Denver days as the head coach. Even though so far the Raiders have not looked great, I like them this week against the Titans. The Titans are beaten up right now. No Taylor Lewan for the Titans and I would be shocked if he comes back this season. Bud Dupree is also injured as well. One question so far I have come out with Tennessee these first few weeks, is What happened to Ryan Tannehill? He looks to have suffered massive levels of regression this year and I believe Malik Willis will be the full time starter at the end of the season if Tannehill continues to struggle. I will take the Raiders here.
My Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (-2)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (Spread +3)
When I first saw this spread it seemed a bit fishy. Then I looked at the injury report and yet again Baltimore has issues especially at cornerback. Marlon Humphery, Marcus Peters, Brandon Stephens, and Damarion Williams all are dealing with injuries right now. Who knows what there status is, but on offense it does not look like WR Devin Duvernay is not going to play this week due to his concussion injury. We will see if JK Dobbins will play and It is a wait and see sling with TE Isaiah Likely. Apparently Lamar Jackson has an elbow issue now. I think he plays, but it is something to watch now. However, despite the injury concerns, I think that they should take care of business against the Patriots, because I think that they are terrible. They were trying to give that game last week to the Steelers and that team failed to take it from them. I can’t trust the patriots offense when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge are running the offense I can’t. Give me the Ravens this week and I might even bet this game.
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Spread +5.5)
I think that this game is clearly the best of the afternoon slots. I had my doubts about Miami coaching wise, but so far they have looked great. I mean I know it is Week 3 and things could change, but overall Miami has performed well. Tua has performed well against Baltimore and New England, but this week is a big test as the Dolphins face easily the best team in the NFL. Plus Buffalo’s defense is going to have a healthy pass rush and the Patriots along with the Ravens did not have that clearly. Buffalo performed so well last week without WR Gabe Davis, and a chunk of their secondary. I mean Tennessee may be terrible, but still kudos for Buffalo for performing well. Now Buffalo is in a shorter week as remember they played Tennessee on Monday. I just think Buffalo overall is the better team. I will take the Bills in this matchup spread wise, but it would not shock me if Miami wins.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Spread +2.5)
Out of all the afternoon games for this week, I have no idea what to think about this game. I can’t trust New Orleans due to injuries, especially with Jameis Winston who clearly is not 100%. Back injuries are no joke and I doubt Winston will be healthy for the entire season and I can see Andy Dalton playing in a few weeks. I can’t trust Carolina, because Matt Rhule is still the head coach. It is no longer if, but Rhule gets fired. Plus Christian McCaffery is injured yet again. I mean roses are red and violets are blue at this point with McCaffery’s injuries. I will take the Saints, but I will not bet on this game at all.
My Pick: New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (Spread +6.5)
I got to be honest this is an easier game to pick here, give me the Philadelphia Eagles. I get Washington is the home team, but the Eagles are just overall the better team. The Commanders secondary is also terrible as well. One other thing is that I was a Carson Wentz guy and wanted him to succeed when he left Philadelphia. But Wentz failed in Indianapolis and he just has not been great in Washington either. I just feel Philly should take care of business winning this game and covering the spread. The Eagles would have been my survivor pick for week 3 as well.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (Spread -5)
This is a very important game for the Bengals and many say it is a must win for them due to how competitive this division is. They have not looked great against the Steelers who were trying to give that game away or the Dallas Cowboys without QB Dak Prescott. The investments the Bengals made on the o-line for now have not worked out. But I really think this is a nice bounce back spot for the Bengals here. Let's be real, the Jets only won last week because the Browns decided to go soft zone for defense. I have to say though, I am a big Garrett Wilson guy and the Jets really have something in him. I'm not going to bet on it, but I will take the Bengals in this game.
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-5)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (Spread -6)
Many are probably going to disagree with me when I say this, but If Aaron Rodgers was not the QB of the Packers I think the NFC North Division would definitely be Detroits to lose. I really like this game for Detroit, first this spread is way too high and even if the Vikings win it will for sure be a close one. Second, I just think that the Vikings secondary is still beaten up and if Harrison Smith is out, which I definitely think will happen, then the Lions offense will expose it. I contemplated using Detroit as my superlock, but I decided not to as to me there is one better choice. But this was a close second, so take the Lions and don’t look back.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+6)
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Spread +6.5)
You know I got to say I contemplated making the Colts my division winner pick weeks ago, but thank goodness I did not. What a disaster this team is and look I get its week 2, but this team looks horrendous against the Texans and Jaguars. I get that Injuries are a thing and they did not have LB Shaquille “Darius” Leonard on defense along with their receiver room being just derailed by injuries, but this team stinks. On a side note the Colts made a big mistake not doing much to build that receiver core during the offseason and they waited too long until the draft to fix it. The Colts only drafted one wide receiver from that draft is a bit of a head scratcher. Look I will forever respect what Matt Ryan has done in the NFL and that man should have a superbowl ring, but he is done. Ryan looks cooked these first two weeks and he is clearly no longer the guy he was in Atlanta. I would not be shocked if Nick Foles starts games this season as that is how bad Ryan has performed. He honestly was the worst QB that performed last week. The thing too about Indianapolis is that coaches at this point are fighting for jobs next season as I am not so sure Frank Reich’s job is safe and needs the playoffs to secure it for next season. No word yet on if the Colts will get their guys back, but they are facing the Chiefs. I know Mahomes is still hurt, but they have extra time to prepare for this game, I like the Chiefs here and like I said last week I am washing my hands betting the Colts until I see a reason too. So I will take the Chiefs and I am betting on this game.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (Spread -3)
I badly wanted to make this a tank game in the tournament for the 1st overall pick. But it is a bit early for me to do this. I really could care less about this game as I think both teams are horrendous. Yes the Texans looked competitive against the Colts and Broncos, but clearly those two teams were very overrated heading into the season. As for Chicago, I don’t understand what they are doing. Quick Question, Why is Justin Fields only throwing the ball 11 times last week? The Packers secondary is not great and I just am so confused with that decision. Then again I am confused on why Jack Easterby is still a part of the Texans organization so I guess they level out. Anyway I am going to blindly take the Texans here, but there is no chance I will be betting this game.
My Pick: Houston Texans (+3)
Sunday Football (4:05 PM)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (Spread -7)
This spread seems a bit high especially when there is still an unknown regarding Herbert’s injury. I mean the Chargers are clearly the better team, excluding coaching.They should be getting some pieces back on this team, Jacksonville is on the right track and is a dark horse to win the AFC South, but I don’t think they will win this game. Going to play a game from the east to west coast is very hard. I would bet the Chargers spread wise, but I am not sure how healthy Herbert is. I think the Chargers no question wins, but I will take the points with the Jacksonville Jaguars. I will also pass on betting this game.
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
Sunday Football (4:25 PM)
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Spread +3.5)
Many think this is a slam dunk easy pick here as Arizona is terrible, but I am not so sure about that. I debated this game for a while now actually. I mean I think the Rams are a good team, but their offensive line is terrible and they are dearly missing Andrew Whitworth on the o-line. The Cardinals defense may be below average/mediocre but they should apply pressure to Stafford in this game. I am not going to bet the game, but I will take the Rams here. Oh and one other thing, Marquise Brown has to be better this week. Especially, as he had big drops against the Raiders and Chiefs (Even though he scored one touchdown). He could have easily had 5 touchdowns, but he dropped the football many times.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (Spread -2)
Another game I wanted to label as a tank game in the tournament for the 1st overall pick. But it is too early for me to do this, but it is clear both teams are not going to make the playoffs. Atlanta may be cursed, but they are clearly more talented than Seattle is. The Seahawks suck and they only won week 1 because Nathanial Hackett is trying to do his best to be a one and done coach. I think that this is going to be the week Kyle Pitts just goes off as Seattle defense is very mediocre. I will take Atlanta here and you know what, I am going to use the Falcons as my superlock this week.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+2) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Spread -2)
Clearly this is the game of the week as it is Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady. I am going to go ahead and say my selection early with this one, Give me the Packers here. With all of Tampa Bay’s injuries I just don’t think they will be able to keep up against the Packers. Especially with the Buccaneers o-line issues and WR concerns especially now Mike Evans is suspended for this game. I don’t understand how the Packers are underdogs for this week. I would not go survivor for the Packers as there are better weeks to pick them along with better options. Spread wise though I will take the points.
My Pick: Green Bay Packers (+2)
Sunday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (Spread +1.5)
Look I know Trey Lance is out for the season but this spread seems a bit too low to me. It is a bit fishy to me. I like the 49ers in this game. Mainly because I think Nathaniel Hackett is a terrible coach. The way this team is being run and the poor time management is just abysmal. The Broncos are in deep trouble which sucks because I was high on Denver this offseason. I know it is week 2, but Hackett is really building himself as a one and done coach. There is a reason why the 49ers kept Jimmy G for this long and I think he will be fine as the starting QB. Give me the 49ers here.
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Monday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Spread -2.5)
This is a very intriguing matchup as I went back and forth when deciding who to pick in this game. I got to say though, Cooper Rush has played very well at quarterback for the Cowboys. He did well against Cincinnati, but one part of Dallas that has been better than I expected is their Defense. Compared to Week 1 Dallas’s defense performed a lot better. They can keep this up, but I really can’t trust a team that is coached by Mike McCarthey. As for the Giants they have performed well the first two weeks, but I want to see how they do against a real team though as the Titans are terrible and the Panthers are poorly coached along with not performing well. I would say Dallas would be their true test, but not really with Dak hurt. I will buy in if they can beat the Packers or Ravens in a few weeks. So far the Giants have done well as Saquon has performed like his old self. The two things that concern me on offense is Daniel Jones has not been great and the whole Kenny Golladay saga is persistent. The Giants got to get rid of Kenny Golladay via an Osweiler Effect trade. They can’t cut him for a few years due to his awful contract, but he is just a liability on this team and in the locker room. As for this game, I am going to pass betting this game, but I will take the points with Dallas.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)