Image Credit: (Daniel Bartel/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Twitter: @nicholasmullick
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 4. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1)
Total: (26-21-1)
I will take this week as an improvement from last week, as I'd rather push a spread then lose it.
Superlock Record (2-1) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2 Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons
Probably my best pick from last week was superlocking the Falcons, but even if I did superlock the Lions I still would have won this week.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 3 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 4. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (Spread -4)
This seems intriguing on paper, but it just feels like a bad spot for both teams. The Bengals offense has not been great and that o-line is super disappointing with all the moves this team has made. Plus the Bengals will likely not have both RB Joe Mixon and WR Tee Higgins on offense which is a problem. On the Dolphins side, Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a back and ankle injury. Many are saying it could be Miami trying to trick the Bengals, but I am not so sure about that. Like I said back injuries are no joke at all even if it is just a strain. If you hurt your back, then it is going to hurt a lot. One other thing is that it was clear Tua was dealing with concussion symptoms and if it were me he should not play. If Tua doesn’t play Teddy Bridgewater is the backup for them and he is a great QB to have behind your starter. OT Terron Armstead and WR Jaylen Waddle also are dealing with injuries as well and might not play. I really don’t know what to do with this game as both teams are hurt. I will take the points with Miami, but this game is a no bet for me.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins (+4)
Update: Well I am now 0-1 to begin the week as the Cincinnati Bengals won this game 27-15.
International Game
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (Spread +3)
I really love it when an international game is being played as that means I can wake up early on Sunday Morning and watch the game, while I eat Breakfast. Look I get it is a primetime game and I know Kirk Cousins sucks at this time. But I really like the Minnesota Vikings in this game. It is crazy to me how Jameis is still the starting QB as he has like 4 fractures in his back. If he starts then this team is going to struggle. As of now it looks like Jameis will play, but that is a mistake. Who knows if both Alvin Kamara or Dalvin Cook play this game, but I just can’t go with the Saints if an injured Jameis is the QB. So I will take the Vikings in this game and I am going to bet it unless in the next few days Jameis is ruled out. If Dalton is the QB I am going to pass betting on it.
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Sunday Football (1:00 PM)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Spread +3.5)
This is a very important game for both teams as this division is terrible and a win here will help tiebreaker wise. The Titans and Colts are two disappointing teams so far in the season. I got to say, both teams are very similar. Both dealing with injuries, have a strong run game, and have two QB’s on the decline. Look I know the Colts beat the Chiefs, but they were trying to give this game away to them and the Chiefs failed to capitalize. Plus Matt Ryan, while he looked better last week, still looks like his shoulder is cooked when throwing the football. I got to ask, does anybody know what is going on with LB Shaquille “Darius’’ Leonard injury? It seems every week there is hype that he will be ready to play and for some reason he just does not. I just don’t know about this game, but I just think Tennessee will take care of business.
My Pick: Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (Spread -3)
Did you know that, According to DVOA the Washington Commanders are the worst team in football right now and it is hard not to see why. Carson Wentz stinks and his o-line has been terrible too. Dallas' d-line is going to cause havoc on this offense. It is a shame, because the Commanders have weapons including Terry McLaurian, Logan Thomas, and Antonio Gibson. I got to say, Jahan Dotson has performed well so far this season. The Commanders defense desperately needs Chase Young back as there pass rush has been lost without him. Do I trust Dallas, no not with Mike McCarthey as head coach. One thing I have to ask Dallas is why are they using Elliot more than Pollard? I have been a pro Ezekiel Elliot guy myself, but he is not the guy he was years ago. But I can’t trust the Commanders as a whole with Wentz at QB. How long until we see Sam Howell or Taylor Henicke starting at QB this season? I say that because I don’t see Wentz starting the entire season. So I will take Dallas in this game and not look back.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (Spread -4.5)
I like this game a lot spread wise and I got to be honest, this was a game considered in super lock and in my survivor article being the best option. I really like the Detroit Lions here and I think they win this game by double digit points. Seattle is super overrated and their defense is horrendous especially with their run game. D'Andre Swift won’t play, but Jamaal Williams is a must start in fantasy as he is going to run all over the Seahawks defense. The Lions offense is very underrated and Jared Goff has performed well so far this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown may be hurt, but he should be ready to play this game. Seattle’s offense is decent, but Detroit's defense is better. I got to say CB Jeff Okudah has performed well so far this seasonIt is amazing to see how well he has played healthy and having competent coaching. Give me Detroit here and this to me is a game I am betting.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (-4.5)
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (Spread +1.5)
This is a very underrated matchup for this week. Atlanta may be tanking, but they are a bit better than I expected. The Falcons really have something in Drake London as he is a player of the future if he continues to develop well. The Falcons defense is horrendous though and I think Cleveland is going to take care of business and beat Atlanta here. Cleveland's running game is very good and Jacoby Brisett has been performing very well at QB. No word yet on if Myles Garrett will play this week, but thank god he is okay after his car accident. It was very scary when I heard about the news he got in an accident trying to avoid hitting an animal. I saw photos of the car wreck, he is very lucky to be alive.
My Pick: Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (Spread +3)
In my opinion this is the game of the week. I am not even looking at the Over/Under, but I am going to bet the over on it. Especially, as I see this being a highly scored game as both teams' secondaries are beaten up. Both teams are really hyped to win this one as this could be for the number 1 seed tiebreaker. I could see this as a potential AFC Championship matchup as well. I am going to go with the Buffalo Bills as they definitely want to answer after the disappointing Dolphins game. I believe in the Bills and I expect a big performance with the Bills here.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills (-3)
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (Spread -3)
I really want to make this a tank game in the tournament for the 1st overall pick, but I decided to hold off as it is too early and the Giants may be a better team than expected. I really don’t understand how the Bears have won two games this season as that team is terrible. The Bears are mismanaging QB Justin Fields and they won those games. I expect Saqoun Barkley to have a big game as the run defense for the Bears is terrible. The Giants run defense is terrible as well, but I doubt David Mongomery plays this week with his knee injury. Khalil Herbert should be the guy to start in Chicago via fantasy. In regards to this game I am leaning towards taking the New York Giants, but I will not be betting on this game.
My Pick: New York Giants (-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (Spread -6.5)
I got to say the Jacksonville Jaguars have performed very well the first few games of the season. It is amazing what they look like when they don’t have an incompetent coach who is not an egomaniac or treats his staff/players like trash. Then again I'm pretty sure a high school coach would do better than Urban Meyer did as the head coach of the Jaguars. But the Jaguars now are a legit team and their defense is pretty good. Not Sacksonville level great yet, but it is up there. The offense has been performing well so far, this is a big test facing the Eagles who are a legit team this year. Look I criticized the Jalen Hurts pick when it came out, but he has proved the doubters wrong so far and has performed well. Howie Roseman the Eagles GM is a genius (Excluding the idiotic Jalen Reagor pick) for getting Hurts when he did. It was ballsy and so far it has done him wonders.I think this is too many points for me not to take the Jags and I think this game will be closer. I say Jags cover, but Eagles win. Oh and one other thing, I don’t understand why this is a top choice in survivor picking the Eagles.You can use the Eagles later in the season as there are better choices.
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (Spread +4.5)
I got to say out of all teams that had the worst week 3 is the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers can’t avoid getting rid of the Injury bug that they have seemingly have had for so many years. CB J.C. Jackson, their prize free agent during the offseason, is still hurt and who knows when he will come back. QB Justin Herbert has his rib issue and it still looks like he is not 100% yet. The Chargers lost their blindside tackle Rashawn Slater Jr. for the season as he Tore his Biceps. That is a tremendous loss as Slater is arguably one of if not a Top 5/10 tackle in the NFL. WR Keenan Allen is still dealing with a hamstring problem and now THE/EDGE Joey Bosa is on IR due to his groin injury. The injuries are just rampant for the Chargers and they are in shambles. One other thing about the Chargers that I really am not so sure about, is if Brandon Staley is the guy as the head coach. I am not confident in him as the coach at all and I can’t rule out the Chargers getting rid of Staley when the season is over. As for this week, yes I know that this is the Texans, but with the insane amount of injuries the Chargers have on their team, it is hard for me not to take the Texans. In fact the Houston Texans are going to be my superlock for this week.
My Pick: Houston Texans (+4.5) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (Spread -3.5)
Now this is a game that I have waited many weeks to bet. Give me the New York Jets here as I think the Steelers are not a good team. Yes the Steelers had extra time to prepare for this game, but this is the Steelers and this would be a classic game where they would play down to competition. The Steelers are likely not going to have S Minkah Fitzpatrick or CB Ahkello Witherspoon in this game and their secondary is going to struggle. Plus there is no TJ Watt as well and this defense is not the same without him. This offense is not good and Mitchell Trubisky is horrible at QB. The Steelers have an incompetent offensive coordinator in Matt Canada. I am close to doing what I did last year and keep questioning the Steelers. This time I will ask Why is Matt Canada still the offensive coordinator for the Steelers? He is horrendous and the Jets are getting Zach Wilson back at QB. Give me the Jets and if it was not for the Chargers/Texans game, the Jets would have been my superlock.
My Pick: New York Jets (+3.5)
Sunday Football (4:05 PM)
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (Spread -2) I have to admit the 4:00 games are really terrible and I would not blame a lot of fans for skipping these games. So first up is Arizona vs Carolina and the immediate thought seeing this game is Yuck. Both teams look horrendous and I honestly don’t know which team is worse. You know, I am not going long with this game. I'd rather have Kyler Murray at QB than Baker Mayfield, so I will take the points with Arizona. You would be crazy to even want to bet on this game.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+2)
Sunday Football (4:25 PM)
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Spread -2.5)
I hate these 4:00 games, but out of the bunch this is probably going to be the most competitive. Mainly because both teams coming in were very overrated and have horrendous head coaches. However I got to say, the Broncos defense is very good and is carrying the Broncos to two games. The Raiders are just a mess here and I don’t understand why they are favored at all. I will take the points with the Broncos, but this is another no bet.
My Pick: Denver Broncos (+2.5)
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (Spread -10)
Ok I am truly convinced that the Patriots are no longer a threat this season. Now to make it worse Mac Jones is hurt and while he is day to day I doubt that he plays. So it will be Brian Hoyer that will be starting for the Patriots. I do wonder if it will be that much of a downgrade at QB as Jones has not been great this season. Keep in mind the offense is being run by two terrible coaches in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Am I in the minority saying that I think Green Bay is overrated? I don’t think that they are terrible as that would be just false, but Green Bay has not really been fantastic this season. They were terrible against Minnesota and were very sloppy against Tampa Bay. Excluding Chicago, which is basically a bye week for Aaron Rodgers now they have not been a fantastic team. Also Green Bay’s defense is very mediocre, especially their run defense. Also CB Jaire Alexander is banged up as well, but should not cause too much problem as the Patriots receivers are not that great. I still think Green Bay wins, but I have to take the points in New England.
My Pick: New England Patriots (+10)
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Spread +2)
Ok I will start off by saying that my condolences go out to those affected by Hurricane Ian as at the time I am writing this article the Hurricane just hit Florida. No word yet if this game will still be played in Tampa Bay, but if it has to be relocated the plan is for it to be moved to Minnesota. It is none of my business to predict weather that will happen or not as I am not a weatherman. But what I can predict is who I think will win this game via the spread..
First, I am shocked that this spread is not off or is a pick’em knowing the events going on in Florida. The Buccaneers still have an insane amount of injuries on their squad and with this Hurricane, I can easily see the team lose focus as well. The Chiefs legit blew last week against the Indianapolis Colts as the Colts were trying to lose that game and the Chiefs blew it. You know who to me so far has been disappointing for the Chiefs WR Skyy Moore. I get he is a rookie and is going to take time to develop, but he has not had a great beginning to the season. I am unsure about this game, but I will take the Chiefs as they are healthier and probably more focused in this game.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-2)
Monday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Spread -2)
This one is an easy one for me to pick, give me the Los Angeles Rams. The 49ers just look sloppy with the injuries that team has gone through. Plus with Trent Williams out for a bit they are a completely different offense and I think this is a bad spot with the 49ers. Yes the Rams have their issues on the o-line as well, but they should take care of business against the 49ers. There is no reason why the Rams should be underdogs in this game so I will take the points. I thought about superlocking the Rams, but I decided not to as the Texans were a better choice.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+2)