Image Credit: (Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 4. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record
Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2)
My worst week of the year so far, but pushing two of these games was cool in my book
Superlock Record (2-2) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans
I should have made the Jets my superlock and yet again the Texans struggled. The one time I trust the Texans and they yet again disappoint. Remind me why Jack Easterby is still a part of that organization again?
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 4 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 5. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Where to begin with this game. Two teams who have disappointed so far into the season. I want to start with the Denver Broncos. You know before the season even began I had the Broncos going in second place and even debated having them win the AFC West. Boy have I been wrong. I got to say Denver may have the worst head coach in a division that has Brandon Staley and Josh McDaniels as head coaches. Nathaniel Hackett is so bad as a head coach that I really believe that he will be one and done at the end of this season. Hackett has done a terrible job with the awful play calling, terrible time management, and he is way over his head as the head coach. Russell Wilson looked off, maybe it is due to his shoulder injury that he has or due to not getting on the same page with Hackett. The injury bug got worse for Denver as RB Javonte Williams is done for the year due to his knee injury and Melvin Gordan can’t stop fumbling the ball or stay healthy. The only thing holding up the Broncos team is their defense, even with an injured Randy Gregory. Luckily they are home in this game and that is a plus.
As for the Indianapolis Colts, no word yet on if RB Jonathan Taylor will be playing for the Colts as he is dealing with an ankle injury. I do know that LB Shaquille “Darius” Leonard along with DE/EDGE TyQuan Lewis will not play. This defense is awful and I don’t know what is worse, the pass rush or secondary. As a whole Indianapolis is horrible and even DVOA agrees as they are the worst team statistically. It is hard not to see why and look, I keep saying this but Matt Ryan is done at QB. I would not be shocked if Indianapolis even benches Matt Ryan in one point this season and has either Nick Foles or Sam Ellingher start a game. This team is in deep trouble and yes I know the Colts always struggle in September, but as a whole the Colts just look done.
I asked this question when doing the AFC South War Room podcast and I keep thinking about it, If the Colts don’t make the playoffs this season, will Frank Reich be out of a job as the head coach? I can really see that happening, I would not do it as I think Reich is a good coach, but I can’t rule it out as a possibility.
However, I will spread wise take the Denver Broncos and you know what I will be risky as Denver would have been my survivor pick for this week..
My Pick: Denver Broncos (-3.5)
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) *In London, England*
Like I said I love London games as they are played early in the morning. If this was two weeks ago I would have been hyped to see this game. However with Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor being hurt, my hype for the game went down. However, Green Bay may be worse than I thought. The Packers almost lost to a team with two hack’s coaching on the offensive side of the ball and had their third string quarterback on the field. Bailey Zappe was mainly mediocre too for New England in that game and they almost lost. When watching that game back, I got to say the Packers run defense is awful. However I don’t know who the Giants QB is, I will go with the Packers here.
My Pick: Green Bay Packers (-8.5)
Sunday Football (1:00 PM)
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3)
Now this is a very interesting game here. I got to say Miami really frustrates me not because of me being a Jets fan, but how they failed Tua Tagovailoa. They have impressed me this season, and I don’t think Teddy Bridgewater is a terrible option to have at QB when he is healthy. I really am interested to see how Tyreek Hill does against Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner as Gardner has been a player and they may really have something in him. In regards with the Jets although they did win, it was against the Steelers who love playing down to competition. Also the Jets were terrible in the first 3 quarters of that game. If the Steelers had a competent offensive coordinator the Jets would have lost. I will take the Dolphins here, but I will not bet this game.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins (-3)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
You know on paper many feel that this is an easy game, but I really don’t know what to think of the Vikings. I think losing Lewis Cine for the season is a big loss for their secondary, but their defense is mediocre. The offense has done well as of now. All I know is that Chicago is a terrible team that should only have 1 win this season. I have no idea what Chicago is doing with handling Justin Fields. Is he that bad or the coaching staff just does not like him? I have no interest in betting on this game, but I think the Vikings win the game. However I am taking the points with the Chicago Bears.
My Pick: Chicago Bears (+7)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14)
This one is an easier game to pick, give me Buffalo. I think the Steelers are a terrible team and I believe that this game is a mismatch. The Steelers maybe start Pickett this week, but Matt Canada is still the offensive coordinator of the team. Mainly due to his contract does not expire until probably the end of the season and this organization does not fire coaches. I really hate Pickett starting this game and the next few games as it is a brutal few weeks. Pittsburgh does not have TJ Watt or Minkah Fitzpatrick on this defense and they are easily the best players on that defense. Buffalo maybe beaten up on secondary, but the Bills should take care of business and dominate the Steelers here.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills (-14)
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-3)
Ok how is Detroit the underdogs in this game? Look I get the Lions defense is terrible, and the patriots performed well against the Packers. However, the Patriots are going to likely start Bailey Zappe who was very mediocre in that Packers game. He was not great or embarrassing, just mediocre, plus I still can’t trust a new england offense run by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, i’m sorry. Also the Patriots are also still dealing with injuries in the secondary on defense. Give me Detroit here and if it was not for one game this week, the Lions would have been my superlock.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+3)
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
I am shocked that this spread is not 2 or 1 points here. Especially with the Seahawks offense performing well, but I got to say compared to New Orleans, I think that there better. New Orleans are not good and now add Michael Thomas’s name to the injury report as it looks like he and Jameis Winston will not play in this game. However the Saints even with Andy Dalton as the QB for the Saints they should be fine as Seattle’s defense is awful. I think it is a close game, but its too many points give me the Seahawks.
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+5.5)
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (+2.5)
Oh dear this game, I can already tell out of all the games going on in the afternoon, this is going to be one of the least viewed games excluding the markets in Tennessee and Washington. I honestly could care less about this game. I am contemplating taping this game and watch it at a later date in my free time. Washington legit has no home field advantage and they play in probably the worst stadium in the NFL. I will go quick here, I am just blindly taking the points with Washington. This is a no bet for me and you know what it should be for everybody.
My Pick: Washington Commanders (+2.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)
This is an interesting spread here with the Buccaneers as I'm guessing Vegas believes that they believe the Buccaneers will be healthier and Cordarrelle Patterson is out for a bit with Atlanta. I got to be real, 9 points seems like a bit much, but I am not buying the bait as I am taking Tampa here as I think they dominate Atlanta. Yes I know so far Atlanta is undefeated spread wise, but I think the Buccaneers will dominate defensively. I think with Godwin likely back as well Brady is going to throw a ton of touchdowns for Tampa. Brady maybe hurt, but he should be ready to go this week. Atlanta may be solid so far, but this game is a mismatch so I will take the Buccaneers here.
My Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+3)
Yuck. This game was a very weird one when I first saw it. Then diving in the spread I am a bit perplexed in where to go here. I doubt the Browns will have there pass rush back, especially Clowney and Garret as I doubt they play next week. I really can’t trust the Browns for the time being and the same can be said with the Chargers. I don’t think Staley is the guy at head coach for the Chargers as he has made a ton of questionable coaching decisions. I also don’t like the Chargers, a west coast team traveling to Cleveland. Beating Houston to me proves nothing as well for the Chargers. When in doubt take the points, but I will pass betting this game here.
My Pick: Cleveland Browns (+3)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
I am glad the Jaguars are performing well so far as they are my second favorite team in the NFL. However, it is a bit too early for the Jaguars to be 7 point favorites. Look I get it is the Texans they are facing and they lost to a beaten up Chargers team, but it is a divisional game and the Texans will play this close. Also the Jaguars are the same team that lost to the Commanders week 1. I will take the points with the Texans here, but Jacksonville should win this game.
My Pick: Houston Texans (+7)
Sunday Football (4:05 PM)
Ok before I get in the afternoon games, I have to say I hate that there is 9 1:00 games and like 3 4:00 games this week. They did it last week, but I really am not a fan of it at all.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
You know what is crazy with the Panthers, their o-line has performed well this season and Baker has not been pressured much. However It shows more about what the Panthers think of Baker. zI have been a Pro Baker guy and wanted him to do well as he got screwed over in Cleveland, but he has been terrible for Carolina. It would not shock me if the Panthers bench him at any point this season. Like I said it is no longer an if, but when Matt Rhule is out of a job at this point. I don’t see how he coaches this team next season. The 49ers are not a terrible team and took care of business against the Los Angeles Rams. You could say going to the west coast to east coast is an issue for the 49ers, but I just think they're overall better. I will take the 49ers here.
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Sunday Football (4:25 PM)
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)
I am shocked that this is not at double digit points right now as Arizona is a very overrated football team. If the Cardinals did not have Kyler Murray at QB, I don’t think this team would have a win on their record. There defense is mediocre and Philadelphia is just going to dominate the Cardinals. Give me Philadelphia here no question and I am definitely betting this game. Also, remember when talking about the Detroit Lions I said there is one game that I feel more confident in via superlock. Yeah this is it, the Philadelphia Eagles are my Superlock this week.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
Oh come on there is no way the Cowboys should be favorites in this game. I get the Rams looked terrible against the 49ers, but it is a divisional game and both are battling for the Division. I get it because Dallas had done well with Cooper Rush, but they're going to Los Angeles and the Rams offense is still solid despite the o-line issues. I have to say though the Rams really need another Von Miller type pass rusher on their team as he has sorely been missed on defense. Cooper Rush has been great at QB for Dallas, but am I the only one thinking he is going to be the next Brock Oswieler when he gets too much money in free agency? I don’t know but the Rams are getting too many points here and I will gladly take them via the spread.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
Sunday Night Football
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
This is a great game to have Sunday Night as to me, it is the game of the week. This game is important to both teams when it comes to winning the division. It is clear that Pittsburgh will not even be close to winning the division and Cleveland I still don’t think that they are a great team either. The Bengals are a team that really are missing something. I don’t know if it is an offensive issue or defensive issue, maybe both to be honest. The Bengals need another piece on this team. I don;’t think Joe Mixon will have a great game as the Raven’s run defense is good, but their pass defense is really bad, mainly due to injuries. I wonder what will happen with Marcus Peters after he and Harbaugh got into a shouting matchup, but we will see. Baltimore’s offense is still very good and Baltimore is going to have no choice but to pay Lamar in the offseason. This game to me is a no bet, but I will take the Ravens here as I just have a tiny bit more confidence in them.
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Monday Night Football
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Not going long here, the easiest pick for me to make here on Monday Night Football so far this year. Give me the Chiefs here. The Raiders are horrendous and their secondary is easily the worst in the division and probably in the AFC Conference. The only thing the Raiders will do well in this game is run all over the Chiefs defense as they have struggled in the first four weeks. I just can’t trust the Raiders and the Chiefs performed well against the Buccaneers. The Raiders will likely not have Denzel Perryman who is a big part of this defense. The Chiefs should take care of business here. I would not take the Chiefs in survivor as it is Monday Night and they have plenty of weeks to be utilized.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-7)