Image Credit: (Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Twitter: @nicholasmullick
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 6. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1
Total: (36-40-4)
My worst week of the year so far and it was not a great week, hopefully I will improve this week.
Superlock Record (2-3) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles
Wow, shocked the Eagles did not cover this game, but Arizona. oh I mean Kyler Murray played tough in this matchup. I probably would have lost my superlock either way this week.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 5 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 6. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football
Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears (Spread -1)
If you thought last week was a terrible Thursday Night Football Game we have this game. It may be too early, but I am doing it. Welcome to the 1st Tank Game in the Tournament for the 1st overall pick. Two teams that are battling for one goal to try to get a higher draft pick to help with their rebuild and the main goal for each team is to lose. I got to say I will not be watching this game Thursday Night as I really could care less. I would rather get some extra sleep and watch this game Friday Morning while I eat Breakfast. I am not even going to bet on this game at all, so what I did was I flipped a coin, Heads for Commanders and Tails for Bears. It is heads, so I will take the Commanders.
My Pick: Washington Commanders (+1)
Sunday Football (1:00 PM)
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (Spread +5)
It feels weird seeing the Giants now having a competent coach as I am a firm believer in Brian Daboll right now as their head coach. But while I believe in the coaching staff, I am not so sure about the team as a whole. Look Baltimore’s run defense is not great, but I think the Ravens overall are the better team. No word yet on if Rashod Bateman will be playing in this game for Baltimore. But besides Bateman and Duvernay the Ravens have no depth at wide receiver. Yes I know the Ravens have Demarcus Robinson, but he is a below average/scrub type of player. I will take the Ravens in this game, but I won't bet on this game.
My Pick Baltimore Ravens (-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Spread -2.5)
Ok this is my favorite pick of the day as this is going to be my superlock and I would even consider doing a parlay if you wanted. Give me the Jacksonville Jaguars and I think they smoke the Indianapolis Colts in this game. Indianapolis is easily the worst team in the NFL and I am still shocked they have won 2 games this season. As long as Matt Ryan is the starting QB in Indianapolis I am going to bet against them as like I said his arm is cooked. He looks finished as the QB and I think this is his last year in the NFL. Plus the Colts defense is horrible and is dearly missing LB Shaquille “Darius” Leonard, who I don’t think is playing this week. Give me the Jaguars in this game.
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars *Superlock Pick of the Week*
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (Spread -3)
No word yet on who is starting at QB for the Patriots, but in my opinion I don't think it matters. First off I still don’t think Mac Jones will be 100% this week and I think it will be safe for New England to go Bailey Zappe here. I got to say though I think Zappe is serviceable, but he did not overly impressed me as he faced one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week when he faced the Lions. We will see how he will do against Cleveland’s defense with Myles Garrett likely playing. I got to say though Cleveland defense is horrendous and their defensive coordinator Joe Woods is 100% on the hot seat this season. The Browns do get help at linebacker as they just acquired Deion Jones from the Atlanta Falcons. Luckily for Cleveland, the Patriots will probably play without Damien Harris on offense which is a plus. I got to say as much as the Browns defense has issues, their offense has performed pretty well. Their running game is excellent this season. I know a lot of people love to clown on QB Jacoby Brisett as he has made questionable choices when throwing the ball, but he overall has been performing well for the Browns. However, like I said with the issues on Cleveland’s defense I kind of am leaning towards taking New England here. I will take the points with the Patriots and I might bet this game depending on the updated injury report.
My Pick: New England Patriots (+3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (Spread +8.5)
This is a strange spread as I originally thought that the spread would be double digit points. I can’t see a reason to bet the Steelers at all in this situation. I have to ask, Why is Matt Canada still here as the offensive coordinator? I don’t care if the Steelers don’t fire coaches, he is just horrendous as the offensive coordinator and I may be bold saying this, but I think Fincter was a better offensive coordinator. That guy was only a yes man for Big Ben and was kind of useless as a coordinator, but he called plays way better than Canada has. The o-line tome has been very disappointing as they have not performed well at all this season. This Steelers defense is awful and I find it funny that it is the most expensive defense in football. It is clearly not the same without T.J. Watt on this team or S Minkah Fitzpatrick. Yes I know Fitzpatrick played last week, but he clearly shouldn’t have played as he still performed like he was banged up. I will take Tampa Bay here and I will bet on this game.
My Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (Spread +2)
I really don’t know what to think of this game as both teams are very mysterious. The Bengals are just underachieving this year and should be better than what they are right now. Also, am I in the minority saying that I don't know which team has the advantage of coaching in this matchup. I mean yes Zac Taylor did get this team to the superbowl, but some coaching decisions he has made have been very strange. You all know from many articles in the past that I had concerns with Dennis Allen as the coach. I doubt Jameis Winston plays for the Saints this week and honestly, I don’t think he plays until November as back injuries are no joke. This could be a Dalton revenge spot, but the Saints will likely be without Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave, and Michael Thomas. I am going to take the Bengals here, but I will not be betting on this game.
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-2)
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (Spread -7)
This is a very big game for both teams in my opinion. Both teams need this game as the Packers need to show that they are still a threat and the Jets need to show that they are the real deal. As a Jets fan I like the way that they are performing, but let's be real the Jets got lucky for the games they won. In the Cleveland game they won because Joe Woods made a bad call, The Dolphins had a 3rd string QB, and Pittsburgh as always pulled a Mike Tomlin by playing down to competition against the Jets. There is a lot of exciting youth on the Jets, but this is there true test. If this game is close or they win, then the Jets are really legit.
As for Green Bay I have to ask, Is Aaron Rodgers hurt? While watching that Giants game it looked like Aaron Rodgers was favoring his throwing shoulder and his throws were just off. I am not 100%, but I wonder if Aaron Rodgers is hurt. I might be bold saying this, but I think Matt LaFleur is one of the most overrated coaches in the NFL today. I don’t think he is a bad coach as that would be a dumb thing to say, but he is not a fantastic coach. I do find it interesting that LaFleur is 10-0 against the spread after a loss, though. However the Packers defense is not great at all as there have been many moments where they have struggled. You know who has not been performing well this season, LB Quay Walker. I know he is a rookie and he is going to take time to develop, but he has looked lost so far this season. I mean I really think it is too many points for Green Bay to be favorites here. I think the Packers win this game, but I will take the Points with the Jets
My Pick: New York Jets (+7)
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (Spread +5.5)
Fun Fact the Atlanta Falcons are the only undefeated team spread wise in the league. So if you picked Atlanta every week, then you won 5 game games against the spread. I mean I got to say this spread feels strange to me, especially as the Falcons traded their longtime linebacker Deion Jones to the Cleveland Browns. I got to say the Falcons are a lot better than what many thought. Except for the utilization of TE Kyle Pitts and I have no clue what is going on with him, I am intrigued in what head coach Arthur Smith is doing and he has done a solid coaching job with the Falcons. On paper the 49ers are clearly the better team, but they have a large amount of injuries that they are dealing with both on offense and defense. I am leaning towards the Falcons here in this spot. Might be a bit risky, but this game should be close and I am taking the points.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (Spread +3)
I am guessing that the Dolphins are going to be starting Skylar Thompson at QB as I doubt Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater are active in this matchup. I guess that answer will be revealed in a few days, but I really am not sure about this game. The Dolphins may be without any info at QB and their defense is banged up too. The Vikings to me are kind of mediocre and are an up and down team to me. This was a tough game to choose and I am passing on betting it. I will take the Vikings at this spot, but I am not confident.
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Sunday Football (4:05 PM)
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (Spread -10.5)
I am not going to go long here with this game. The Panthers may have fired their head coach and defensive coordinator, but there is no way the Rams should be 10.5 point favorites. I will take the Panthers in this game spread wise, but the Los Angeles Rams will win this game. In fetch the Rams would have been my survivor pick for this week if I was still alive in the survivor pool.
My Pick: Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
I will be honest, if Arizona does not have Kyler Murray at QB right now the Cardinals may honestly be the worst team in football. Murray is really carrying this team as the entire team is really bad. Especially on defense as According to DVOA the Cardinals have the 26th worst defense in the league. However the Seahawks defense is the 31st worst defense according to DVOA as well and this should be a nice rebounding spot for Arizona. I will take them in this game, but I probably won’t bet on the game due to Seattle’s offense being red hot right now. Also this game I heard may even get delayed due to the MLB playoffs, so it could start at around 5:30 ish.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
Sunday Football (4:25 PM)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (Spread +2.5)
This is easily the game of the week and it is not even close. This may be the AFC Championship game in January. Look I am very high with the Bills this season, but I really like the Chiefs in this spot. Not only because the Cheifs are home, but with how banged up the Bills secondary is I think Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is going to torch the Bills secondary. Plus I think if the Chiefs blitz Mahomes and give pressure to Allen that he will struggle to adapt to pressure. I will take the points with the Chiefs, but either or this should be a fun game to watch.
My Game: Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)
Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (Spread -4.5)
Now this is a proper primetime spot for the Cowboys to play on. No word on if Dak will start at QB, but I think Cooper Rush has to start until he shows signs of struggle. Imagine if the Cowboys had a competent coach, they would probably be undefeated. I just think the Eagles are overall the better team and they are the home team in this matchup. I don’t have a strong lean though, so I will just take Philadelphia to win and cover the spread of this game.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers (Spread -5)
Yuck, this is the Monday Night Football game for this week. This is a matchup where both head coaches are likely going to be out of a job at the end of the year.
When looking at last week for the Broncos it proved to me two things. The 1st is that Russell Wilson is either cooked or injured badly with his shoulder injury. Turns out both maybe the case as Wilson had to get an injection in his shoulder. Second is that Nathanial Hackett needs to be fired. I don’t care if it is his 1st season and he has only coached 5 games as the head coach, Hackett is way over his head in this role. He has made horrendous decisions in Denver and coasted multiple games in Denver. What made me fuming was that the Broncos had like 50 seconds left to go and they decided to pass at the end of the 4th quarter where he could have run the clock out. It is a joke and he should have been fired the moment on the sidelines. At least Denver has a lot of time to prepare for this game, so there is no excuse that this game will be close. If they look horrendous one more time then.
The Chargers won last week against Cleveland and they were trying to give this game away. Despite winning the game and Justin Herbert being a very talented player, they’re winning despite coaching. I had my concerns about Staley as the coach, but last week made me lean towards the Chargers having a horrendous coach. I got to say when its 4th & 2 in the 4th quarter with 2 minutes left to go, you're up by 2 points along with the ball being on your side of the field. Why are you going for it? The Browns need 3 points and the fact you are going for it makes 0 sense. Punt the ball and make it harder for Cleveland to get in field goal range. The Chargers are just lucky that Cleveland missed that field goal.
As for this game, yeah you would be crazy to want to touch this game unless you want to be risky and choose the Chargers in survivor. I think the Chargers win the game, but I will take the points with Denver.
My Pick: Denver Broncos (+5)