Image Credit: (Kim Klement/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Twitter: @nicholasmullick
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 6. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record
Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6)
Total: (44-46-4)
I did a lot better than I did last week. Hopefully I can keep it up.
Superlock Record (2-4) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars
That absolutely backfired, I thought the Jaguars were going to crush the Colts. It did not pan out at all.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 6 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 7. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
Finally an intriguing Thursday Night Football game that I don’t have to tape and watch Friday Morning. I got to say Kliff Kingsbury is on the hot seat as the Cardinals are poorly coached. I got to say the Saints have a ton of players either not playing or playing hurt. The Saints are in deep trouble too as they really blow opportunities to win games. Worse for worse if the Saints struggle they can tank and get a high draft pick. Oh Wait, they can’t as their 1st round pick is Philadelphia Eagles property due to the trade up in the 2022 NFL Draft. Yeah that blows. As for this game I am leaning towards Arizona due to the injuries, but I can’t trust them to bet the game. I really can’t and that is with not knowing who the Saints starting QB is.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Sunday Football (1:00 PM)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+11)
I like this game a lot and I will be real here, Tampa Bay is my superlock and they would have been my survivor pick if I was still alive. Carolina is a bad team that has to start P.J. Walker as the QB. Plus with the Panthers already trading players like Robbie Anderson, this could get worse. If Walker gets hurt by the way, guess who the backup QB is? Jacob Eason. Yeah remember him the darkhorse option to start for Seattle/Indianapolis. Yeah this game to me feels like a mismatch, Tampa should rebound here. I will take the Buccaneers here and if Tampa loses this game, then they need to purge big pieces and start their rebuild. This team has to be better and like I said Todd Bowles is a terrible head coach and they should have promoted Byron Leftwich as the head coach.
My Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Falcons are still undefeated spread wise and last week I really did bet that game in real life and it worked out. When I first saw the spread of this game I immediately thought that this was too many points. I mean I think the Bengals are the better team on paper, but Atlanta is a lot better than what I originally thought. If Tampa Bay continues to struggle and the Falcons keep playing well, there is a possibility they may win this division. Atlanta's defense maynot be great, but The Bengals o-line is still a mess. La’el Collins has been a complete liability on this team and the Bengals clearly regret signing him to a contract this offseason. I think Cincinnati is going to win this game, but I am going to hope that the Spread Streak lives and I will take the Falcons here.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+6.5)
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
No word yet on who is starting for Dallas, but it looks like Dak is back starting for Dallas. If there was one team that needed a bye week it was the Detroit Lions as they needed to get healed up as almost half the team was hurt. I think this is way too many points for me to take Dallas, i know they have done well with Cooper Rush, but a healthy Lions team scares me as they play close games. Yes I know the Lions defense is probably the worst in football, but Detroit offense is so good when healthy that they will keep this close. I still say Dallas wins by like 2 maybe 3, but by 7 is just too much, I will take the Lions.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+7)
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
This line is very strange as the Jags lost to Indianapolis, one of the worst teams in the NFL and the Giants are on a hot streak. This spread just seems very fishy to me and I just can’t point to where. Even though the Giants have been great and are well coached, I really don’t think that they are a fantastic team. Just look at the teams they beat excluding Baltimore (Who are turning into the Falcons), they beat the Bears (Terrible), Panthers (Terrible), Titans (Mediocre), and Packers (Overrated team/Injured Rodgers). They have not faced great competition, and while I don’t know what to think of the Jags I am torn on this team. I got a saying when in doubt take the points, so that is what I will do with the Giants.
My Pick: New York Giants (+3)
Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders (+4.5)
Let's just start this off with talking about the Packers. I think they got exposed last week and this team is a lot worse than what I thought. I think it is clear Aaron Rodgers is hurt. Just watching him play last week his injury is a lot worse than what many thought. Go back and just look at the way he grips and throws the football, it just is not the Aaron Rodgers that we usually see.
I got to say,I really think Matt LaFluer is an overrated coach. The Packers have really looked unprepared every game this season. LaFluer also has to take over play calling from Aaron Rodgers as the play calling makes no sense. What in the world is going on with the running game as they are not utilizing the running game. Aaron Jones has really only had 2 great games and is disappointing fantasy wise. There defense has been solid, but they are not as good as they should be
With Wentz now being out for a few weeks due to an injury, it looks like Taylor Heinicke is starting this game for the Commanders. To be honest, Heinicke is an upgrade over Wentz. Carson Wentz I have long given up on him since Week 18 last season when he was a Colt. After seeing Wentz as the starting QB for 6 weeks as a Commander, he is done. I mean it is insane to see how much he has fallen from being one of the best QBs in the league with the Eagles, to what he is now with the Commanders is just depressing. Heinicke is an upgrade and makes the Commanders better, but their defense has been really disappointing this season. Ron Rivera to me is on the hot seat as well as the head coach of the Commanders and if he does not win this game, then his seat is getting hotter. This is a great spot for the Commanders here and I will even take them spread wise.
My Pick: Washington Commanders (+4.5)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (- 6.5)
After watching last week with the Ravens performance, I think it is clear that the Baltimore Ravens are turning into the Atlanta Falcons. They blew yet another lead this season and I got to say offensive coordinator Greg Roman and head coach John Harbaugh’s jobs are not safe right now. They better wake up now as there are no excuses anymore. I think Cleveland is a terrible team as well and if Baltimore struggles this week, then it is panic time. Especially with how terrible Cleveland’s defense is. It might be me, but Lamar Jackson needs to be more consistent as some of his throws last game were just off. I think that now 6.5 points are too much for the Ravens to be favorites. I will take the points with Cleveland, but Baltimore will likely win the game. This game to me is a no bet for me.
My Pick: Cleveland Browns (+6.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Even though 6 weeks of football have been played, I really don’t know what to think of the Titans. On one moment they have flashes of brilliance, and other moments they look horrendous. I really am going back on the mediocre word to use on this team like I did when they went 9-7 multiple times. Last week the Colts won, but I am not fooled as Indianapolis is terrible, give me the Titans. Especially as the Titans coming off a bye week, fully rested, and at home. Take my money, I may even bet this game. The Colts should have lost last week, but the Jags defense just collapsed.
My Pick: Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Sunday Football (4:05 PM)
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders (-7)
I will be quick here as this is not a hard one. The Raiders will win the game, but it is too many points, give me the Houston Texans. I still think the Raiders are a bit of a mess and the Texans play games very close. I definitely think the Texans are more motivated with Easterby’s departure. I got to say, I still can’t believe the Texans finally did it and got rid of Jack Easterby. That was a move they should have made many years ago
My Pick: Houston Texans (+7)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1)
This is a weird spread that the Broncos are the favorites here. Especially as the Broncos have an incopetent head coach who is likely one and done after this season. Now that Matt Rhule is gone, Nathaniel Hackett might be the worst coach in the NFL right now. I mean to me it is not even close and I would be shocked if he is still employed as the Broncos head coach next season. No word on Russell Wilson's status as he is hurt, but if I am Denver I would 100% start Brett Rypien in this game. I have no clue what is going on with Melvin Gordon as well, I just think the Jets are the better team. However the Broncos defense terrifies me as that is what is holding this team together. If this game was in Metlife it would have been my superlock, but since it is in Denver, I decided not too. I will take the Jets spread wise in this game.
My Pick: New York Jets (+1)
Sunday Football (4:25 PM)
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)
This to me is the game of the week. I am very intrigued with how the 49ers will respond as the Falcons defeated them in which I was not surprised as I saw this as a trap game. I got to say the Chiefs really are missing a deep threat for Patrick Mahomes to throw too, but it looks like they have not missed a step. They played hard against the Buffalo Bills. I do think the 49ers are still beaten up and I think the Chiefs are the safer spot here. Plus I think the 49ers offense is not that great and has issues. I am not going to bet on this game, but I will go safe here and take the Chiefs.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)
This spread opened up at 6.5 and I am glad it dropped to 5 as I really like the Seahawks here. Seattle are a lot better than what I thought they were and I just can’t trust the Chargers. Especially with Brandon Staley as the Head Coach and I keep saying this, but the Chargers need a new head coach as Staley is definitely up there as a bad coach. Also it is a big loss that Dustin Hopkins there kicker is going to be out a few weeks. I am taking Seattle here, but I am passing on betting the game.
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+5)
Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7)
I really hate that this game is a Sunday Night Football game. Am I the only one that thinks this? The Steelers may have beaten the Bucs, but the Bucs decided to copy the Mike Tomlin tapes of playing down to competition. Pittsburgh is still beaten up on defense and without TJ Watt or Minkah Fitzpatrick being healthy the defense is a mess. Also no word who is starting for the Steelers I bet it is going to be Mitchell Trubisky. What happened to Najee Harris as he just has not looked right at all this season? Maybe its due to the Steelers disappointing o-line, but I have no idea. I think Tua is going to play, but I am not that confident in it. Overall Miami is the better team and I can’t trust the Steelers with Trubisky as the QB. I will take the Dolphins.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins (-7)
Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-8)
When I saw this game, I legit sighed because this is another game that I hate being on primetime. I will be honest, Bailey Zappe may have performed well, but let's be real he is facing bad defenses. This is way too many points for me to trust a Matt Patricia/Joe Judge led offense, and plus the Bears have extra time to prepare as they remember they played last Thursday night. I think the Bears are terrible and they might lose this game close. I really wonder if Justin Fields will be the guy in Chicago not because of the way they built around him, but man Fields is just making horrendous throws this season, especially against a bad Commanders team last year whose defense is disappointing. I will take the points, but I am not betting this game.
My Pick: Chicago Bears (+8)