Image Credit: (Christopher Hanewinckel/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Twitter: @nicholasmullick
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 7. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6) Week 7 (9-5)
Total: (53-51-4)
I won more than last week. That's a plus and Hopefully I can keep this up.
Superlock Record (2-5) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What a disgraceful performance by the Buccaneers, their offense is an absolute dumpster fire and their defense needs to wake up too. Also Tampa is sorely missing Bruce Arians at head coach as Todd Bowles is a big downgrade.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 7 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 8. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)
If there was one team that got heavily exposed last week it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I mean they losing to Pittsburgh was eye opening, but the fact Tampa lost to a Carolina Panthers team starting a 3rd string QB, just traded two offensive starters, and having an interim head coach is concerning. I said that I had my concerns with the Bucs promoting Todd Bowles as the head coach and it looks like my concerns are coming true as the Buccaneers have looked unprepared last week. Coaching is a big concern with Tampa Bay and ther Bucs offense really needs help. Many may disagree with me here, but I don’t think Brady is the problem on offense, I think it is how bad the Bucs o-line is due to injuries. The running game has also not helped either. Even Tampa’s defense has not looked great as well. Maybe when they get healthy they will perform better, but it is definitely panic time in Tampa Bay.
Even in Baltimore I would kind of panic as they have really looked like a suspect team lately. They have played games close where they should not have and look at that Cleveland game last week. Baltimore was trying to give the Browns a victory in that game. I will admit I was high on Baltimore’s defense, but the Ravens defense has really disappointed me this season as they have struggled. However this seems like a game where Baltimore will look better and gain confidence in. This spread seems fair, I am leaning towards the Ravens this week especially with how small this spread is. I am making a rule for Baltmiore this season: if they are the favorites and the spread is over 3 points, bet the underdog.
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-1.5)
Sunday Football (10:00 AM)
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars *In London, England* (-3)
Am I the only one that forgot that there was another London game this season? While going through Week 8 and seeing this game I was surprised it was at 10am, then I realized that the game was in London. I got to say, If the Jaguars lose this game, then there are some big problems as the Broncos are horrendous. Especially in how bad this offense is, my goodness Russell Wilson may not have played, but Brett Rypein did not help anything either. The only reason why the Broncos did not get blown out against the Jets is because Denver’s defense is a Top 10, maybe Top 5 defense. Denver needs to fire Nathaniel Hackett as the head coach as he is a complete liability. Easily the worst coach in the NFL today and it looks like Denver is realizing their mistake. News is breaking that Hackett’s could be out of a job depending on the results of this game. If this is truly the case, then good. Hackett Should have been fired after that Indianapolis Colts game week 5.
The Jags are my second favorite team and I have no clue what they are doing. Especially trading James Robinson to the New York Jets for pennies on the dollar. I also am not sure about Trevor Lawrence either as there is no question how talented he is, but something is really off about him. He has not been performing that great this season. However despite my concerns on what the Jaguars are doing I really think this is a great spot for them, so I am taking Jacksonville. I may even bet on this game.
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Sunday Football (1:00 PM)
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (+3)
While Detroit has not been as good as I thought, they still could make the playoffs, especially with how bad this division is, there still is a chance. Detriots’s defense may be horrible, but I think they will be great in this game as Miami struggled against a non TJ Watt led defense dealing with injuries. Tua should not have played last week as he struggled so much and made a ton of bad throws. The Dolphins are a very mediocre team and their defense is really bad. Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett was playing bad last week against the Dolphins defense and should have had like 3 or 4 picks. Miami’s defense really is bad and I have to take Detroit here especially as they are the home team.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+3)
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Out of all the afternoon games, this was the one that I really debated picking. I don’t think the Vikings are a great team, but if they perform the way they have, then they could win this division. I like that the Vikings are home and they play better in Minnesota than they do away. They seem like a legit team and a team many are going to bet. However the Cardinals were on the Mini bye as they played on Thursday and have had extra time to prepare for this game. Now Arizona is a poorly coached team and I still believe Kingsbury is on the hot seat, but it is a big advantage being on the mini bye. With Hopkins back the offense is a bit better and I think James Conner will be back at running back as well. I am leaning with Arizona here, but this game to me is a no bet.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
This one I am not going long here. Atlanta is my pick here and I think that they dominate the Panthers this week. Atlanta is the home team, there more healthier and properly coached then the Buccaneers are. PJ Walker still is not a great QB and I know he threw 2 touchdowns, but he most of that game did not play well at all. I just can’t avoid taking the Falcons here; it is too good for me to pass on. I contemplated having Atlanta as my Superlock, but there is one game that I like a lot more spread wise.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (+2)
Again I am not going to go long with this one here. I really like the Raiders here as the Saints are a very abysmal team. Not only with the injuries, but the Saints defense is really bad. I don’t know who is starting at QB for the Saints, but it does not honestly matter as I don’t think either is the QB long term or is a great option. But hey at least with the Saints being terrible, at least they will get a top 1st round pick to help rebuild the team and get that QB. Oh wait, their 1st round pick is Philadelphia Eagles property due to that bizarre trade up during the last draft. Yeah take the Raiders and don’t look back, even if Carr is dealing with an injury, he should be good to go.
My Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)
I always love to call this game every time Pittsburgh and Philadelphia face off the battle of the Steagles. In 1943 due to World War II going on teams merged temporarily due to teams losing a lot of players due to their military services. Thus came the Steagles as both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh merged into one team.
This one is an easy one, give me Philadelphia. The Steelers are horrendous and especially there defense without Watt. Even more players on that defense are banged up. This feels like a mismatch where Hurts is going to run all over them. Even though this offense is poorly run and I like what I am seeing from Kenny Pickett. Yes he did have some bad throws against Miami, but he has looked pretty solid most of the time. The Steelers may have something in Pickett, but they got to build the o-line as Pickett is getting hit a lot. Also Imagine Pickett with a competent offensive coordinator as the Steelers need to get rid of Canada. I will take the Eagles here as this is a mismatch.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9)
I am shocked Chicago has won the amount of games that they won. People are excited that the Bears are better because they are 3-4. However If the Patriots did not have two hacks running the offense in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, the Patriots would probably win that game. I really like Dallas here and according to DVOA Dallas has the 2nd best defense in the NFL and I think the Cowboys just crushed the Bears this week. Give me the Cowboys here and I honestly would have taken the Cowboys this week in survivor if I was still alive.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-9)
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+2)
Ok I get that the Jets lost two pro bowl offensive players in OG Alijah Vera-Tucker and RB Breece Hall, but how are the Patriots favorites? They just lost to the Chicago Bears and yet they are still favorites?I don’t get that at all. The Jets are still a very good football team. They just acquired James Robinson who is going to be a suitable replacement for Breece Hall this season. Look, Zach Wilson has not been great so far as the QB of the Jets and I am 50-50 on him, but I prefer Wilson over Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones. Both Zappe and Jones looked terrible against a bad Bears defense. Also 23 unanswered points were scored by the Bears as well is concerning due to how poorly built that team is. The Jets defense is legit and they have the best cornerback duo since the Revis and Cromartie days. Ahmad “Sauce’’ Gardner is a shutdown corner, but many are sleeping about how great DJ Reed has been on this Jets defense. To me the Jets are clearly the better team excluding the QB play and I am still unsure about Saleh as the head coach. This spread is super off, Give me the Jets this week.
My Pick: New York Jets
Sunday Football (4:05 PM)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+2)
Yuck, this spread is weird and makes no sense to me. Say what you want about the Titans, but the Texans are awful. They are punting the season and excluding Dameon Pierce, the Texans have nothing on offense. Maybe Laremy Tunsil, but It looks like Brandon Cooks is on the trading block and I would be shocked if he is still on this team.Tennessee is overall the better team and I will take them here spread wise and you know what, they are going to also be my Superlock for this week.
My Pick: Tennessee Titans (-2) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
Sunday Football (4:25 PM)
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Ahh now here is a game that could be an interesting one. I can already hear the How response coming. Ohh not the way you think of playoff wise, but it is for an important reason. It is because this is the 2nd TANK GAME in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Two teams with one goal in mind to get the high draft choice and the best way to do that is to lose. What the heck do you mean the Colts are benching Matt Ryan? It is something that should have happened many weeks ago as he can no longer play anymore due to how much he has declined. Now the Colts will be starting Sam Ehlinger at QB to see if he could be the guy long term. Jobs maybe in stake for both teams, but in the long term it will help both franchises to lose. Henicke and the Commanders did beat the Packers and the Colts are a lot worse, so I will fade the Commanders as the Colts are awful. I still could care less about what happens to the Commanders on the field as I am more focused on what happens to the Commanders off it. The biggest question I have is: What dirt does Dan Snyder have on everyone in the league?
My Pick: Washington Commanders (+3)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+1.5)
This seems like an easier pick as the 49ers acquired McCaffery via trade, but the 49ers are still banged up. I doubt Deebo Samuel will play this game for the 49ers and losing Kyle Juszczyk is a big deal even though he is a fullback. The defense is still filled with injuries as well. I am not 100% confident that the 49ers will be healthy.
On the other side, I got to be real though, the Rams are in trouble. Stafford looks like his elbow injury is worse and it doesn’t help that the o-line for the Rams is awful. Even this defense is an issue as it is clear they are missing Von Miller as the pass rushing is an issue. McVay is a Top 5 coach though and should help lead this team. I trust the Rams more than I do the 49ers, I am leaning with the points here. You would be insane to bet on this game.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+1.5)
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
This may be the game of the week for me as both teams thought to be bad are very competitive.
I would be shocked if Daboll does not win coach of the year as he has been excellent this year. It shows that coaching matters in the NFL. Even though the Giants are performing well, I still don’t think Daniel Jones is the guy at Quarterback. He has not been terrible, but he has not been great either. The Seahawks have been great and Geno Smith has been performing very well and I may label this battle of comeback player of the year award as it is either going to be Geno Smith or Saquon Barkley. This is going to be a close game and I can see this being a push spread wise. However, having an east coast team going to the west coast to play a game gives the advantage to the Seahawks. I will take Seattle here, but I am passing betting this game
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
The Packers are an absolute mess right now and when you lose to the Commanders, then that is a tremendous problem. Especially with the Commanders starting Henicke, questionable coaching, a team that is heavily distracted by their disgraceful owner, and the defense regressing. The Packers offense is a real mess right now. Look I am a big Aaron Rodgers fan growing up and Always ranked him as a Top 5 QB, but he has not looked great either.
The question that keeps getting asked is: Is the struggle due to Aaron Rodgers still playing injured, or that he just does not want to play in Green Bay anymore? I am leaning towards him being injured because he does not have a good grip on the football. I don’t think it is just a thumb injury either as he does not even have a great throwing movement at all. Rodgers is clearly dealing with some sort of injury right now. I wonder, at what point does Jordan Love come into play at QB? If the Packers play the way they have and still continue to go nowhere this season, then start the kid. I want to see him start multiple games and see if he is the real deal.
Also, David Bakhtiari who is the blindside tackle on the Packers not even one game back and he is yet again dealing with another injury. I hate that this has happened as he is when healthy the best tackle in the league, but he can barely get on the field. That contract he is currently on is biting this team in the neck and I would even consider doing an Osweiler effect movie on him in the offseason.
The Packers defense is just abysmal as well. Their pass rushing is a mess and their run defense is horrendous. I know he may take time to develop as he is a rookie, but Quay Walker stinks. He is not ready to be the full time starter as the starting linebacker on this team and the Packers have a lot of work when developing him. This season has also exposed Matt LaFluer as I really think he is an overrated coach. Do I think he is on the hot seat this season, I don’t think so, but in 2024 it is definitely a possibility.
As for this game, it may seem like too many points, but I am taking Buffalo here and I would not be shocked if the Bills won by 20 points.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
Monday Night Football
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
This is an interesting game as not only is it a divisional game, but this will be very telling for both teams. I see many are taking Cincinnati, but people are sleeping in Cleveland here this week. Yes their defense is terrible, but so are the bengals. Especially when stopping the run and now facing Nick Chubb who in my opinion is the best runningback in the NFL. I can really see the Chub running all over the Browns in this game.I kind of like Cleveland here, I mean I am not going to bet the game, but I am leaning with the Browns, although I can see the Bengals win this game..
My Pick: Cleveland Browns (+3.5)