Image Credit: (Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 8. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6) Week 7 (9-5) Week 8 (7-8)
Not a great week, but I did better than I thought I would this week. Hopefully I can keep it up with another good week making picks.
Superlock Record (3-5) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8: Tennessee Titans
Was nervous I was going to lose yet again, but then I realized the Titans were facing the Texans and that relieved a bit of stress.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 8 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 9. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (+14) The NFL knew what they were doing having this game on Thursday. The World Series is happening on this same date and a chunk of the fanbase are going to watch the baseball game. I am not a big baseball guy, myself, but I will be watching the World Series at the same time as this game is going on. I would not be shocked that there is a ratings plunge with this game.
Especially when the Eagles are one of the best teams according to DVOA and are facing off against the worst team according to DVOA. Seems simple enough to just blindly take the Eagles this week and you know what I will do. Even though the points are a lot I just can’t take the Texans at all this week, so of course I will take the Eagles.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
Sunday Football (1:00 pm) Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5.5) Look I get the Patriots are the home team here and have won a chunk of games, but I really think the Patriots are terrible. Not only because Patricia and Judge are running the offense, but the Patriots have an issue at QB. Mac Jones has regressed heavily this season and Bailey Zappe has been mediocre too. However I would rather side with the patriots right now then the Colts. Indianapolis is horrendous and how they beat the Chiefs a while ago just confuses me. Look I like Frank Reich as a coach, but his job is not safe this season and I can really see the Colts parting ways with him or GM Chris Ballard. Colts owner Jim Irsay has clearly been angry with him being the one that voiced Reich to bench Matt Ryan. The Colts even recently fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady, however this is only a band aid as Recih has for many weeks been calling the plays. The Colts won’t have Johnathan Taylor who has been injured a ton this season and the o-line has not been great either. Sam Elingher has promise at QB, but he was not that great against a disappointing Washington Commanders defense. Is he an upgrade over Matt Ryan, absolutely but we will see how he does against the Patriots. The Colts defense is again a big disappointment and I really like the Patriots in this spot here. By the way, The New England Patriots would have been my survivor pick for this week if I was still alive.
My Pick: New England Patriots (-5.5)
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) This number was originally at 10 points, but due to the Panthers performing well against Atlanta and the Bengals struggling on Monday It dropped to 7.5 points. Look I get many see this as a bounce back spot for the Bengals, but this is way too many points. Especially in how bad the Bengals were against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They desperately are missing WR Ja’Marr Chase who will again not play this week. I get this team went to a superbowl last year, but I have to ask one question, Is Cincinnati really that well coached? They have many times this season looked unprepared and failed to adjust their gameplan this season. This game will be telling and I think the Bengals will win this game as they are more talented, but this is way too many points for me not to take the Panthers here.
My Pick: Carolina Panthers (+7.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders (+3.5) I keep saying this regarding the Washington Commanders, but I care more what happens to them off the field than on it. Especially with Dan Snyder being a constant pain in the neck for the NFL. But one thing for sure is that the Commanders are a lot better with Taylor Heinicke as the QB then with Carson Wentz. Even though they are the home team, FedEx Field is one of if not the worst stadiums in the NFL today. This is a Kirk Cousins revenge game and I think he will have a strong performance in this game. The Vikings have a clear road to winning this division with the Lions being disappointing, Packers being dysfunctional, and Chicago being clueless. The Vikings are the better team and now with Hockenson on offense, the Vikings are scarry. Give me Minnesota here and I will be betting this game. Oh and one other thing I want to say about Washington, Sell the Team Snyder!
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+13) Look I am a New York Jets fan and they have been solid, but the two things I am worried about with this team is the Quarterback and Coaching. First off lets get to Zach Wilson as I am very concerned with how he has developed lately as he has made some awful decisions and throws during his time with the Jets. The other problem is coaching as Saleh has been a very mediocre head coach. Is he horrendous, no but the negatives outweigh the positives. The Jets looked unprepared against the Patriots. The play calling has been an absolute mess and they are not utilizing Wilson properly. That is a big problem.
In regards to this game it is clear that the Bills are more talented and they should take care of business this week and further solidify the AFC East Division. However, it is just too many points for me not to take the Jets especially as they are the home team and are not a completely horrendous team. Would I be shocked if the Jets lost by two touchdowns? No, but I just don’t see it happeneing.
My Pick: New York Jets (+13)
Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2)
Oh boy this is going to be a fun one. Welcome to the Third TANK GAME in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Two teams who are having disappointing seasons, so it is time to look at goals in the long term, by securing more valuable draft capital and their goal to do that is to lose. I got to be honest I have lost hope and confidence on both of these teams.
First off I want to start with the Raiders, I have constantly criticized the hiring of Josh McDaniels and boy have I been right as he has learned nothing from his mistakes in Denver. The coaching in Vegas is just horrendous and getting blown out from a sloppy and terrible New Orleans Saints team is just a joke. With all the weapons the Raiders have on offense and you can’t score one point. Really? They looked unprepared for that game.
In the case of the Jaguars I really don’t know what to think about them and I am really getting concerned with Trevor Lawrence. Some of the throws he has been making have just been horrible. This game should be a big one for Travis Etienne as the Raiders run defense is horrible. I looked it up on DVOA and the Raiders are in the Top 5 worst defenses in the NFL. With the Raiders traveling to play the Jaguars I am leaning towards Jacksonville here. This may be the Jags last shot as if they can’t beat the Raiders, then their season is done. Yes I know they are in the AFC South and there are plenty of weeks left for football, but if they can't beat them in Jacksonville, then there are some massive problems. I will take Jacksonville, but I am not betting on the game.
My Pick Jacksonville Jaguars (+2)
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (+3) The battle of the chokers or the Younghoe Koo revenge game. Both teams have been known to choke and blow leads in their games, however I really think this is the game of the afternoon slot. When looking at both teams the Falcons clearly have the advantage in one area and that is at coaching. Brandon Staley is a horrendous coach and Joe Lombardi the offensive coordinator is on the tier of Matt Canada as he needs to be fired as well. The Chargers won’t have Mike Williams in this game which is a loss on offense. Also the Chargers, a west coast team has to travel to the east coast to play this game which is difficult. Atlanta is an underrated team and I think that Arthur Smith is a good coach. However they got dominated by PJ Walker which just scares me and if it was not for the refs they would have lost against Carolina. I can’t bet this game, because I have no confidence with either side, but I am leaning with the Falcons here.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+3)
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (+5) Not going long here as it looks like both teams are heading in different directions. Miami is trying to win and they are aiming for a superbowl with the moves that they made at the deadline. In Chicago’s case they traded their two defensive players, but don’t worry they got the cancer known as Chase Claypool on their team. I will admit Chicago does have fights in them and while the Bears are a bad team. I will take the points with them, but the Dolphins should win this game.
My Pick: Chicago Bears (+5)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3.5) Both of these teams have heavily been disappointing this season. I really thought Detroit would be a playoff team this year, but there defense is just awful. It is easily the worst defense in the NFL and it is not even close. I guarantee you without looking it up on DVOA they are the worst defense in the NFL. Also, I still have no idea what they are thinking about trading TJ Hockenson during the deadline. This may sound crazy, but I would rather have the Detroit Lions roster now then I would with the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers still looks off and at this point, I don’t know if it is due to injury or him not wanting to be there. The Packers offense is beaten up and they may only have Romeo Doubs playing at wide receiver this week. Their defense is an absolute disappointment and my goodness did they waste a 1st round pick on Quay Walker as he has been terrible for them this season. I also got to say, the Packers head coach Mike Lafluer is so overrated and I doubt they fire him, but he is definitely on the hot seat. I just can’t take the Packers this week until I see a hit of them caring or performing confidently. If Green Bay loses this game, then their season is over. I am taking the Lions in this game.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Sunday Football (4:05 pm) Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2) Look I get that the Cardinals have WR DeAndre Hopkins back, but there is no way the Cardinals should be favorites in this matchup. Arizona is still poorly coached and I can't trust them at all especially with how mediocre this team has been. Also I just finished watching their performance last week, they should have won last week against Minnesota. But they failed to do so, I am repeating but the coaching is just abysmal and Kingsbury has got to go after this year. I don’t care if he was just extended. He is the anchor on this team and if Arizona wants to succeed, they need to get rid of him. I think Seattle is the better team so give me them this week. Oh and the Seahawks are going to be my Superlock this week.
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+2) *Superlock Pick of the Week*
Sunday Football (4:25 pm) Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) I really want to make this game a Tank Game, but I decided not to. I am really starting to get annoyed with both teams as they did next to nothing during the trade deadline, which is a big mistake. The Buccaneers and Rams had a ton of needs and had an opportunity to fix it. They chose to do nothing which makes no sense to me.
Comparing both teams, I have more hope in the Rams as a whole than I do with the Buccaneers. Then Cooper Kupp got injured and I am 50-50 on it. Tampa Bay looks defeated last week and it is time for them to press the panic button. This game to me is going to seal the fate of either team this season and it is a must win for both teams. With the Rams going west coast to east coast it also causes a problem. However, the Rams have less problems then the Buccaneers do and I am leaning towards picking the Rams. You would be insane to bet on this game though.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
Sunday Night Football Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) The Titans have real issues on their team. It is clear from last week Malik Willis is not ready as he was terrible against a horrendous Texans team. Thank goodness the Titans have Derrick Henry on their offense, because if they didn’t they probably would have lost this game. This week they are facing the Chiefs and it really doesn't matter who is the QB against the Titans as there is no way that they are beating the Chiefs especially when they just came off a bye. I am not going to bet it now, but here is how I would handle this game. If the Titans are starting Malik Willis take the Chiefs, if Ryan Tannehill is the starter, take the points. For now I am leaning with taking the Chiefs here.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
Monday Night Football Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (+3) This feels like a weird spread in my opinion as both teams are dealing with injury issues. Yes I know the Saints dominated the Raiders, but the Raiders are poorly coached by Josh McDaniels. The Ravens are the team many are picking this game, but they keep blowing big leads in this game. If the Saints can shut Lamar Jackson down they have a good chance of winning this game. I am not confident with this game and I am passing on betting it, but I am going to take the Ravens as I feel that they are the better team
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-3)