Blitzalytics Gambling Guide
Written by Jeremy Dennis
Now that we are at the Big Game, let’s be honest: Most of the betting public has done the research needed to at least have a puncher’s chance of predicting the outcome (at least they think they do). So, instead of drowning you with too many statistics and hoping for the best, the Degenerate Menace brings you the prop bets that look good for the big game. Plus, frankly, the computer has been balky for the picks against the spread this year so I will need some time to make my prediction. Let the bets begin:
Singing of the National Anthem: Over 2 minutes 1 Second
A rule of thumb for the National Anthem during the Super Bowl: On the biggest entertainment stage of the year, one would want to stay on that stage for as long as possible. Now, we actually have some data from Demi Lovato on this as she sang the National Anthem during a World Series game. The time on that bad boy was 1 minute, 56 seconds. I feel very comfortable in the fact that she can extend this her time in the spotlight an additional six seconds.
Coin Flip: Tails
There is actually a little history behind this goofy 50-50 bet: My friend, Big Steve, and I have a running bet on the coin flip. It started as a $1 but turned into double or nothing. Last year, Big Steve actually Venmoed me $32 bucks. Yes, that is five consecutive wins. Sure, I just jinxed myself. That just means that y’all can pick heads.
Liquid Color for Winning Team’s Coach Dunk: Yellow/Green
Another prop that we actually have some data. In my research, it looks like Kansas City likes to go with the Yellow. I haven’t got the indication from San Francisco, but I think that if you go with the odds, theirs would be Yellow too. Everyone likes Yellow, don’t they?
Travis Kelce: Anything and Everything
I really like the matchup with the 49ers for Travis. Given by the pure fact that the Chiefs will throw the ball all over the yard in this game. They will also have quicker throws to mitigate the 49er pass rush. I believe this is prime time for Kelce. I especially like overs for all quarters for yards (10.5), over for the game (75.5) and scoring a touchdown at any point during the game. If you are feeling feisty, go for multiple touchdowns.
Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards: Under 75.5
I get it, he had a good game against the Packers in the NFC Championship. However, it was evident that Green Bay quit, thus inflating Mostert’s statistics. I also believe that Kansas City is going to force the Niners into more of a passing offense. Therefore…
Jimmy Garoppolo Completions and Attempts: Over 19.5 and 29.5
Winning a football game with less than 10 completions like San Fran did two weeks ago is cute and all, but Kansas City is not going to let that happen. Especially if the high powered Chiefs offense gets fired up and starts getting north of 28 points. I can envision a 24 for 36 game from Jimmy G. so go with the overs.
First Quarter Total Points: Under 10.5
There are a couple of factors working here: Both teams have not seen the spotlight like this. There will be a lot of nerves going into the game. Also, Kansas City seems to start slow and then ramp up as the game progresses (isn’t that right, Houston?). I like a 7-3 start here.
Second, Third, Fourth, 2nd Half, Total Game Score: Over
Once things get clicking, I believe there will be a lot of scoring. The Championship Games were both overs. Kansas City hit the over by themselves against Houston. It will be tough to keep both offenses down for four consecutive quarters. It should be the antithesis of the big game last year.
Result of Game: San Francisco (+1.5)
I have had a tough time, especially in the playoffs, because it seems that my computer simulations are at odds with one another and I pick the wrong sim to bet. At this point, I am going with the “hot-hand” simulation that picked both Championship games correctly. Naturally, I didn’t, so I looked pretty stupid. I think from a gameplay standpoint, Kansas City’s offense is clearly better than San Francisco’s. However, the Niner defense is better than the Chiefs. In my opinion, the difference in defenses is greater than the difference in offenses. Let’s go with the slight upset. San Francisco 35 - Kansas City 33
And finally for those who like suckers bets:
Sure safeties don’t happen very much (only nine in the Super Bowl era). However, if you bet $100 on this prop for every game since 2009, you would currently be up to $2300. There have been four safeties during that time. Heck, if you would have taken this prop bet at this rate for the game’s history, you would still be up close to a grand.
Good luck on Sunday! May the money rain down on you like the yellow sports-type drink will rain down on the winning coach.