By Jeremy Dennis
Here at Blitzalytics, we are noticing some interesting trends as far as wagering on college football goes. Did you know that if you placed contrarian bets against the “line influencers” we have been tracking since this article came out, you would be ahead by roughly $800? The lesson here is that sometimes, going with the crowd is a bad idea. Let’s see how the gamblers fared last week.
Illinois 24 - Purdue 6 Line moved 2.5 points to (-10) for Purdue. To all of the doubters out there, Illinois says, “No hangover here”. The Illini soundly trounced Purdue in East Lafayette. With the rain, the Boilermakers couldn’t catch anything except maybe a cold. The Lovie Train marches on.--The Bettors chose unwisely
South Florida 45 - East Carolina 20 Line moved 3.5 points to (-2) for South Florida. This game had one of the biggest line shifts since we have been tracking them and with good reason. USF had 347 yards rushing and only allowed 13 points to the Pirates on defense. --The Bettors chose wisely.
Utah 35 - California 0 Line moved 2.5 points to (-21) for Utah. If a team is having a hard time putting up points against Oregon State, it would be a tall task for them to put up any points against the Utah defense. Point proved. --The Bettors chose wisely.
LSU 23 - Auburn 20 Line moved 1.5 points to (+10.5) for Auburn. The gambling community was spot on. Auburn’s defense held LSU to their lowest output of the season and a Bo Nix touchdown pass with two minutes to play sealed the cover.--The Bettors chose wisely.
Appalachian State 30 - South Alabama 3 Line moved 2 points to (-26.5) for App. State. Whoa boy, the folks who moved this number were getting nervous. The Jaguars kicked a field goal with five minutes left in the game to make the score 23-3. Fortunately, their money was secured when the Mountaineers broke off a 67-yard run to seal the deal.--The Bettors chose wisely.
Indiana 38 - Nebraska 31 Line moved 1.5 points to (-2.5) for Nebraska. I am trying to figure out what it is that the oddsmakers and gambling public like about Nebraska. Maybe it is their history that gets the gambling movers and shakers to always favor the Cornhuskers. Well, folks, the Cornhuskers are now 1-7 against the spread.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
TCU 37 - Texas 27 Line moved 1.5 points to (-1.5) for Texas. Much like the last game, Texas seems to get favorable lines and rankings from those in the know. Their biggest win to date has been a six point margin over Oklahoma State at home. Away from home, they are 1-2 against the number. --The Bettors chose unwisely.
Michigan 45 - Notre Dame 14 Line moved 2.5 points to (-1) for Notre Dame. Is Michigan turning a corner? Clearly their most impressive win of the year. Do you know who isn’t turning the corner? Folks who moved the line to Notre Dame.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Here is where the money is going this week:
Georgia from (-4.5) to (-6) vs Florida: Interesting move here when comparing schedules. Florida’s only loss is against #1 LSU and Georgia’s loss is to South Carolina at home. Some will say that the quarterback battle actually favors Florida when comparing the statistics for this year.
Michigan from (-18.5) to (-21) at Maryland: It is the unstoppable force (Michigan’s record against the spread) versus the immovable object (Maryland’s meltdown after Week 3). With Michigan’s outcome against Notre Dame, the gambling folk are leaning toward the unstoppable force.
TCU from (+4) to (+2.5) vs Oklahoma State: Both teams are coming off huge wins. TCU vs Texas and the Cowboys versus Iowa St. The money sees the Texas upset as a bigger deal and are shifting the odds towards the Horned Frogs despite playing in Stillwater.
Auburn from (-18) to (-20) vs Ole Miss: There is probably a historical take on this one. Auburn is undefeated against the spread at home. Granted, they have played some really crappy teams, but a cover is a cover. Last I checked, Ole Miss isn’t very good and they can’t settle on a starting QB.
Memphis from (-3.5) to (-6) vs SMU: In the presumed Conference USA Game of the Year, this is a shocker. Both teams are loaded and only have one loss between them. Presumably, the increase in odds for Memphis is because of the locale being the Liberty Bowl.
Nebraska from (-2) to (-3.5) at Purdue: You may reference my Nebraska comments at the beginning of this article for my personal opinion of this change. However, the line influencers may have a point this week. Nebraska is coming off a bye week. Purdue got throttled by Illinois at home. That doesn’t exactly scream, “Pick Me!”
Buffalo from (+1.5) to (-1) at Eastern Michigan: Buffalo is playing with confidence. They have covered four of their last five spreads. Eastern Michigan has been up and down this season but are trending up as well. The bettors have ignored the Bulls away record with this prediction.
UNLV from (+10) to (+8) at Colorado State: The Running Rebels are literally a hot and cold team this year. Cover, don’t cover, cover, don’t cover. The money is not following this logic as UNLV covered last week against San Diego State. Colorado State is 4-3 ATS with an upset win outright against Fresno in their last game.
One notable NFL line to be alerted to is the Buccaneers-Seahawks tilt. The line has moved from Tampa (+7) to (+5) this week. The starting center for the Seahawks is out for the season, so that can have an influence on the game. One other interesting tidbit is that Bruce Arians is 4-1 as a coach when playing at Seattle. Don’t know if that is swaying the odds, but it is good to know.
Don’t forget to check out https://www.blitzalytics.com for all things college and professional football. Anything from scouting reports, to wagering to game analysis to fantasy football is there for your perusal. Enjoy this week’s slate of games!