By Jeremy Dennis
The month of November has come. There are only four more weeks of the regular season remaining in the college football season. Blitzalytics has been tracking lines that have moved 1.5 points are more this year. In that time frame, there have been 67 games that have moved that much. The gamblers that forced the line movement have only won 29 of those 67 games. That is a success rate of 43%. Let’s see how they did last week.
Georgia 24 - Florida 17 Line moved 1.5 points to (-6) for Georgia. The score doesn’t do justice how soundly the Bulldogs took care of the Gators. Georgia is now in the driver’s seat to win the SEC East.--The Bettors chose wisely
Michigan 38 - Maryland 7 Line moved 2.5 points to (-21) for Michigan. Since being ranked and scoring 142 points in two games. The Terrapins have been outscored 260-124 while compiling a 1-6 record. Michigan was the beneficiary of the last game. --The Bettors chose wisely.
Oklahoma State 34 - TCU 27 Line moved 1.5 points to (+2.5) for TCU. It is hard to win an away game in college football. It seems to be especially difficult to win won in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs played valiantly, but Chuba and Company were able to put TCU away at home. --The Bettors chose unwisely.
Auburn 21 - Ole Miss 20 Line moved 2 points to (-20) for Auburn. It was a slight surprise that Ole Miss covered in this match-up. It was extremely surprising that Ole Miss almost upset them in Jordan-Hare Stadium.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Memphis 54 - SMU 48 Line moved 2.5 points to (-6) for Memphis. This was a good news scenario to all gamblers who pushed this to -6. Anyone who decided to bet Memphis after that ended up kissing their sister.--The Bettors chose wisely.
Purdue 31 - Nebraska 27 Line moved 1.5 points to (-3.5) for Nebraska. Just like I said last week, why does anyone bet Nebraska? The Cornhuskers are now 1-8 against the spread. Seriously, stop betting them. There are 40 other games that you could bet.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Buffalo 43 - Eastern Michigan 14 Line moved 2.5 points to (-1) for Buffalo. Eastern Michigan is now in free-fall as they have lost four of their last five. The Bulls finally won an away game and stand one win away from being bowl eligible. --The Bettors chose wisely.
Colorado State 37 - UNLV 17 Line moved 2 points to (+8) for UNLV. The luster of the Vanderbilt win has worn off for the Running Rebels. The Rams scored on the opening kickoff of the game and never looked back.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Here is where the money is going this week:
Michigan State from (-13) to (-14.5) vs Illinois: Poor Illinois. Every week, the line goes away from them. However, it seems to be good with the bettors who pick Illinois. Michigan State is coming off a bye and Illinois is almost coming off a bye (Rutgers). The money thinks that Sparty is going to show up this week.
South Carolina from (-4.5) to (-6) vs Appalachian State: The possibility that the Mountaineers really have nothing to play for could be in play here. After being upset by Georgia Southern over the weekend, the chance to play in the New Year’s Six is out the window. I am sure that the Sun Belt Championship is nothing to shake a stick at, but the line influencers are feeling that the Gamecocks will take advantage.
Northwestern from (+2) to (-2.5) vs Purdue: This line has moved 4.5 points. That is a lot per our analysis. Probably the best guess as to why this line moved as much towards a one-win Northwestern team is the fact that the Boilermakers are starting their third-string quarterback. They lost their back-up to injury against Nebraska.
Florida from (-25.5) to (-27) vs Vanderbilt: Simple premise for the shift here is that Florida is a Top-15 team and Vandy is a Bottom-15 team.
Charlotte from (-12) to (-13.5) at UTEP: Charlotte has actually strung together a couple of conference wins in a row. I believe that if the wind shifted in El Paso, the line would change away from UTEP’s favor. Also, the Miners have only covered one game this year.
East Carolina from (+23) to (+21) at SMU: The money must be thinking that there will be a hangover after a tough loss at Memphis on Saturday. The Pirates have actually covered four of the last five against the spread after losing to Cincinnati by three last weekend.
Western Kentucky from (+2.5) to (+1) at Arkansas: Frank Broyles would turn over in his grave if he found out that the odds of Arkansas losing to Western Kentucky were almost even. The Razorbacks have lost six games in a row including one to San Jose State at home. Western Kentucky has covered four of its last five ATS.
Fresno State from (-4) to (-5.5) vs Utah State: Jordan Love and Utah State have had a tough go of it lately. In the last two weeks, they have been outscored by Air Force and BYU by a combined 73-21. Fresno pulled out a thrilling upset win against Hawaii. These results are probably initiating the movement toward Fresno State.
For the boys on Sunday, there wasn’t much cooking on the gambling front. However, it seems the betting public couldn’t decide on the Chargers - Raiders game. The number started at L.A. -1. It drifted to Oakland -1 by Wednesday. By game time, it was back to the Chargers -1.5.
To get all of the up-to-date information so that you can make informed picks, stop by https://www.blitzalytics.com. We look forward to you checking out the content. Until next week, good luck on your picks….you know, in the states that allow it...