By Jeremy Dennis
If anything is to come of this weekly article, I sincerely hope that you heed the warnings that it shows. Much like the stock market, if you follow the crowd, you will typically lose money. Since we began tracking the record of those who move the college football lines at least 1.5 points to one team, those bets have come in at a rousing 36 wins and 47 losses. As we come down the stretch, let’s hope that these bettors get at least a little smarter so they can get close to break-even. As for last week:
Marshall 31 - Louisiana Tech 10 Line moved 2.5 points to (-5) for Marshall. Shame on me for reporting that there was no real action on this game and that I didn’t understand the big line movement for Marshall. Come to find out, there were several suspensions on the Louisiana Tech side. Good call!--The Bettors chose wisely
San Diego State 17 - Fresno State 7 Line moved 2.5 points to (-1) for Fresno State. Conversely, I wondered allowed last week if the bettors were putting too much emphasis on the Aztecs’ loss to Nevada at home the week prior. Looks like that was the case on Saturday. --The Bettors chose unwisely.
Temple 29 - Tulane 21 Line moved 2 points to (-6) for Tulane. The Temple Owls are a team I have personally struggled with all year. How can a team be so good at home, yet so bad on the road? This question came to bite the butts of the bettors again as they moved the line away from the Owls at home and Temple preceded to win the game outright. --The Bettors chose unwisely.
Clemson 52 - Wake Forest 3 Line moved 1.5 points to (-34) for Clemson. For those who do not think that Clemson is playing pissed off, shame on you. I really pity South Carolina and whomever the Tigers face in the ACC Championship.--The Bettors chose wisely.
Northwestern 45 - UMass 6 Line moved 2.5 points to (-41.5) for Northwestern. I know, I know. I fell for it too. Despite the fact that the Wildcats only had one win under their belt, I thought for sure that they could still hang 50 on the Minutemen. It was close though. For those who got the early line, at least it was a push.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Notre Dame 52 - Navy 20 Line moved 2 points to (+7) for Navy. If you look at recent history, I guess you could see the allure of taking the Midshipmen. However, this year’s Irish team has played very well with its only loss being the #4 team in the country. Navy just didn’t have the horses.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Kentucky 38 - Vanderbilt 14 Line moved 1.5 points to (-10) for Kentucky. The line influencers were sweating when the Dores were up 14-3 in the first quarter. That went up in smoke pretty quickly as the Wildcats outscored Vandy 35-0 over the next two stanzas. They were counting their money in the fourth.--The Bettors chose wisely.
Alabama 38 - Mississippi State 7 Line moved 4.5 points to (+17.5) for Mississippi State. The gambling community had to know that Tua was going to play right? He only needed a half to take the money from the movers and shakers. Get well soon, Tua!--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Here is where the money is going this week (and at this point, where you should run away from):
Miami-Florida from (-18.5) to (-20.5) vs Florida International: I would like to think that this is a no-brainer. The Hurricanes are picking up steam while the Golden Panthers can’t cover their last four spreads in Conference USA. Throw in the fact that it is a virtual home game for The U. Bettors are smelling blood in the South Florida waters.
Florida Atlantic from (-19) to (-21) at UTSA: The money is going with the Flying Kiffins due to the Owls only losing two games ATS this year. They are playing a middle-of-the-road C-USA team. Not much love for the Roadrunners in this game.
Louisville from (-8.5) to (-10) vs Syracuse: Both of these teams are coming off wins. Looks like the Line Influencers are weighting the Cardinals’ 7 point victory over N.C. State a little heavier than The Orange’s 49-6 dismantling of Duke in Durham.
Oregon State from (-12.5) to (-10.5) at Washington State: Here is a little quiz for you: Which team is currently second in the Pac-12 North? Washington? No. Stanford? Nope. Washington State? Negative, Ghost Rider. The answer is Oregon State. The gamblers have also noticed the Cougars are last in said division. Probably a good reason for the line shift.
Iowa State from (-23.5) to (-25) vs Kansas: Let’s assume this is simple math. The Cyclones are 4-3 in the conference and playing at home against the Jayhawks that are 1-6 in conference play. But is 25 too big of a number? Kansas has been known to beat big spreads this year.
West Virginia from (+7) to (+5.5) vs Oklahoma State: The line stayed steady in this match-up until today when it was announced that the Cowboys’ quarterback, Spencer Sanders, is out for the season. Everyone is now piling onto the Mountaineers.
Michigan from (-8) to (-10) at Indiana: Is anyone really surprised that the line always moves towards Michigan? I know I am not. Although, it does seem that the Wolverines are starting to peak at the right time. However, Indiana is not a bad football team in its own right. Two years ago, Michigan needed overtime to beat the Hoosiers in Bloomington.
Appalachian State from (-28.5) to (-30) vs Texas State: Did you know that App. State has more wins over Power 5 schools than Texas State has wins against teams with a record over .500? I am guessing that had something to do with this change.
From the NFL angle, only one game really sticks out. In the Seattle-Philadelphia matchup, the line reached (-1.5) for Philadelphia. As of today’s writing, the line is now even. The best idea is that Russell Wilson is a much better quarterback than Carson Wentz. Just a hunch.
Keep on top of all the betting tips and info by going to https://www.blitzalytics.com and remember: If you follow the herd, you might end up in the slaughter. Have a good betting week!