By Jeremy Dennis
We have completed another weekend of football. While there were not many match-ups that were intriguing, the betting landscape was still littered with lucky streaks and bad beats. Thus far, the money moving the big line changes has been right about 50% of the time. Let’s see how they fared last week:
Western Michigan 57 - Georgia State 10 Line moved 3 points toward Georgia State. The media darlings of the Sun Belt Conference were looking to make some hay against the Broncos. The only thing they made was a fool of themselves--The Bettors chose unwisely
Ohio State 51 - Indiana 10 Line moved 3 points toward Ohio State. I chronicled how the line moved as soon as I looked at the lines on Monday. I am glad I locked in at 15.5, but it looks like I could have looked in at 40 as well. Methinks the Buckeyes could be legitimate this year--The Bettors chose wisely.
Washington State 31 - Houston 24 Line moved 1.5 points toward Washington State. It is always tough making a big number when you are on the road. This one was no different. The Cougars were sluggish in the first 20 minutes of the game which hurt the chances to win by 10--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Northwestern 30 - UTSA 14 Line moved 1.5 points to UNLV. The money was pretty smart on this one. Northwestern was sluggish in the first half only leading 16-14. While the Wildcats did outscore the Rebels 14-0 in the second half, it was not enough to cover the number--The Bettors chose wisely.
Clemson 41 - Syracuse 6 Line moved 1.5 points toward Clemson. The Carrier Dome is usually a tough place to play and Syracuse has given Clemson all they can handle of late, but Saturday was not one of those days. It was clear from the outset that Clemson was not going to sleepwalk on the Orange--The Bettors chose wisely.
Temple 20 - Maryland 17 Line moved 1.5 points towards Temple. This is a great example for those who are getting their feet wet on wagering. Don’t get sucked into all of the high powered offensive numbers. A good defense can most certainly neutralize a good offense which is what happened here--The Bettors chose wisely.
Minnesota 35 - Georgia Southern 32 Line moved 1.5 points toward Minnesota. On paper, Georgia Southern really isn’t that good. They only had 198 yards of total offense against the Gophers. However, throw in touchdowns for the defense and special teams and the Eagles covered and almost beat Minnesota--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Texas 48 - Rice 13 Line moved 1.5 points toward Texas. The wagers made it clear that this was going to be a rebound game for the Longhorns. For 58 minutes, it looked like they would be correct. When Rice put together an 8-play 75 yard drive to make the score 41-13, there was surely gnashing of teeth and rending of garments on the Texas money side. Thankfully, D’Shawn Jamison returned the ensuing kickoff 98-yards to keep the cover intact--The Bettors chose wisely.
Here is where the money is going this week:
LSU from (-21.5) to (-24.5) against Vanderbilt: Everyone is convinced that LSU is a playoff caliber team after winning in Austin a couple of weeks ago. For Vanderbilt, everyone expected them to get whooped by Georgia. They didn’t expect the Commodores to get the brakes beat off them by Purdue though.
Tulane from (-3.5) to (-5) against Houston: The bettors want to ride the Green Wave after throttling Florida International and giving Auburn all they could handle for a half at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Should be a good match-up with Houston as the Cougars played #20 Washington State tough last week losing 31-24.
Nebraska from against Illinois (-12.5) to (-14) : The money still loves them some Cornhuskers. They are taking the 44-8 thrashing of Northern Illinois as a sign of things to come. After winning their first two, the Illini lost at home to MAC mid-ranger Eastern Michigan.
Boston College from (-7) to (-9) against Rutgers : Either no one saw the Boston College game last week against Kansas or the smart money has some interesting info on Boston College. Granted, Rutgers is probably the worst team in the Big 10. It appears that the gamblers believe Kansas is better than Rutgers
Florida International from +9.5 to +7 against Louisiana Tech: This is certainly going against the common conception that Florida International is dreadful. Tulane drilled them. They followed that up with a loss to Western Kentucky. Last week they won by 13….against New Hampshire. Not really a glowing review. Yet, the money thinks the number is too big against La. Tech.
Old Dominion from +30.5 to +28.5 against Virginia: Considering Old Dominion’s performance against Virginia Tech in the last two years (2-0 against the spread and a victory last year outright) the money is swaying towards them covering this big number against the Cavaliers as well. Virginia has wins against William and Mary, Pitt and Florida State. If William and Mary and ODU are comparable, the Cavs might have a chance since they beat WMU 52-17 two weeks ago.
After a couple of days for the NFL lines, the ones that are moving shouldn’t be shocking. The Jets-Pats game and the Dolphins-Cowboys game started with the Pats and Cowboys favored by more than 20 points(?!?). However, the movement is shocking. As of this writing, the Pats went from 22 to 23 point favorites and Dallas moved from 21.5 to 23.5. I would have to dig in the record books to see when the last time a couple of 20 points spreads covered for the favorite. It certainly doesn’t happen that often.
To compare your picks against ours or get some help with your wagering, check out all of the Blitzalytics staff picks for college and NFL at: https://www.blitzalytics.com/betting.
Enjoy your football weekend! Now go pick some winners!