By Jeremy Dennis
@menace524
After a 5-3 week for the money on the big line-movers last week, it looks like the betting community is starting to get their sea-legs under them after starting the year batting about 50%. Let’s see how the bettors fared on last week’s college action:
LSU 66 - Vanderbilt 38 Line moved 3 points to (-24.5) for LSU. Welcome to the 21st century, LSU. Not only have the Bayou Bengals adopted a higher-tech offense, but their signal-caller Joe Burrow is also running the new system to perfection. If this play continues, the LSU-Alabama game is basically a playoff game and will be one of the most sought after tickets of the year--The Bettors chose wisely
Tulane 38 - Houston 31 Line moved 1.5 points to (-5) for Tulane. Sure, it took some heroics in the second half and an unbelievable sequence with a fake kneel down and a 50 yard touchdown pass to end the game, but a cover is a cover--The Bettors chose wisely.
Nebraska 42 - Illinois 38 Line moved 1.5 points to (-14) for Nebraska. I wonder when it is going to be panic time for the Cornhusker faithful. Nebraska needed to outscore Illinois 15-3 in the fourth quarter to win. The good news is that they only have three ranked teams on their schedule, the bad news is that the first one is next week against #5 Ohio State--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Boston College 30 - Rutgers 16 Line moved 2 points to (-9) for Boston College. The general consensus on this match-up for Boston College was that the Kansas game the week before was an anomaly. It is also very apparent that Rutgers is still Rutgers and not a very good football team.--The Bettors chose wisely.
Louisiana Tech 43 - Florida International 31 Line moved 2 points to (+7) for Florida International. It is pretty clear now that Florida International is not the team it was a year ago. It is clearer still that the Panthers defense is abysmal on the road, allowing 42.5 points a game away from home.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Virginia 28 - Old Dominion 17 Line moved 2 points to (+28.5) for Old Dominion. The Monarchs have certainly done well against their in-state foes in the last two years. In three games against Virginia and Virginia Tech, ODU is 3-0 against the spread with one outright win last year. The money certainly knew what they were doing on this one.--The Bettors chose wisely.
Here is where the money is going this week:
Buffalo from (+2.5) to (-3) against Miami-Ohio: Buffalo, bolstered by a big upset against Temple, looks to get its first conference win this week. Miami-Ohio looks to not be remembered as the team that lost by 71 to Ohio State. No real injuries to speak of. It looks like the gamblers are just following last week’s trends.
Georgia Tech from (+10) to (+8) against Temple: Another instance where the bettors seem to be following the trends. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a bye week and have had two weeks to prepare. The Owls come off a disconcerting loss against Buffalo. Otherwise, both teams seem relatively healthy.
UCF from (-42.5) to (-44) against UConn: This is an interesting shift. As we have seen with other teams (with the exception of Ohio State), it is very hard to cover these big numbers. In the last three years against UConn, the Golden Knights have won by 39, 25, and 8. Seems that the money likes a revenge game after UCF’s loss to Pitt last week.
BYU from (-1) to (-2.5) against Toledo : BYU has done well despite a tough schedule this year. The money likes BYU on the road against the top MAC team despite losing to Washington big last week. The Rockets have not beaten anyone of consequence. However, they do play well at home.
Alabama from (-35) to (-38.5) against Ole Miss: Ole Miss is battling Arkansas for the worst team in the SEC West. Alabama is Alabama. The last two years, this match-up has yielded Crimson Tide victories of 62-7 and 66-3.
Stanford from (-3) to (-4.5) against Oregon State: Stanford has lost three games in a row to USC, UCF, and Oregon. Oregon State is coming off a bye week, but the bettors still believe that Stanford is still almost a touchdown better than the Beavers. The fact that Cardinal quarterback K.J. Costello is questionable this week apparently has no bearing on the betting number.
Notre Dame from (-11) to (-12.5) against Virginia: The Fighting Irish held their own against #3 Georgia last week. The Cavaliers held their own against...Old Dominion. The Hoos eventually pulled out a win, 28-17. The bettors feel it will be a tough match-up for Virginia in South Bend.
Old Dominion (-1) to (-3) against East Carolina: The Monarchs betting line has been bolstered by a good performance at Virginia. East Carolina is being outscored by FBS competition 76-16. The 19-7 victory against William and Mary didn’t instill confidence with the wagering public last week.
The movement in the NFL lines has been slow. The only three numbers that moved more than a half point thus far this week are the Eagles-Packers game (Philly went from +5 to +4), Chargers-Dolphins line (Dolphins inexplicably went from +16.5 to +15.5!!!) and Bucs-Rams (Tampa Bay went from +10 to +9). Otherwise, all is quiet on the gambling front.
To compare your picks against ours or get some help with your wagering, check out all of the Blitzalytics staff picks for college and NFL at: https://www.blitzalytics.com/betting.
Enjoy your football weekend! Now go pick some winners!