Week #12: Who Does Vegas Want Me To Bet On?

Written by Matthew Nereim

If you have not read my “line-reading” approach to betting that deduces who to bet on based largely on what percentage of bets are on which side, and how the line does or does not move with respect to the “action”, then you will want to click on this link below to get caught up on my “quality over quantity” anti-Joe Public (general) philosophy.


With that said, let’s jump right into Week #12’s card and see what looks interesting…which games to stay away from…and see “Who Vegas Wants Me To Bet On” (so I can do the opposite)?

Tampa @ Atl -3.5

69% of the bets are on the Falcons who have put up back to back resounding W’s after a putrid start to the season. The line opened at -3, went as high as 4.5 before settling back down to -3.5. The obvious team to choose is Atl which is why nearly 70% of bets are on them. I may be kicking myself for passing on them a 2nd straight week because I personally really like Atl. But with “Joe Public” all over them, and with the line hardly moving, I can’t get the question “What does Vegas know that I don’t” out of my head? Maybe those receivers coupled with OJ Howard being back will exploit the Falcons more so than I am giving them credit for? Matt Ryan is nursing an ankle too. Vegas’s asking me to bet on Atl, and I really want to. But just can’t pull the trigger alongside heavy Joe P. backing. Pass!

Dallas @ New England -6

56% of bets are on the Pats and the line has dropped half a point. I have a firm rule though – “thou shalt NOT try to beat Belichick in Foxboro” so I will pass. I am not even sure who Vegas wants me to bet on anyways because 6 is a lot. The Over/Under is sitting at 46 however! With 63% of the best on the Over and it creeping up just a point from 45, I am not a huge totals guy in the NFL, but I lean heavily towards the under here in what I see as a smash-mouth type of game in what could be some weather. Bet:

Under 46!

Denver @ Buffalo -4.5

65% of the bets are on Buffalo and yet the line dropped from 5.5 to 4.5. This is normally the exact scenario that I look for!!! But, Buffalo is a tough place to play, and they have a stout defense against a Denver offense that hardly inspires. Vegas is asking me to take Buffalo..and though Denver has played tough all year, and the Bills have had a weak schedule, I am going to pass all around. But no way in heck I would ever bet the Bills with this spread-scenario. Easy pass!

Green Bay @ San Francisco -3

57% of the best are on the Pack and the line has held firm at 3. The 9ers appear to be getting back All World TE George Kittle Back, Deebo Samuel, and possibly Emmanuel Sanders too. The 9ers D has looked mortal the last 3 weeks against the Seahawks and Cardinals (twice). But I look for a big performance this week with a game that I see as potentially getting out of hand in the 9ers favor. If not, a 4-point win will suffice! I am all in! Bet: 49ers -3 (3 times as much $ as the Pats/Cowboys under 46)

Baltimore @ LA Rams +3

69% of the bets are on the Ravens. Last week was an almost identical scenario at home against a rested Texans squad. But like last week, “I WON’T MESS WITH TRYING TO BEAT LAMAR”. Again, “this is normally the exact scenario” that I wait for! But The Lamar-velous One is an exception. You would have to be crazy to want to bet $ against him right now because we still don’t know what he is…or how long he can do it? I at least, have never seen anything like him in my 44 years. Is Vegas giving $ away again? That would be rare! The Over/Under is at 46 and Joe P is on the over. I am tempted to take the under. But again, hoping to cage Lamar and limit him is like pouring gasoline on your hands before you light a fire. I like the under, a lot - but there are better spots…I think. But steer clear of that over at least if you ask me! Pass & Pass

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