By: Robert Robinson
Welcome to speculation season! We’ve gotten to the point that every rookie is the next Odell Beckham or Alvin Kamara and every fantasy owner starts to lie to their friends about who they are high on for this season. Well, we here at Blitzalytics are here to give you the honest to goodness you have come to expect from us. Leading up to your fantasy draft we will take you on a journey through your 3 favorite types of fantasy leagues (2QB, Standard, and 0.5 PPR) from every pick position in a 12 team league. Today we take a look at a way too early, you should never ever draft this early, EVER, mock draft.
These mocks were done using Fantasy Pros’ Mock Draft Wizard (https://draftwizard.fantasypros.com/football/mock-draft-simulator/settings/) This mock is for a half point ppr scoring mock draft. The roster will be as follows: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE), K, and DST and 6 Bench.
To quote the Joker: Here. We. Go.
ROUND 1
1. Le’Veon Bell, RB (PIT)
2. Todd Gurley, RB (LAR)
3. Antonio Brown, WR (PIT)
4. Deandre Hopkins, WR (HOU)
5. David Johnson, RB (ARI)
6. Alvin Kamara, RB (NO)
7. Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL)
8. Melvin Gordon, RB (LAC)
9. Michael Thomas, WR (NO)
10. Odell Beckham Jr., WR (NYG)
11. Mike Evans, WR (TB)
12. Julio Jones, WR (ATL)
Analysis: I really hoped that either Bell or Gurley fell to me here as I have those 2 slightly above both Brown and Johnson. Since they are both gone by this point I have a choice between AB and DJ, quite a good position to be in! This may have been the toughest decision I made during my whole draft. While most believe that it is hands down Antonio here I easily could have made DJ the pick, but it was too hard to pass up on a WR who finished top 3 at his position in each of the last four years. So, Antonio it is, but I really couldn’t go wrong here, as I am confident both players will finish in the top 3 of their respective positions barring injury.
ROUND 2
1. A.J. Green, WR (CIN)
2. Keenan Allen, WR (LAC)
3. Rob Gronkowski, TE (NE)
4. Saquon Barkley, RB (NYG)
5. Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN)
6. Kareem Hunt, RB (KC)
7. Davante Adams, WR (GB)
8. Josh Gordon, WR (CLE)
9. Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR)
10. Leonard Fournette, RB (JAX)
11. Tyreek Hill, WR (KC)
12. Lesean McCoy, RB (BUF)
Analysis: This was an easy choice for me here. After going AB in round 1 I knew I was going to target my first RB in this round. I had it narrowed down to Devonta Freeman and Fournette. I have concerns with both (Freeman — concussions, Fournette — foot), but it came down to considering “what-if” and giving both of them a full slate of 16 games. I could see Fournette finishing as a top 5 back, while I slotted Freeman somewhere in the early 10s. Fournette became the clear favorite by that measurement. Looking back into the first round, if all things stayed the same but I went with DJ, Tyreek Hill would have been the pick, giving me either DJ & Hill or Brown & Fournette. I would have been happy either way, but am glad I went this way looking back.
ROUND 3
1. T.Y. Hilton, WR (IND)
2. Devonta Freeman, RB (ATL)
3. Doug Baldwin, WR (SEA)
4. Adam Thielen, WR (MIN)
5. Zach Ertz, TE (PHI)
6. Jarvis Landry, WR (CLE)
7. Larry Fitzgerald, WR (ARI)
8. Amari Cooper, WR (OAK)
9. Jerick McKinnon, RB (SF)
10. Alshon Jeffery, WR (PHI)
11. Travis Kelce, TE (KC)
12. Stefon Diggs, WR (MIN)
Analysis: Round 3 posed its first real question to me, as I had Thielen ranked over Baldwin in my fantasy rankings. However, upon looking into it deeper, I could not see any way Thielen has a repeat of last season, which would be needed to justify his selection in this round. Part of me just wonders what the loss of Pat Shurmur will have on his numbers. Baldwin has no such issues. He has finished in the top 15 at his position for the last 3 seasons and, to me, should see a bump up from the 8 TDs he had last season just from the loss of Jimmy Graham alone. His floor is top 15 his ceiling is top 5. I will take that in the 3rd round.
ROUND 4
1. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (PIT)
2. Brandin Cooks, WR (LAR)
3. Demaryius Thomas, WR (DEN)
4. Allen Robinson, WR (CHI)
5. Golden Tate, WR (DET)
6. Aaron Rodgers, QB (GB)
7. Tom Brady, QB (NE)
8. Russell Wilson, QB (SEA)
9. Duke Johnson, RB (CLE)
10. Joe Mixon, RB (CIN)
11. Marvin Jones, WR (DET)
12. Dez Bryant, WR (FA)
Analysis: Sitting with 2 of the top 15 receivers in football gives me the chance to play a little loose in the 4th round. I was looking at Woods here but am still not quite sure how to divvy up the balls in LA as of yet with Brandin Cooks being added to the mix, and the fact that Sean McVay seems downright enamored with his speed. If Edelman didn’t have a suspension hanging over his head I may have taken him here to not risk losing out on him, but I think I can wait for that. So, the pick is Mixon. Mixon got almost 20 touches a game after replacing Jeremy Hill last season until he injured his ankle in week 13 last season. The Bengals freed up those touches by parting ways with Hill this off season. Should the Bengals find a way to not be a dumpster fire on offense this year (I’m looking at you Andy Dalton), then Mixon has top 10 all over him with top 5 potential.
ROUND 5
1. Robert Woods, WR (LAR)
2. Michael Crabtree, WR (OAK)
3. Julian Edelman, WR (NE)
4. Jordy Nelson, WR (OAK)
5. Jamison Crowder, WR (WAS)
6. Kenyan Drake, RB (MIA)
7. Pierre Garcon, WR (SF)
8. Sammy Watkins, WR (KC)
9. Randall Cobb, WR (GB)
10. Alex Collins, RB (BAL)
11. Jordan Howard, RB (CHI)
12. Sony Michel, RB (NE)
Analysis: I’m Glad I waited on Julian as he was sitting right there for me in the 5th round. In 2016 he had 98 receptions on almost 160 targets for 1100 yards. He is a little older and coming off injury, and again, is facing a suspension, but he is one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets. If this were a standard league, or if the suspension ultimately holds, then I may re-access my pick here, but until then I’ll take a catch machine.
ROUND 6
1. Derrius Guice, RB (WAS)
2. Dion Lewis, RB (TEN)
3. Mark Ingram, RB (NO)
4. Kyle Rudolph, TE (MIN)
5. Devin Funchess, WR (CAR)
6. Emmanuel Sanders, WR (DEN)
7. Evan Engram, TE (NYG)
8. Tarik Cohen, RB (CHI)
9. Corey Davis, WR (TEN)
10. Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR)
11. Chris Hogan, WR (NE)
12. Jay Ajayi, RB (PHI)
Analysis: In round 5 I took Edelman, in round 6 I take, in my opinion, the next Julian Edelman. This is a safety blanket pick for me. In the event Julian does get suspended I will simply look to slide Cooper right into that position at around 80–85% expected production. Earlier, I wrote about the addition of Cooks to the roster, and while it scared me away from Robert Woods a little bit, since Coop plays out of the slot I don’t see Cooks hurting his stock too much. While I can’t forecast a progression by leaps and bounds, I can easily see him having a repeat of last season’s 60 catches, 850 yards, and 5 TDs.
ROUND 7
1. Cam Newton, QB (CAR)
2. Greg Olsen, TE (CAR)
3. Devante Parker, WR (MIA)
4. Carson Wentz, QB (PHI)
5. Derrick Henry, RB (TEN)
6. Chris Thompson, RB (WAS)
7. Rashaad Penny, RB (SEA)
8. Jimmy Graham, TE (GB)
9. Drew Brees, QB (NO)
10. Sterling Shepard, WR (NYG)
11. Nelson Agholor, WR (PHI)
12. Deshaun Watson, QB (HOU)
Analysis: When reading some of the names on the list chosen after Parker you may be scratching your head here but hear me out. The man had almost 100 targets WITH Jarvis Landry on the team. Well, Jarvis took his 150 targets to Cleveland this year. This team will be behind A LOT, so they will throw A LOT. Someone needs to take those 150 targets, and I could see Parker taking about 50 of them. If he does we can make some assumptions: With 150 targets, based on career averages of 59% catch rate at 14 yards per catch, he would have 88 receptions for 1,223 yards this season. Based on career LOWS of a 52% catch rate at 11.8 yards per catch, he would have 78 receptions for 920 yards. While he may finish on the low end of that scenario, he most assuredly will finish with more TDs this season. Jarvis had 9 TDs that also need to find a new home, and
since Parker only had 1 last year, I can promise he finishes with more this year.
ROUND 8
1. D.J. Moore, WR (CAR)
2. Kirk Cousins, QB (MIN)
3. Matthew Stafford, QB (DET)
4. Will Fuller, WR (HOU)
5. Ben Roethlisberger, QB (PIT)
6. Delanie Walker, TE (TEN)
7. Robby Anderson, WR (NYJ)
8. Desean Jackson, WR (TB)
9. Carlos Hyde, RB (SF)
10. Royce Freeman, RB (DEN)
11. Andrew Luck, QB (IND)
12. Jordan Reed, TE (WAS)
Analysis: This is just a shot in the dark. I was not really happy about any names in this area, as there are lots of “if things go his way” guys here, so I took a shot on the one I thought had the easiest path. You may say, “but wait, Booker is still there, isn’t he?” Yes, he is. Booker also played second fiddle to a guy the Broncos decided to cut this offseason, and THEN they drafted Freeman in the third round. If they thought for a second that Booker was “the guy” they would not have spent that precious draft capital on Freeman. Royce could push for a top 20 finish this season “if things go his way.”
ROUND 9
1. Marquise Goodwin, WR (SF)
2. Ronald Jones, RB (TB)
3. Lamar Miller, RB (HOU)
4. Kelvin Benjamin, WR (BUF)
5. Marqise Lee, WR (JAX)
6. Anthony Miller, WR (CHI)
7. Kenny Stills, WR (MIA)
8. Tevin Coleman, RB (ATL)
9. Isaiah Crowell, RB (NYJ)
10. Aaron Jones, RB (GB)
11. James White, RB (NE)
12. Trey Burton, TE (CHI)
Analysis: I probably go Jones here had he not gone 1 pick earlier, but I’m not unhappy with Miller here either. If Deshaun Watson plays like he did for that amazing stretch last season, then this is a steal with D’Onta Foreman still an injury concern. That is all contingent on Watson’s performance, as with him Miller averaged almost 15 ppg. Without him…under 10. If Watson doesn’t perform to that level and defenses can key on him more, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Miller eventually loses this job altogether to Foreman. This is definitely a boom or bust pick, but I’m in the camp of Watson truthers. I was pleased to get Miller here as my 4th RB.
ROUND 10
1. Marlon Mack, RB (IND)
2. Marshawn Lynch, RB (OAK)
3. D’onta Foreman, RB (HOU)
4. Rex Burkhead, RB (NE)
5. Kerryon Johnson, RB (ARI)
6. Rishard Matthews, WR (TEN)
7. Theo Riddick, RB (HOU)
8. Bilal Powell, RB (NYJ)
9. Josh Doctson, WR (WAS)
10. C.J. Anderson, RB (CAR)
11. Jamaal Williams, RB (GB)
12. Demarco Murray, RB (TEN)
Analysis: Oh C.J., my how you have fallen. Some people were drafting you in the first round in 2015. 3 seasons later, I can see the value in you in the 10th round. I can easily see C.J. having identical or better stats to Jonathan Stewart in the same role last season, where the latter finished with 198 rushes for 680 yards and 7 TDs. While Anderson may not get 7 TDs he most certainly will catch more balls than J Stew did last season. Stewart caught 15 balls for 52 yards; C.J. could double that. And while I never wish injury on anyone, an injury to McCaffrey could vault Anderson into top 15 status with ease.
ROUND 11
1. Danny Amendola, WR (MIA)
2. Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL)
3. Allen Hurns, WR (DAL)
4. Jack Doyle, TE (IND)
5. Mohamed Sanu, WR (ATL)
6. Cameron Meredith, WR (NO)
7. Devontae Booker, RB (DEN)
8. Tedd Ginn Jr., WR (NO)
9. Matt Breida, RB (SF)
10. Samaje Perine, RB (WAS)
11. Frank Gore, RB (MIA)
12. Ty Montgomery, RB (GB)
Analysis: Around this time every year I just start taking stabs at guys, going with my gut. Well, my gut says that someone has to be the number 1 receiver in Dallas for at the least the first few weeks until rookie Michael Gallup gets his feet under him (see what I did there?). I will pencil Hurns in with that role early. We forget about his 2015 campaign where he had 65 catches on 105 targets for 1,031 yards and 10 TDs, and that was with Blake Bortles tossing him the rock. And while yes, Blake Bortles still hasn’t been swept in the NBA finals, Dak should be better than he was. I do think eventually this job belongs to Michael Gallup, but we will discuss him a little later.
ROUND 12
1. Nick Chubb, RB (CLE)
2. Jameis Winston, QB (TB)
3. Donte Moncrief, WR (JAX)
4. Dede Westbrook, WR (JAX)
5. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (SF)
6. Charles Clay, TE (BUF)
7. Chris Carson, RB (SEA)
8. Wayne Gallman, RB (NYG)
9. T.J. Yeldon, RB (JAX)
10. Michael Gallup, WR (DAL)
11. Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC)
12. Tyler Eifert, TE (CIN)
Analysis: And now it’s a little later. While I believe that Hurns starts the season as the #1 Gallup is clearly the future, for now at least. I could see them force-feeding this kid the ball by midseason. I’m not going to lie to you, I don’t know what to expect as far as numbers from him, but any chance at grabbing a could be number 1 this late in a draft is worth it to me. This is an ALL upside pick.
ROUND 13
1. Martavis Bryant, WR (OAK)
2. Giovani Bernard, RB (CIN)
3. Cameron Brate, TE (TB)
4. Nyheim Hines, RB (IND)
5. Kenny Golladay, WR (DET)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars DST
7. Mike Williams, WR (LAC)
8. Latavius Murray, RB (MIN)
9. Jared Goff, QB (LAR)
10. Dak Prescott, QB (DAL)
11. Chris Godwin, WR (TB)
12. George Kittle, TE (SF)
Analysis: I normally wait until late to pick up a TE as it’s usually just as good to stream the position. However, I loved the numbers Brate put up with Jameis in the starting lineup. With Winston playing, Brate was a top 5 TE. To quote Jay-Z, “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t” and the numbers say Jameis LOVES him some Cameron. The 6 years, $40 million dollar contract the Bucs gave him says they kind of have the feels for him too. I still love O.J. Howard and could see them run some 2 TE sets more often like the Patriots used to do with Gronk and He who shall not be named, so I see both as valuable. I just like Brate more, assuming Jameis goes a full 16.
ROUND 14
1. Corey Clement, RB (PHI)
2. Darren Sproles, RB (PHI)
3. Jonathan Stewart, RB (NYG)
4. Eric Ebron, TE (IND)
5. Los Angeles Rams DST
6. Kenneth Dixon, RB (BAL)
7. Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA)
8. Doug Martin, RB (OAK)
9. O.J. Howard, TE (TB)
10. Matt Ryan, QB (ATL)
11. David Njoku, TE (CLE)
12. LeGarrette Blount, RB (DET)
Analysis: I ALWAYS wait on my QB and this season is no different. Well, actually it is — it’s easier than ever to wait. There are so many good options that streaming is also a legit thing, even for beginner fantasy “athletes.” In this case, where I felt it necessary to fill out a full roster (don’t be afraid not to in real life, it’s ok), I went with Matty Ice super late. I love his weapons and while the offense may never again be as potent as it was under Shanahan, I definitely see it advancing from where it was last year. He still has Julio Jones (at least for now), he still has one of the top 3 RB combos in the league, and the team just picked up Calvin Ridley, who some had rated as the best receiver in the draft. I’m glad I built depth at my other positions rather than reaching for a QB, with one of this caliber just falling into my lap in the 14th round.
ROUND 15
1. Minnesota Vikings DST
2. Philadelphia Eagles DST
3. Los Angeles Chargers DST
4. Seattle Seahawks DST
5. Houston Texans DST
6. Jared Cook, TE (OAK)
7. Denver Broncos DST
8. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE (JAX)
9. Baltimore Ravens DST
10. Kansas City Chiefs DST
11. New England Patriots DST
12. Pittsburgh Steelers DST
Analysis: Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Casey Hayward, Corey Liuget, Brandon Mebane, Jason Verrett, oh and newcomer Derwin James. PLAYMAKERS. If this were an IDP league and I ended up with all those names I would be stoked. Happy to have them as my DST.
ROUND 16
1. Greg Zuerlein, K (LAR)
2. Justin Tucker, K (BAL)
3. Stephen Gostkowski, K (NE)
4. Matt Prater, K (DET)
5. Matt Bryant, K (ATL)
6. Wil Lutz, K (NO)
7. Dan Bailey, K (DAL)
8. Jake Elliott, K (PHI)
9. Chris Boswell, K (PIT)
10. Harrison Butker, K (KC)
11. Mason Crosby, K (GB)
12. Cairo Santos, K (NYJ)
Analysis: Kicker
FULL ROSTER
QB — Matt Ryan (ATL)
RB — Leonard Fournette (JAX)
RB — Joe Mixon (CIN)
WR- Antonio Brown (PIT)
WR- Doug Baldwin (SEA)
WR- Julian Edelman (NE)
TE- Cameron Brate (TB)
FLEX- Devante Parker (MIA)
DST- Los Angeles Chargers
K- Harrison Butker (KC)
BN- Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR)
BN- Royce Freeman, RB (DEN)
BN- Lamar Miller, RB (HOU)
BN- C.J. Anderson, RB (CAR)
BN- Allen Hurns, WR (DAL)
BN- Michael Gallup, WR (DAL)
FINAL THOUGHTS:
All in all, I think it was a pretty good draft overall. You have to love being able to trot Antonio Brown out there every week and just know you’re good. I do see a little weakness as far as my RB position is concerned. There are a lot of boom/bust guys on that list, with my most reliable back Fournette being a bit of an injury concern too. I do think though that one of Freeman, Miller, and Anderson will pan out. If more than one does then that’s great, and I can later leverage that into a trade to possibly upgrade the position overall or keep them for added depth. I also have the lingering suspension looming over Edelman’s head, but again I would be comfortable slotting Cooper Kupp into that role early in the season. At the very bottom of the roster I have 2 chances to land the number one receiver in Dallas. As to whether or not that means anything we shall see, but I’m playing the lottery that late in the draft anyway. Matt Ryan makes me very happy in round 14, and I don’t think I could have done much better at that position. I’d grade this as a playoff team with the potential to be a championship caliber roster with a few shrewd moves later in the season and a couple of my fliers landing.