by Jeremy Dennis
“So you’re tellin’ me there’s a chance.” -- Lloyd Christmas, Dumb and Dumber, 1994
You see, ladies and gentlemen? It can be done! A positive week for the college picks at Chez Menace. Now that the data is pouring in, things are looking up! I wish we could say the same for the Big 12. Holy cow! Could it get any worse for them? The presumed King of the Conference, Oklahoma lost to 28 point underdog Kansas State. Texas needed overtime against Texas Tech. Yikes. The SEC on the other hand turned out about the way we figured. Alabama, Florida, and Georgia won handily. Auburn and Tennessee also started 1-0. LSU continued its winning ways….wait, what’s that? Mississippi State threw for how much? LSU lost? Ooooohhhhhhhh. So much for that magical 2019 season. Let’s get to the picks!
Last Week: Top Picks: 2-2 (50.0%) Total Picks: 15-11 (57.7%) Betting: UP 5.5 Units
Year to Date: Top Picks: 6-4 (60.0%) Total Picks: 26-34 (43.3%) Betting: DOWN 17.6 Units
TIER ONE - FIVE UNITS
Kansas State (-2.5) at Texas Tech
These teams took Big 12’s #1 and #2 to the brink last Saturday with K-State winning and Texas Tech losing in overtime. Obviously, it could be a big letdown game for both squads. I like the Wildcats here because they actually won their matchup last week and I always like betting the boys from Manhattan. Check the record. I do pretty well with them.
North Carolina (-13.5) at Boston College
The Tar Heels are well rested as they have not played a game since Week 2. Boston College has been up and down. They thrashed Duke (which may be a very bad football team) and barely beat a scrappy Texas State group. It is a little iffy with UNC playing away, but the computer says to take the boys in blue.
Memphis (-2.5) at SMU
Memphis has also only played one game, a 37-24 victory in the second week against Arkansas State. This victory has a little more luster since the Red Wolves defeated Kansas State. SMU has been inconsistent with a tight win over Texas State and a blowout over North Texas. Memphis is much faster on both sides of the ball and should be ready for this one.
Virginia Tech (-10.5) at Duke
Duke is just a bad football team. They have been outscored in three games by a cumulative 91-39. The Hokies are coming off an opening season win over North Carolina State 45-24. The Blue Devils have lost by double digits in every game thus far. I see no reason why the trend won’t continue in Durham
Tulsa (+21.5) vs UCF
It is not so much that I don’t think that UCF can’t blow them out of the building. It is more of the propensity for the Golden Knights to let lesser teams cover after sitting their starters. It happened Saturday against East Carolina. It happened last year against the same team and Houston. The Golden Hurricane is also rested, so let’s go with a back-door cover.
TIER TWO - THREE UNITS
Missouri (+11.5) at Tennessee
While one shouldn’t condone a loss as Missouri had against Alabama, they still stood up to the big boys in the second half. Eli Drinkwitz will have his boys ready to play against the Big Orange who only beat South Carolina by four in Game One. 11.5 is too big of a number in this battle.
Baylor (-2.5) at West Virginia
Any doubts of the Bears team without Matt Rhule were quickly dispatched with a 47-14 victory over Kansas. West Virginia looked lethargic in a 14 point loss at Oklahoma State. Baylor will have an equitable defense to the Cowboys and thus be able to handle the Mountaineers.
Cincinnati (-22) vs South Florida
South Florida’s only real game was a 52-0 loss to the Fighting Irish. While that is not much to go on, it will be a safe bet that they will be offensively challenged against the Bearcats. Cincy only allowed 10 points to the option offense of Army. The boys from Ohio should have no problem putting up at least 35 on USF. Should be a snoozer.
Mississippi State (-17.5) at Arkansas
As a bettor, we should know better than to place stock in only one day’s performance. However, the job Mike Leach’s offense did against LSU was incredible. 600+ yards passing against anyone is impressive but against the Bayou Bengals? Whoa. Arkansas faded in the second half against UGA. Their lack of depth on both sides of the ball is going to cost them here.
Auburn (+7) at Georgia
A lot has been made about the second half Georgia played last week and how they will be ready for the Tigers in Athens. Let’s use some common sense. The Bulldogs only scored three offensive touchdowns against a miserable Razorbacks team. I think the Auburn defense maybe a little better than that. I am by no means endorsing an Auburn win. However, seven is a big number and the Bo Nix-Seth Williams connection could be tricky for the UGA secondary.
TIER THREE - TWO UNITS
South Carolina (+18) at Florida
Arkansas State (-3) at Coastal Carolina
Pitt (-14) vs N.C. State
UAB (-20.5) vs UTSA
Oklahoma State (-21.5) at Kansas
Western Kentucky (-7) at Middle Tennessee State
Virginia (+28) at Clemson
TIER FOUR - ONE UNIT
BYU (-24) vs LA Tech
Texas (-11.5) vs TCU
Texas A&M (+18) at Alabama
Florida Atlantic (-6) vs Charlotte
Ole Miss (+6) at Kentucky
LA Monroe (+20) vs Georgia Southern
Oklahoma (-7) at Iowa State
North Texas (-1) vs Southern Miss.
Vanderbilt (+21) vs LSU
Air Force (+7) vs Navy
The weather is getting a little cooler around the country! Time to break out some brown liquor and curse some football games! Enjoy!