Degenerate Menace (-411) - NFL Week 11 Bets


Photo by Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports

Written by Jeremy Dennis

@menace524


I think we can all agree that 2020 sucks like no year has sucked before. So, when trying to get through something like this, the best thing to do is celebrate the small wins. For some bettors (yours truly included), last week was one of those times. For once, it was wonderful to be on the good side of:


1. After being down 24-3 at Detroit, Washington came roaring back to tie it up with 16 seconds left. Sure, after a bonehead personal foul call allowed Detroit to kick a winning field goal, it still covered the 3.5 number after it looked quite bleak for 55 minutes. Author’s note: You heard it here last week when I said that Alex Smith might be ready for action. He was to the tune of almost 400 yards.


2. In a slugfest in Cleveland, Houston was at least going to push their bet as the Browns were salting away the clock. The Texans then employed the matador defense and allowed Nick Chubb to break a long one. The bet was as good as lost until the Wise Chubb decided to go out of bounds at the one-yard line. Cleveland runs out the clock and the push is preserved.


3. While everyone was talking about DeAndre Hopkins’ incredible hail mary catch at the end of the Bills-Cardinals game, the bettors were talking about the ensuing extra-point try. Depending on where and when the bet was placed, the line was anywhere from 2-3 in favor of Arizona. Last week’s article had the bet at -2.5 so an extra point would have blown that bet. Luckily, smarter heads prevailed, Kyler Murray just took a knee on the PAT and the +2.5 Bills bet was cashed in.


Not only did we have an improvement in the record this week, but the new betting system worked as well. Positive news all around! #SmallWinsof2020!


Last week YTD

Record 8-5-1 73-70-2 (51.0%)

Top Picks 2-1 15-18 (45.5%)

Betting Result UP 15 Units DOWN 94.7 Units


TOP PICKS (10 Units)


Pittsburgh (-10) at Jacksonville


Did you see what the Steelers did to the possible Rookie of the Year Joe Burrow last week? Look, I am sure this Luton kid is ok and he put up a fight against the Packers. However, the computer is thinking that a 31-7 Steeler win is quite plausible to stay undefeated.


N.Y. Jets (+9.5) at Los Angeles Chargers


How many 10 point leads have the Chargers been able to keep intact this season? The answer is the same as the number of touchdowns I have scored professionally in my career. Jets don’t have to win, but they ain’t losing by double digits.


Tennessee (+6.5) at Baltimore


Do we remember what happened last season in the playoffs? Are we not convinced that this Ravens team is not as good as the 2019 version? With these answers being yes and the Titans coming off a bye week, there is no reason why they shouldn’t cover this number in 2020.


THE REST OF THE STORY (5 Units)


Arizona (+3) at Seattle


One is on the way up. One is on the way down. Best Thursday night game in awhile.


Washington (-1) vs Cincinnati


The computer is not only going against The Burrow, it is also betting a team from the NFC Hot Garbage Division. Tread lightly (although Football Team did cover last week)!


New Orleans (-4.5) vs Atlanta


Interesting numbers by the computer. The only thing I would interject here is that the New Orleans defense has been much better than Atlanta's. Oh, and Jameis Winston has always seemed to have the Falcons’ number.


Indianapolis (-1) vs Green Bay


I will spare you the “How the Colts Win” Mantra involving Phillip Rivers. Let’s see how Rodgers and Adams deal with a top-notch defense.


Houston (+2.5) vs New England


I do not get how the computer just loves Houston every week. The Patriots may be on the upswing after two straight wins.


Philadelphia (+3.5) at Cleveland


You read that right. The ole’ bag o’ bytes has picked a second NFC East team to cover against a non-divisional foe. Cleveland is either going to blow Philly out of the water or lose outright.


Dallas (+7) at Minnesota


Do you know the emoji with the person shrugging his/her shoulders? That is this pick. Minnesota is turning on the jets of late. Dallas did cover against the undefeated Steelers in their last game and are coming off a bye.


Kansas City (-6.5) at Las Vegas


Apparently, Jon Gruden and Andy Reid are feuding due to the last game these two teams played. Kansas City is coming off a bye and is probably really pissed off. Don’t like that combo for the Raiders.


Miami (-3) at Denver


The Fins playing in Mile High makes me nervous about this pick. In other news, if you would have had a future bet on the Dolphins having a 5-game winning streak at any time in the 2020 season, you can go ahead and cash that bad boy in.


Detroit (+3) at Carolina


I must say, I am not a fan of betting against Carolina two weeks in a row. Especially against a team that barely beat WFT in Detroit.


L.A. Rams (+3.5) at Tampa Bay


The Rams defense is what drives this prediction. Can they stop a Bucs team that put up 40+ against the Panthers last week? Can Jared Goff do enough to cover the number? Ugh.


Hopefully, you all will be able to celebrate some small wins (and possibly big ones) in 2020 this week. Good luck to everyone!


Enjoy!


#betting #JeremyDennis


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