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NFL Week 5: Spread Picks

(Image credit Kyle Terada/USA Today Sports)

Written by: Nicholas Mullick

Before we take a look at my picks for week 5 let's take a look at my week 4 pick performance.

Week 4: Record 6-10

Overall record: 26-35-2

Now that we have gone through how I did in Week 4, I will now give my weekly NFL picks with spreads for week 5. The Spreads from these games were all found on Draftkings.

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Spread +2.5)

This is the first Thursday night game that I am really excited to see happen. The Rams are a strong team offensively and defensively and I guarantee they overlooked Arizona because of this game is on Thursday Night. The Rams are talented on offense and defense but I don't really know what to think of this game. Even though I think the Seahawks are kind of terrible they always play close games against the Los Angeles Rams. This is the toughest Thursday Night game to choose so far and I will not bet his game. But if I had to choose a team, I will take the home team which in this game is the Seattle Seahawks. When in doubt, take the points.

My Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

London Game #1 9:30 am

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (Spread -3)

This is a very special game as this will be the first international game that the NFL is playing since the pandemic hit. That is not all because this is the 2nd tank game in the tournament for the 1st overall pick. Why is this a tank game? Well, half of the Jets defense is injured and Atlanta this season is terrible and will be tanking for a higher draft pick to build the team by possibly getting their QB of the future. I really like Atlanta in this game. The Falcons had a strong performance where they almost defeated the Washington Football Team. Their defense is still a train wreck like the Titans defense. I still have no clue what the Falcons will do with Kyle Pitts as they are not utilizing him properly but If I would absolutely take a chance on Kyle Pitts this week in Fantasy especially with the Falcons reciever room banged up. The running game will not do much as the Jets run defense is solid in this game and I expect Cordarrelle Patterson to not do much in this game. The Jets were heavily impressive vs Titans and as a Jets fan It brought a smile to my face. Zach Wilson made impressive throws into Corey Davis and Keelan Cole. The offensive line excluding Greg Van Roten performed well protecting Wilson and should do a good job with a weak Falcons defense. The Jets have a ton of players that stepped up on defense including LB Quincy Williams and CB Michael Carter II. I hope they can repeat their performance with the Falcons in London, England. I will go with the Falcons but it is a no bet for me as I always stay away from international games betting-wise unless it is a total mismatch like it was in 2013 where the Jacksonville Jaguars got destroyed against the San Francisco 49ers 42-10.

My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Sunday Football 1:00 PM

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Spread -9.5)

The battle of Florida. I really wish Tua was healthy to play this game as I wanted to see how he would do against Tampa bay but unfortunately he suffered an injury and won't play. Jacoby Brissett will be the starting quarterback and he has mainly been mediocre with his performance as the starter. You can blame the terrible offensive line for both Tua’s injuries and Brissett's struggles. The Dolphins terrible offensive line will provide a huge advantage to the Buccaneers defense should steamroll by providing pressure and stopping the run. A concern I have about the Buccaneers defense is with their secondary as it has been lackluster this season mainly due to injuries. They signed cornerback Richard Sherman to help out with the Struggling secondary. By the way, I would never ever years ago would ever think that Richard Sherman would be on the same team as Tom Brady. I doubt Gronk plays in this game, but the Buccaneers have a ton of depth at receivers and Tight End for Tom Brady to throw to. It also helps that Miami’s Defense has not performed well this season especially when stopping the run. Leonard Fournette is a must-start on fantasy football and Ronald Jones can also be a must-start but only in deeper leagues. I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win this game and I will take them to cover the spread.

My Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5)

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (Spread +8.5)

I am not going to go long here at all. Quarterback Davis Millis, who the Houston Texans took in the 3rd round is absolutely terrible. He was a total disaster last week against the Buffalo Bills and did not impress against the Carolina Panthers. He is going to have a tough time this week against the Patriots defense which has performed well in the past week. The Patriots are better than what their record is and I expect Mac Jones to have a strong defense against the Texans terrible defense. My question is why in the world is this spread not at double digits? Is it because the Patriots recently released cornerback Stephon Gilmore? I want to know. I will take the New England Patriots and I will be betting on this game.

My Pick: New England Patriots (-8.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (Spread -3.5)

I really like Carolina in this game. Especially as writing this article news came out that the Carolina Panthers have acquired CB Stephon Gilmore from the Patriots via trade. Carolina’s secondary is going to be scary for opposing offenses to come. I have a ton of confidence in Sam Darnold now that he has competent coaching, consistent receivers, and a solid running back. Now Christian McCaffery is not going to play due to injury but I am really high on Chuba Hubbard. Philadelphia has disappointed me the past few weeks as they have not had a strong performance since their week 1 victory against the Atlanta Falcons. They looked okay against the Chiefs as they scored 30 points but they scored half of those points during garbage time. The Eagles are a good garbage team to invest in fantasy football. I am still a fan of Jalen Hurts but he is not going to get help from this offensive line that is dealing with a ton of injuries. In fact, the injuries are starting to pile up for the Eagles. I will be taking Carolina in this game especially as they are the home team and are a lot better than the Eagles are.

My Pick: Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (Spread -7)

The Detroit Lions are a disaster right now. Especially with the number of injuries that they are dealing with on both offense and defense. They just lost DE/EDGE Rusher Romeo Okwara for the season due to suffering a Torn Achilles and Trey Flowers is dealing with a knee injury that could potentially keep him out vs the Vikings. It gets worse as both Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker have already been ruled out and Penei Sewell in practice suffered an ankle injury and his status is in question. So already the Lions could be without three starting offensive linemen and their best edge rushers on this team which will give Jared Goff and the running back core a tough time in this game. At least TJ Hockenson is a bright spot on this offense that can play well. Right, when I wrote this line news came out that TJ Hockenson as well is dealing with a knee injury. My goodness, the Bobby Layne curse is real for this team and now they are getting bit by the injury bug. This should give the Vikings a big opportunity to impress and do well against a beaten-up Lions team. Even though Dalvin Cook is dealing with an ankle injury he should play this week. If you have not read my Survivor Pick Week 5 article then I will say that the Minnesota Vikings would have been my Week 5 Survivor Pick. I think the Vikings will win and cover the spread in this game and I would be extremely shocked if the Vikings lost...

My Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-7)

New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team (Spread +2)

I don’t really know what to think about this game or both teams at all. I have to say I think Taylor Heinicke is better than both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. The Saints defense is mainly mediocre and I think that Heinicke should have a solid performance. Rewatching the Saints-Giants game last week they were extremely sloppy in this game. That's absolutely due to the injuries the Saints have on their offensive line. I doubt that we see Armstead or McCoy return in this game. That will be an issue with Washington’s defense who should be good in this game but my goodness has Washington's defense been a disappointment to me this year. No Logan Thomas or Brandon Scherff for Washington which are big losses for the offense. Antonio Gibson is a must-start due to the Saints poor run defense. This game is absolutely a no bet for me but If I had to choose a team I would take the points with Washington. But yeah Stay Far away from this game.

My Pick: Washington Football Team (+2)

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (Spread +3)

This is the Game of the NFL afternoon slot and it is not even close. The afternoon games this week are not good at all and this is the game where I have the most interest in watching. Again like I mentioned earlier I don't know what to truly think about either team. Let's start with the Bengals as Joe Burrow is the real deal as he has performed well this season. Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd have performed well and I think Tee Higgins might play in this game. Joe Mixon however is a big question mark as he has suffered an ankle injury and might not play. The Bengals defense has been so-so in this game but here is what's bothering me about the Bengals excluding coaching concerns. When looking back at the Bengals performances this season where they won games, they have not impressed me as they beat a Vikings team that botched a field goal, and two poorly run and coached teams in the Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Now let's take a look at the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has looked like his old self after a terrible week 1 performance and ever since has looked unstoppable. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have been solid but could have a handful in this game as the Bengals run defense is not terrible. The Packers o-line is a little banged up but they could play if they practice later on in the week.

A big injury for this Packers defense is CB Jaire Alexander who suffered an injury in the Steelers game and I don't think he will play which is a huge loss for this defense. Especially as Kevin King could start for this defense. The Packers have as well done a solid job with their performances. But again I will do the same thing I Did with the Bengals. When looking back at the Packers performances this season where they won games, they have not impressed against a good team yet. They beat the Lions who are garbage, the 49ers that have no secondary and dealt with injuries, and an incompetently run Steelers team.

I really like the Bengals in this spot as they are the home team and can see this game going either. I just see this game being close but I think I am going to pass on betting on this game

My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (Spread -1)

These two teams are a lot more similar now than they were last week. Both teams starting QBs are hurt. Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a concussion that will most likely make him not play and Big Ben is dealing with old age, a pec injury, and a hip injury. Can someone explain to me why they are starting Big Ben in this game? The guy is clearly hurt and has not been the same QB since the Elbow injury. He has suffered through Massive Massive regression and decline for the past few seasons. I would have more confidence if Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins (If he ever gets activated) are starting at QB as they are healthier and better than Ben is now. The receiver core in both teams is dealing with injuries as Jerry Jeudy is dealing with an ankle issue and Juju plus Claypool is dealing with injuries as well. The offensive lines of both teams are a complete mess one due to injuries (The Broncos) and the other due to questionable moves made during the offseason (The Steelers). Lesson Learned here never ever ignore the issues of an offensive line until Round 3 of the NFL Draft. Defense wise both defenses have solid edge rushers to get to the QB and are dealing with injuries to the secondary. The play calling for both teams has been abysmal but the Steelers are a lot worse. I will be taking the Denver Broncos in this game but this will be another no bet for me.

My Pick: Denver Broncos (+1)

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Spread +4.5)

Speaking of a poorly run team we have the Jacksonville Jaguars. I knew Urban Meyer was probably not going to work out here but my goodness I never thought he would be this bad at his job. In fact, this hiring at head coach is a lot worse than the New York Jets hiring of Adam Gase. You know it's never a good sign how the culture is in the locker room and the organization when the leader of that culture has become the main distraction for this team. Especially with the whole bar fiasco that took place with him. I am not going to go into full detail about it but Urban Meyer does not come across well at all. His apology to the team also did not help at all as once he apologized to the team and Meyer left the room the team legit laughed out loud and did not believe him at all. It has gotten to a point where there are many placing odds on when Urban Meyer will get fired this season. There is little to no chance that Urban Meyer will be coaching the Jaguars team next season and If he does then you might as well write off the 2022 season. He has also made poor play calls as well during the loss to the Bengals where the Jaguars led by 14 points at halftime. You know who truly is suffering from this, the most is the franchise QB, Trevor Lawrence. Yes, it is his rookie year but this team is going to ruin him more quickly than the Jets did with Sam Darnold. It doesn't help how bad the Jaguars o-line is and that DJ Chark is lost for the season due to a broken ankle injury. At least the Jaguars are not properly utilizing James Robinson but will have a big issue as the Titans run defense is not terrible at all. Let's move on to the Tennessee Titans. They lost last week to the New York Jets and it was clear why because they didn't have their top receivers. I am not sure if both will play but in the latest practice Julio Jones did not participate but AJ Brown did participate in practice. The Titans defense is still terrible and their o-line got exposed plus they are dealing with injuries. There is no question who I will be going herewith. I will take the Tennessee Titans in this game even with the injury concerns.

My Pick: Tennessee Titans (-4.5)

Sunday Football 4:05 PM

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (Spread -5)

A lot of people would label this the Khalil Mack Revenge Game as the Raiders years ago traded Mack to the Bears for draft capital. You know the Raiders during the offseason tried to reacquire Khalil Mack from the Bears due to the Russell Wilson rumor trade. But besides that, I like the Raiders in this game. Especially as the Raiders are the home team. Derek Carr is a better quarterback than what many give him credit for. Excluding Darren Waller, I am not a big fan of the receivers that he has to throw the ball to. Maybe Renfrow but he has been inconsistent. No Peyton Barber as he is dealing with an injury and is now on IR. I like Kenyan Drake in this game as it is clear Josh Jacobs is still playing hurt and I doubt he will be 100% vs the Chicago Bears. The Raiders o-line has been solid but should do well with a weaker Bears defense if they handle Mack and Hicks well in this game. Even though Justin Fields will be the full-time starter now, I doubt that Matt Nagy has a ton of confidence in him as he kept calling Dalton the starter when healthy until today. The Bears offensive line is not good at all and the Bears don’t have David Montgomery at running back in this game. I will take the Las Vegas Raiders in this game.

My Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (-5)

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (Spread +2)

After the performance last week by the Browns. How in the world are they the favorites in this spread? The Browns almost lost to the Minnesota Vikings last week in their home stadium. Baker Mayfield was awful last week and missed an easy touchdown throw he should have made in that game. Excluding his performance against the Chiefs Mayfield has not been the best this season. It is not a good sign for Baker that his offensive line has done a fantastic job protecting him and I really like the running backs for the Browns in this game. The Browns secondary has been mediocre this season. I feel that the Chargers are the better team with the offense and defense. Give me the Chargers and I will be betting this game even though the arena will likely be filled by Cleveland Browns Fans.

My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (+2)

Sunday Football 4:25 PM

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Spread -5.5)

Trey Lance will officially get his first start in the NFL as Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a calf injury last week and did not return. Lance was very solid last week against the Seahawks. He showed a ton of flashes and made some good throws. Lance is also extremely mobile as well and he should do a solid job running around Arizona’s mediocre defense. I really think Arizona’s defense is extremely underrated and I can see Lance exposing it this week. San Francisco's secondary is a complete mess as a large chunk of their secondary is currently injured in this game. Excluding that the 49ers defense should provide pressure to Kyler Murray and stop the run. Especially as Arizona’s o-line is mediocre as well and is dealing with injuries. I think the 49ers also have the better coach as I feel Kliff Kingsbury is an overrated coach. I will be betting this game and I will take the San Francisco 49ers.

My Pick: San Francisco 49ers (+5.5)

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Spread -7)

I want to start this off with something that shows how fast time goes. Did you know almost One Year ago in the same week Dak Prescott suffered his gruesome injury against the New York Giants? It is crazy that that injury took place almost a year ago. So far Dak Prescott is on his way to being the comeback player of the year as he has performed really well for the team. The Cowboys offense is going to have a tough time dealing with the Giants secondary due to the depth the Giants have but the Cowboys have depth at receiver and can perform well. I really like TE Blake Jarwin in this game as the Giants linebacker core is not good and he can expose how weak the Giants are when covering Tight Ends. This might be a bold take but I like Tony Pollard more in this game than Elliot especially as Elliot is on a decline and is currently dealing with an injury. The Giants are coming off an upset where the Giants looked competitive in this game. If the Giants can properly use their weapons like they did last week then this game should be close. I don't trust either team's coaching staff at all and this game is a no bet for me but I will take the points in this game with the Giants but I am not confident at all.

My Pick: New York Giants (+7)

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (Spread -2.5)

This is the game of the week. I really expect this game to be close but I really like the Buffalo Bills in this game. Especially with how inconsistent and sloppy the Chiefs have been. Mainly because of their defense as it has been abysmal all season. Frank Clark is dealing with an injury and hopefully, he returns to form and performs well in this game but the Chiefs secondary yikes. Brashad Breeland has not been good at all this season and will have to deal with Bills QB Josh Allen and this strong offense. The Chiefs are lucky how talented they are on offense because if they didn't this team would not be good. This offense will face a big test against a stacked Bills defense that will do a good job trying to silence the Chiefs offense. So yes I will absolutely take the points with the Bills as I feel they are the better team. Even though Kansas City is the home team.

My Pick: Buffalo Bills (+2.5)

Monday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (Spread -6.5)

This is another game I don't really know what to think about both teams. Both the Ravens and Colts are dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Both defenses have also been an issue due to injuries but the Colts defense is healthier and a lot better. But the Ravens should be thanking Justin Tucker’s leg as the Ravens should be 1-3 this season. This is also a wait-and-see on how the injuries play out as it is unknown yet who will be out or who will be in. This is a stay away from both in survivor and in spread picks. I will take the Indianapolis Colts in this game but this game is a no bet for me.

My Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)


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