By Jeremy Dennis
Up until now, the bettors that sway the college football lines have been relatively sharp. Since we have been keeping track, the line-movers are 16-12 against the spread (57%). But then, this happened...:
Miami-Ohio 34 - Buffalo 20 Line moved 5.5 points to (-3.5) for Buffalo. Chalk one up to the oddsmakers on this one! The line started with Miami being favored by 2 until the money remembered that Buffalo thrashed Temple the previous week. How did that work out?--The Bettors chose unwisely
Temple 24 - Georgia Tech 2 Line moved 2 points to (+8) for Georgia Tech. I wonder if the gamblers were holding out hope that the Yellow Jackets weren’t as bad as they have looked this season with the new coaching staff. Well, the question was answered in spades against a non-Power 5 opponent. Two points, huh? --The Bettors chose unwisely.
UCF 56 - UConn 21 Line moved 1.5 points to (-44) for UCF. This was one of those games where I looked at the score at the end of the third quarter (56-7 UCF) and said “I certainly hope that the back-up defense for UCF doesn’t gack this up. 14 points later, Gack City, USA--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Toledo 28 - BYU 21 Line moved 1.5 points to (-2.5) for BYU. Beware the Glass Bowl! Toledo always plays tough at home. Sure enough, they get an outright win against BYU.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Alabama 59 - Ole Miss 31 Line moved 3.5 points to (-38.5) for Alabama. Can we officially sound the alarm on the Alabama defense? They are actually giving 27 points per game in SEC play. Weirder still is that the two teams they have played don’t exactly have high powered offenses. We are talking about two teams in the bottom half of the conference. Hmmmmm--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Stanford 31 - Oregon State 28 Line moved 1.5 points to (-4.5) for Stanford. Another tough break for the bettors on this one. Stanford had a comfortable 21-7 lead going into the fourth quarter when they allowed 21 points in the fourth. The Cardinal went from up 14 to having to kick a field goal at the end to win. No bueno.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Notre Dame 35 - Virginia 20 Line moved 1.5 points to (-12.5) for Stanford. Even this game was giving the line-shifters some heart palpitations. Virginia was actually winning at the half 17-14. Notre Dame did outscore the Hoos 21-3 in the second half but had to get an interception with three minutes left in the game to seal the deal.--The Bettors chose wisely.
East Carolina 24 - Old Dominion 21 Line moved 2 points to (-3) for Old Dominion. East Carolina is not in Virginia. Therefore, no cover.--The Bettors chose unwisely.
Here is where the money is going this week:
Rutgers from (+14) to (+12) against Maryland: It looks like people are taking my advice and abandoning the terrapins after the first couple of weeks. But do we get a sanity check for this game? It is Rutgers after all.
Kent State from (+38) to (+35) against Wisconsin: Kent seems to be in the upper half of the MAC teams this year. Wisconsin had a tough game against Northwestern. I guess the money doesn’t care that the Badgers are only giving up 7 points per contest.
Washington from (-14.5) to (-16.5) at Stanford: To say that Stanford is struggling is an understatement. The gamblers are thinking that if Oregon can beat them by 15 in Palo Alto and Washington is roughly equivalent, then the HUskies should get close to covering the number. It will also be a matter of which QB Stanford plays this week since they only beat Oregon State by three with a back-up.
UAB from (-8.5) to (-10) versus Rice: The money is still not liking Rice even though they have beaten the spread the last two weeks. UAB is looking to rebound after losing to Western Kentucky last week.
Kansas from (+35) to (+32) versus Oklahoma: You got me. Outside of the Boston College game, Les Miles has been suffering through some painful games with Kansas. Oklahoma is rolling. Will this be a scenario where the Sooner second-string let Kansas outscore them in the second half?
UNLV from (+23.5) to (+22) against Boise: This seems to be an odd considering Boise is undefeated and UNLV’s last home game was a 26 point loss at the hands of Arkansas State. Boise did lose their leading tackler for the year. Maybe that will have an effect on the line?
New Mexico State from (+6) to (+4.5): We here at Blitzalytics check every line of every FBS game. Even this one. I have no real news on this one. I do have an interesting fact though. Did you know these two teams will play twice this year?
Old Dominion (-1) to (-3) against East Carolina: The Monarchs betting line has been bolstered by a good performance at Virginia. East Carolina is being outscored by FBS competition 76-16. The 19-7 victory against William and Mary didn’t instill confidence with the wagering public last week.
The movement in the NFL lines has been slow. The only three numbers that moved more than a half-point thus far this week are the Eagles-Packers game (Philly went from +5 to +4), Chargers-Dolphins line (Dolphins inexplicably went from +16.5 to +15.5!!!) and Bucs-Rams (Tampa Bay went from +10 to +9). Otherwise, all is quiet on the gambling front.
Hopefully, the line-movers do a little better than one win this week. If you want to see what the Blitzalytics folks picked, check us out at: https://www.blitzalytics.com/betting.
Enjoy your football weekend! Now go pick some winners!