Image Credit: (Sam Greene/The Enquirer)
Written by: Nicholas Mullick Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-mullick-354076184/
Twitter: @nicholasmullick
Last week there were a lot of games that I was on the edge of my seat watching. Crazy ending results which resulted in some upsets. So we are back here yet again to make spread picks for week 15. Before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week.
Spread Picks Record Week 1 (8-8) Week 2 (9-7) Week 3 (9-6-1) Week 4 (6-8-2) Week 5 (4-11-1) Week 6 (8-6) Week 7 (9-5) Week 8 (7-8) Week 9 (7-5-1) Week 10 (7-7) Week 11 (5-9) Week 12 (12-3-1) Week 13 (8-7) Week 14 (6-7)
Total: (105-97-6)
Superlock Record (6-8) - Week 1: Baltimore Ravens, Week 2: Cleveland Browns, Week 3: Atlanta Falcons, Week 4: Houston Texans, Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8: Tennessee Titans, Week 9: Seattle Seahawks, Week 10 Dallas Cowboys, Week 11: Washington Commanders, Week 12: San Francisco 49ers, Week 13: Houston Texans, Week 14: Miami Dolphins
What a disappointing performance by the Miami Dolphins, that was a complete upset and it is against a beaten up and poorly coach Chargers team.
Now that I looked back on how I did Week 13 let's get to it with my spread picks for Week 14. As a reminder the spreads of each game are on DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) This feels like a very fishy speed as I thought this game would be higher with Seattle losing to Carolina last week. I am guessing it is a smaller spread because it looks like Brock Purdy dealing with an oblique injury. Maybe also that Deebo Samuel will be out until the postseasons and I think McCaffery is also banged up. I think that this would be a solid bounce back spot for Seattle, but my goodness the 49ers defense is so great. According to DVOA they have the second best defense in the NFL and a debate can be made that they should be number 1 against the Dallas Cowboys. I can really see the 49ers just win this game on defense if Seattle does not get Kenneth Walker back. I am leaning towards taking the 49ers here.
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Saturday Football
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
I should have sensed something was up last week with that Vikings spread last week, but I feel right into the trap. This feels a bit small, but the Colts are coming off a bye week. When looking at both teams the only similarity is that both secondaries have been terrible the past few weeks. It is clear that the vikings are better, but they need to play better on the defensive side of the ball. Luckily they are facing Matt Ryan and I'm sorry his arm is cooked. I would trust the Vikings offense over the Colts here, so I am picking the Vikings here and the Vikings would have been my survivor pick for this week if I was alive in survivor.
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-4)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
No word yet on who will start for Baltimore if it is going to be Anthony Brown or Tyler Huntley. It will depend on how Huntley does recovering from his concussion. Even if it is Brown starting, I really like the Ravens here. Excluding their running game and DE/EDGE Myles Garrett on defense, the Browns are terrible. I still find it funny that the Browns believe that they are a QB away from competing when Watson is back. Watson is still as rusty as a nail in an old toolbox. He has not performed like old Deshaun and the Ravens defense is getting back healthier which is a good sign. Could Baltimore play down to competition like they have done for most seasons, Yes. But I think that they will keep their heads in check and win this game.
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+3)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) You know, I am still in shock that the Dolphins played that way against the Los Angeles Chargers. You know what else is shocking, that the Dolphins needed heaters for a 55 degree weather game. I'm not joking about that.
If they can’t handle 55 degree weather, then I am concerned about how they will play in January. However, it might be me, but 7.5 points is just way too much. Especially as it is likely going to snow during the game and it will be tough to score in that type of weather. I think the Bills do win this game though, but I think this spread will change the closer the game starts, but I don’t think I want to bet this game until Friday as I feel like the spread will change and if this spread lowers then it is telling me on how the weather will be.
My Pick: Miami Dolphins (+7.5)
Sunday Football (1:00 pm)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Both teams have the belief that they can make the playoffs this year, however they are overlooking a more important value of the result of this game. It focuses on draft capital that will help out long term for both teams. Welcome to the 14th TANK GAME in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Look, I want Carolina to make the playoffs, but the NFC South is this season's Tanking Division, so they will be a part of tank games. For Pittsburgh I doubt Kenny Pickett plays this game at QB and they would be insane to start Mitch Trubisky as he sucked last week against the Ravens. If it was me I would have Mason Rudolph start as I want to see how he does in this game and I still want a reason why he was kept on the roster. If Trubisky starts, then I would 100% bet the Panthers, but it is still unknown. I overall think the Panthers are the better team right now and more properly coach coordinator wise. I have said this many times, but Pittsburgh needs to get rid of Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada and Special Teams Coordinator Danny Smith after this season. Both have been terrible coordinators that are holding this team back. I will lean towards taking Carolina here, but I would wait betting until it is confirmed who is the starting QB for the Steelers.
My Pick: Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5)
This is a very sleeper game this week. I am very interested to see how this pans out as the Jaguars have been playing good football. This spread to me feels that Vegas is not confident in the Cowboys after they did not play well against the Texans. Plus Trevor Lawrence is starting to perform like the player we all thought he would be which I am happy for. I had concerns about him as he was not great earlier in the season, but he put it all together. This week is a true test as the Cowboys defense is clearly the best defense in the NFL. You can maybe argue the 49ers, but Dallas has the edge. The Jaguars might overlook this game as they play on Thursday against the Jets which will be a very important matchup for both teams. I kind of like the Cowboys here and I may even bet on this game.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+14)
Not going on long here as this is a simple game to pick. If you have the Chiefs in survivor then pick them this week. However, the Chiefs play close games and I get the Texans are terrible, but I will take the points with Houston. I know one thing, I will not be betting this game.
My Pick: Houston Texans (-+14)
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1)
Personally, this is my favorite game of the week. The Jets are my favorite team in the NFL and the Lions are growing on me with Dan Campbell as the head coach. Plus the Lions have something they have not had in awhile, and that is hope. There is hope in the Lions and this is the most hyped I have been with them since Jim Caldwell was the head coach.
I will say one thing about Campbell that got me annoyed. When the Lions threw that ball to Penei Sewell I thought it was a great decision made by Campbell, but he basically admitted to being distracted by fans doing the wave in the crowd and did not hear the play call. No seriously he actually said that.
Like how in the world do you get distracted this easily in the most important part of the football game is just insane to me. He is lucky that play worked as he would have been heavily criticized if it did not work and they lost the game.
This is a very important game that is a must win for both teams. This feels like a low scoring close matchup for both teams and I like that the spread is close to a pick’em. The Jets to me are a lot better than the Lions are on paper, but as a Jets fan the offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is really starting to get on my nerves this season. Even though he has been the best offensive coordinator this franchise has had in years, he needs to do better with the playcalling. I am sold with the Jets as Saleh has been better coaching wise this season. I am happy about that despite the concerns that I had with him entering the year. If the Jets win they have to run all over the Lions as their run defense is not great. I can see Zonavan Knight have a strong performance in this game and my goodness has he been an excellent player since getting called up from the practice squad. When Breece Hall gets healthy next year this running game is terrifying with him, Knight, Carter, and maybe Robinson (If he wants to resign).
As for this game, I am taking the Jets here. Something that I factored into my decision in the Jets is that Goff has not been great playing on the road and he has not been that great playing outdoors. So I will take the Jets here and I am betting on this game.
My Pick: New York Jets (-1)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
Two NFC South teams facing off against each other, well now this is intriguing. As it is the 15th TANK GAME in the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. Yes I know the Falcons have a shot, but because this division is garbage I am making every bad matchup involving the NFC South a tank game. Finally the Falcons are starting Desmond Ridder at QB. One month too late in my opinion, but hey there finally doing it. I am interested in seeing what he does and luckily he is facing the New Orleans Saints who are just awful. I will forever respect Andy Dalton as he made a lot of memorable moments during his time in Cincinnati, but he’s done. He is a shell of his former self and it looks like Jameis Winston will not return the rest of the season which does not shock me as back injuries are no joke. It looks like the Saints have given up on the Taysom Hill experiment as well. They really need a QB and they can’t in the draft as their pick is Philadelphia Eagles property. The Saints are poorly coached as Dennis Allen is a terrible head coach. Their defense is mediocre and maybe with Marshon Lattimore potentially back it will improve, but I don’t know. I am leaning towards Atlanta here because Ridder is starting and I think he will be better than Mariota was this season.
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (+8.5)
Again, not going long here. I am shocked that this is not a 10 point spread as the Eagles are clearly the best team in the NFL and especially in the NFC Conference. The Bears season is pretty much over. They may have Justin Fields, but their defense is terrible. I like Fields, but he will have his hands full with the Eagles. I will take the Eagles here and I can see the Eagles winning this game by 20 points.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
Sunday Football (4:05 pm) Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-3)
Prepare yourselves guys as this is a big game, As it is the 16th TANK GAME In the Tournament for the 1st Overall Pick. This one is going to be the battle of the backups as it is Colt McCoy and the Arizona Cardinals facing off against Brett Rypein and the Denver Broncos. I will be quick here, there is no chance I will take the Denver Broncos for the rest of the season. So spread wise I will be taking Arizona as there is no way the Broncos should be 3 point favorites.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+3)
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (+1)
Am I the only one that thinks that both teams are garbage. I mean it is obvious that the Raiders are horrendous and poorly coached. The Patriots are absolutely poorly coached on the offensive side of the football. Matt Patricia and Joe Judge are horrendous offensive coordinators. Also the injuries for New England are starting to add up as well on offense with both WR DeVante Parker and RB Rhamondre Stevenson likely not playing in this game. I really want to abstain from picking this game as this can go either or. I am leaning towards New England and nobody should trust the Raiders. This game is a no bet for me though.
My Pick: New England Patriots (-1)
Sunday Football (4:25 pm) Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
This one is an easy one, I will take the Bengals in this game. Tampa Bay might be the worst team that currently has a playoff spot right now. Not only do the Buccaneers have a ton of injuries, but they also have terrible coaching. Todd Bowles is a horrible head coach and Byron Leftwich has been such a disappointment as an offensive coordinator. The Bengals are getting healthier and should take care of business. I will take the Bengals and there's going to be my superlock this week.
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
When looking at last week's games, I really don’t know what to think of the Tennessee Titans anymore. I don’t think they're garbage, but they are not a good team either. If the Titans were not in the AFC South, I believe that they would not have a .500 record right now. They got destroyed by the Jacksonville Jaguars which was not a good look. Look the Chargers have a ton of injuries, but so are the Titans as they have been beaten up a lot this season. Also the Titans and East coast team has ton travel to the west coast to play this game and I just don’t have the confidence in Tennessee this week. I will take the Chargers here.
My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Sunday Night Football New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5) This is a must win for both teams and it could potentially lead to them being out of playoff contention. The Giants may be well coached, but with the injuries catching up it is starting to be concerning. Washington is coming off a bye and should be well prepared in this game. The Commanders are also a home team in this game, but it does not help that FedEx field is the worst stadium in the NFL and that is not a joke. I feel the Commanders are the better team here and they should win, but I will take the points with the New York Giants.
My Pick: New York Giants (+4.5)
Monday Night Football Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7) I really wish this game got moved as I have no interest in watching a declining Packers team that should start Jordan Love face off against a Rams team that is beaten up and the season is going nowhere. I have no idea which side I want to lean on here as I think both teams are garbage, but when in doubt take the points and I think 7 is way too much to have the Packers as 7 point favorites. I can see Green Bay win, but they win it close.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+7)